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10NL QQ vs unknown opponent

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10NL QQ vs unknown opponent - Wed Feb 15, 2012, 04:36 AM
(#1)
94Tofer's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 217
Hi all Here's an interesting hand I encountered at 10NL, tough spot on the river



It was the villains first hand at the table. Something didn't feel right calling the strong river bet, so I went with my instinct and folded... Spots similar to this is where I leak the most in my game, calling off river bets with decent hands even though I can easily be beat... The plug to fix the leak is getting better overall . Any opinions of what to do on the river would be greatly appreciated (or even a different way to play it until the river )

Last edited by 94Tofer; Wed Feb 15, 2012 at 05:53 AM..
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 08:30 AM
(#2)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Hi 94Tofer,

Sorry for my eager first post, I misread the board. Now here's my analysis:

I think you played the hand fine and arguments for both folding and calling the river can be made. Villain's strong betsizing can indicate a strong range and he can be valuebetting a lot of boats plus the nutflush.

However, since the turn was checked through he could be valuebetting the , some smaller diamonds or even be turning some hands into a bluff because of boardtexture. I think the likelyhood of someone bluffing river on scary boards like a 4-flush and especially after a turn gets checked through increases in general.

That being said I actually would not mind a turnbet for some value from weaker made hands and draws plus as some sort of semibluff/protective bet.

Betting turn would serve two purposes here:

1. Value: OTT villain's x'ing-range will probably not contain a lot of flushes and mostly be comprised of a lot of pair+draw type hands which will often call a turnbet.

2. Semibluff: Some parts of villain's range can be some scared two pair or sets which wont raise you on such a scary turn. Against those hands you can bet as a semibluff cause a lot of rivers may improve us against that part of villain's range.

Either way betting maintains initiative and would allow us to checkback river when villain x/c's turn and x's river to us. That way we make some extra $ OTT while protecting us from getting bluffed. If villain x/r turn we have a pretty easy fold cause his range will be flushes far too often.

- Felix


Live Trainer




Last edited by PSO-xflixx; Wed Feb 15, 2012 at 08:47 AM.. Reason: misread the board
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 09:47 AM
(#3)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Villain's betting line is 100% consistent with a full house by the river. Not saying there is 100% chance that is what he holds, because there isn't, but it is very likely.

Some great insight by Felix on playing the turn!
 
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Thu Feb 16, 2012, 04:56 AM
(#4)
94Tofer's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 217
Thanks a lot for that Felix!! Some great stuff to think about Thinking about it now I was probably over paranoid about leaking chips on river bets when I could easily be beat... Betting the turn would definitely be the best play - if he check-raises its an easy fold, and also he will usually check the river to me so that I can check behind if needed. And also bluffs are definitely in his range on that river bet too
 

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