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Pot Odds for Draws

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Pot Odds for Draws - Wed Feb 15, 2012, 09:08 AM
(#1)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,024
(Community Coordinator)
This is one from this Months Cowboy Challenge.

Normally I wouldn't enter the pot with this starting hand and if I did and didn't like the flop I'd 'fit or fold' the hand.

In this spot though I felt that I was getting great Pot Odds to continue with my draw.

Notes on opponent that shoved the river are that he is a good TAG player. When he shoved I put him on Ace Jack.

My questions are:

1. Was I right to continue chasing the draw.

2. Should I have called his shove with the pair on the board (a shove on a paired board could suggest a boat), or did I do the right thing with my stack size.

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Raiser


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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 11:21 AM
(#2)
PINOY_HITMAN's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,717
let me give a shot at this raiser and let's see if how others comments on my way of thinking.

You try to defend your blind, 1BB to see the flop is cheap although you got a weak holding but could get a big pot once you hit and your in position with to 2 path to take raise/fold or check raise on the flop.
You semi-bluff the flop that was re-raise, at this point an easy fold for me.
last effort to to win the pot is a counter steal and check/fold after and you still have the 1100 stacks.

at the river with paired board, i will check/fold or call when i find it cheap.

Just my 2 cents
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 12:22 PM
(#3)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
I'm not sure I'd be risking myu tournament with this hand. Although the preflop minbet is a small bet, it did get a caller. If I flop a straight, I'm most likely good. If I flop a flush, same, but there's a good chance one of them will have a bigger heart. I think I would have folded here.

I think the flop bet is too small, less than 1/3 of the pot. Everyone gets priced in to chase their draws. When it gets reraised, that then doesn't mean all that much. He's probably hit the flop, but there's no telling how big. Still - it's very early (low buyin?) so I don't think he's doing this on a bluff. I can call here, but what if I miss the turn - do I chase the draw? It gets worse when the other guy flats the reraise.
Mathwise, I need to call 39 into 325 giving me plenty of odds to chase the draw (11% pot odds vs 8 outs twice)
There is the danger of the paired board of course. Generally I don't mind betting against a paired board, but I'm not calling a raise unless my hand has that paired card as well. Too many chances either of them was playing a 5.

The turn's a brick, and the guy makes a very small bet - 80 into a 364 pot. Second guy calls, and we get more than enough pot odds to keep chasing - 80 into 604 for 13% pot odds vs our 8 outs or 16%)

The river is where I think you really messed it up. You hit the straight. Nice. No flush possible. better. But after a bet/call on the flop, and a check/call on the turn, you now lead into the aggressor with a half pot bet. I would probably check it down to let him bet. But then he doesn't fold/call, he shoves. He's bet almost the minimum on on every street, and now he overbets the pot by more than 3x. What can he possibly have here that you're beating?
He could have a set of 5, but would he do this? Unlikely he holds 4,6 as well. Top pair Jacks? People at this level are certainly capable of shoving that here. Still - you show great strength with your river donk bet, and he still shoves almost 10x your bet.
So then the question is, can we muk a straight here after investing over half our stack? I think a lot of people will say by this point you're pot committed, but the fold would be the best optuion here. That said, I doubt I would fold the straight here.

-------------------------------------
keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 02:58 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Raiser!

Preflop, it's a speculative hand, but it's not many chips to see the flop, so I can absolutely understand calling and seeing the flop.

The flop gives an OESD. I wouldn't bet into the preflop raiser here. I'd check and see what happens with the other two opps. Another reason I wouldn't make the 39 chip bet here is that if the preflop raiser calls, then you're betting 39 into a pot of 208 (18.75%). If there is a bet on the turn, then an OESD has 8 outs, which is 16% equity to the turn.... which means that the 39 chip bet really prices the draw OUT.
When the preflop raiser min raises, calling the next 39 chips is only 10.7% of the pot, so that call does price in the OESD.

The turn is a blank and I like the check here and would do the same thing. The preflop raiser bets 80 that is called by the button. To call, it's 80 into a pot that will be 604 (13.2%). 8 outs for the OESD has 16% equity, so I'm calling it.

The river hits my OESD and doesn't complete the possible flush on the board. I'm absolutely making a value bet here. I'd bet at least 1/2 pot, if not 2/3's pot and the bet that is made is right in this range. The preflop raiser now shoves over us. The only hands that beat us are pocket pairs that hit the board. These are possible, but so are other pocket pairs, especially ones that are overpairs to the board, or a missed flush draw (especially if they had Jx of spades).

In this situation, I'm absolutely calling their shove. If they have the full house, so be it, I'll start up another tourney. If not, then I've got a sizable stack to make a deep run in the tourney.
This is a great example of where using good BRM comes in, as I want to be able to make the call here, without worrying about the buy-in amount.

When the opp flips over 77, just load up the next game and get back at it.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 03:23 PM
(#5)
r0ck.carver's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 201
I like the pre flop call but I think with a paired board I'm check/folding to any strong bet by the villain.
With only 8 outs to second best I think I'm cutting my losses and waiting for a better opportunity...IMO...like JWK's analysis , and yes after you hit on the riv and bet you are committed to the call as you beat so much of the villains range ul there but good example....
cheers thx for the post and gl r0ck
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 03:49 PM
(#6)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,024
(Community Coordinator)
Thank you guys for some great responses and plenty of food for thought here.

I thought this was a good hand to post because it was one of those spots where, if it were to happen, again I'd be very likely to play it the same way if I didn't learn something from it this time round.

What I'm trying to do is have a plan for each hand I play going forward and also try to get my bet sizing correct as this is an area where I'm weak at.

@PINOY_HITMAN, yes I see now that the villian's re-raise on the flop was a good indication for me to fold.

@Ov3rsight, yes your right, the post flop decision was crucial in this hand.

@JWK24, I can see now that betting into the pre-flop raiser wasn't the best thing to do.

@r0ck.carver, again, check folding the flop to the aggressive raiser would be a better option for me.

Thanks again guys for putting time and effort into your replies, it's much appreciated!

Raiser


Moderator

Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 04:03 PM
(#7)
r0ck.carver's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 201
Great minds think alike royal lol doing the same thing.... that play there was a big leak for me half a year ago and I still do it once in a long while esp if I have more than 1 table up and my attention wanders lol cheers m8 look forward to the next 1
 

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