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0% ITM at the $1 45-man

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0% ITM at the $1 45-man - Wed Feb 15, 2012, 12:57 PM
(#1)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Hi folks!

I have now played 15 $1 45-man SNGs and I have yet to cash in them. I've looked through my previous tourneys and I just don't know what I'm doing wrong. I built my bankroll from 10$ to 80$ through these 45-man SNGs but it's like I hit a brick wall all of a sudden, and I can't win anything. Is there something fundamental I don't know about or is it just a matter of variance? It feels like there's something up with my play but I can't put my finger on it. Any help would be appreciated.

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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 01:10 PM
(#2)
PINOY_HITMAN's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,717
a break for a day or two can help you pass the storm of today and for sure the sun will shine tomorrow or the day after.

Good Luck and enjoy the PSO video...
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 01:52 PM
(#3)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
The first thing I'm thinking is to check your stats. If you have a program like Poker Tracker or Holdem Manager, see what is different between these last fifteen games and the ones before where you won. Some possibilities:




1 ---- Hole cards. Are you getting groups seven and eight hands in these games in the later stage? What is your playing percentage in the two rounds prior to the money and the one with the bubble. (playing percentage is any hand where you saw the flop - my definition)

2 ---- Stake position. When you get to the final table, where are you? If you are usually in the top third when winning, it shows early aggression. If you are in the bottom third, you might be too tight or too passive in the early rounds. (Hedgehog's usually 9 of 9, so you know my problem.)

3 ---- All-in hand selection. By this I am asking if you go all-in by choice or is it a forced play? If your final table all-in hands are forced, you might be too passive. If you are pushing all-in too many times, you are either too aggressive or was too low.

4 ---- Opponent's stakes. Check out your dollar value when you get to that final table. It does no good getting to the final table as 5 of 9 just to find out those above you are beating you by a 2-1 ratio or better. Can be hard fighting those big sticks.

5 ---- Win percentage. Take the hands you won over the number of hands played. The higher the percentage, the better your hand selection. A high percentage indicates solid player. I want mine to be over 25 percent. Note that the calculation does not use total hands at this point. When I do use total hands, I find a percentage over 7% is strong.

6 ---- Attitude. Check to see if these games are coming at a time when other outside factors are adding stress. Take care of family first. Separate work from poker. As you already heard, if all else fails, take a day off, play a non-cash game, use play chips in a different style of poker as a learning experience. Even if this is a Cowboy Challenge, one or two days off shouldn't make your goal unachievable.
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 02:30 PM
(#4)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feskprins View Post
Hi folks!

I have now played 15 $1 45-man SNGs and I have yet to cash in them. I've looked through my previous tourneys and I just don't know what I'm doing wrong. I built my bankroll from 10$ to 80$ through these 45-man SNGs but it's like I hit a brick wall all of a sudden, and I can't win anything. Is there something fundamental I don't know about or is it just a matter of variance? It feels like there's something up with my play but I can't put my finger on it. Any help would be appreciated.

....
Hi! Feskprins,

It could just be matter of variance if you can't pinpoint the problem and you haven't made any changes to your playing style/ hand selection etc. Personally I have been running bad for last couple of weeks and I couldn't put a foot right. If I have had big cards the flop would come small/middle cards and vice versa, basically couldn't connect w/ flop to continue. If I flop a set someones got a bigger set or flopped straight if not they would get their on the turn and no chance of me filling up on the river etc. etc.

When you are running like this, probably the best thing is take a day or two off to get re-focused and re-motivated. Instead study your game and watch some training videos to refresh/revise some concepts.

But the main thing is to stick with your playing style and not try to force the issue and hopefully things will turn around sooner rather than later. BTW things have started turning around for me since yesterday and so will they for you soon. Good Luck

Cheers
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 03:11 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hey Feskprins!

Sounds to me like a bad variance run. I've been playiing Moxie's challenge (45 man play $$ games since I'm in the US in sets of 100). I've had multiple runs of 15-20 games in them where I'm not ITM. Streaks like that are why I try to use games with a lower % of my bankroll for these s&g's... I try to make sure that I have 75-100 buy-in's before I play a given level.

Hope the cards turn for you.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Feb 16, 2012, 11:56 AM
(#6)
wetmoose 613's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 434
ChromeStar
hey feskprins
i ve got more or less the same problem,so i did some checking. the graphs for my .50 and my $1are almost mirror images.not sure why but i did find my vpip and hands played were both up about 2 % in the $1 and a hand review did show a lot more river beats where i got in good/made the right read.
this part is speculation but i do believe the dollar attracts both the inexperienced(fish) and the more accomplished(shark looking for a meal)and therefore is a difficult level to play.the war between luck and skill with us in the middle getting it from both sides
or it could just be variance, I ve been wrong before

gl y all

Last edited by wetmoose 613; Thu Feb 16, 2012 at 11:58 AM.. Reason: corrections
 
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Thu Feb 16, 2012, 05:44 PM
(#7)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Hey guys

I took your advice and had two days off, although I played some cash games today (which I'm waaaaaay better at). I don't think it's just a bad variance run, even though I've lost pretty much all my flips and 60/40 in critical spots. It's possible that I've been suffering from "poker fatigue" (in lack of a better description for it) which obviously makes my play suffer a bit. I'll go through the points and advices you all posted and see if it gets any better. If not, I'll take more time off to study and clear my head a bit.

Thank you all, I really mean that. Very helpful!

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Thu Feb 16, 2012, 08:42 PM
(#8)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feskprins View Post
It's possible that I've been suffering from "poker fatigue" (in lack of a better description for it) which obviously makes my play suffer a bit.
:
Hello! again Feskprins,

That is a good point which reminds me, I read somewhere that once Doyle Brunson was going through a huge down swing and he couldn't figure out what he was doing wrong. One of his friends pointed out to him that he saw him in card rooms playing poker everyday and asked him when was the last time he took a break from poker. Doyle realized that he was playing way too much poker and it had started to effect his play so he decided to take a break from poker.

It is true when you have been playing too much poker and running bad, I tend to make bad decisions as when you are suppose to call you end of folding and vice versa.

Good Luck

Cheers
 
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 06:48 AM
(#9)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
This is getting pretty ridiculous. I haven't cashed in 24 tourneys, including the $0.50 turbos. I still don't know if I'm playing bad or if it's just a run of negative variance. Feels like a combination of the two, but it's still really weird. Sucks that I can't afford a coach, because it feels like I've hit a brick wall and I'm not really sure on what I should do to turn this around.

EDIT: By the way, the fact that I haven't cashed in 24 tourneys has not affected my play. I wasn't even aware of this until a couple of minutes ago, so you can rule that out as a contributing factor.

....

Last edited by Feskprins; Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:57 AM..
 
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 08:00 AM
(#10)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Hi there, one of the forum users was offering to free coach people but can not remember the users name,was in beginners questions I think.
 
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 01:32 PM
(#11)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Hey Fesk, 15 games is by no means any good sample size to know what is going wrong. PM me and I will be happy to give you some FREE analysis.

Giddy Up!
 
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Tue Feb 21, 2012, 08:40 AM
(#12)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
Hey Fesk, 15 games is by no means any good sample size to know what is going wrong. PM me and I will be happy to give you some FREE analysis.

Giddy Up!
Probably not, but when you go 27 tourneys without even cashing once, and then (finally, I might add) mincash in the 28th, something is definitely wrong. I just started sucking at poker all of a sudden and it feels really weird. I'll send you a PM and hopefully we'll be able to fix it. Thank you so much, Chris. This really means a lot! Just don't laugh at my (hopefully temporary) terrible playing.

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