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NL .05. 10-10 late position. flops a ten but a flush draw. all in. tough turn.

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NL .05. 10-10 late position. flops a ten but a flush draw. all in. tough turn. - Wed Feb 15, 2012, 03:16 PM
(#1)
FurryWallz's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 52
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umm, so I kinda had a vibe this guy was drawing to diamonds, I didnt know how strong he actually was, but I did feel like he was gonna call all my chips if i reraised all-in. I pushed anyway (truly hoping he would fold) but was willing to take the gamble. Should I have done that? Not knowing the exact strength of his hand, should I try and force them off flush draws (i.e make them pay for it?) or should I roll and maybe push the turn if the draw doesnt complete. I dunno. maybe it was just unlucky and I'm thinking in hindsight. Anyway, here's the hand.

PokerStars Hand #75650857904: Hold'em No Limit (€0.02/€0.05 EUR) - 2012/02/15 16:34:54 NT [2012/02/15 15:04:54 ET]
Table 'Baize IV' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: piller11 (€1.08 in chips)
Seat 2: papio86 (€5 in chips)
Seat 6: FurryWallz (€4.40 in chips)
Seat 7: mell1967 (€5.07 in chips)
Seat 8: Punamütsikee (€4.02 in chips)
Seat 9: rufaeh (€5 in chips)
Punamütsikee: posts small blind €0.02
rufaeh: posts big blind €0.05
soplak: sits out
marko112112: sits out
ANGLE_TRINIY: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FurryWallz [Ts Th]
piller11: folds
papio86: folds
FurryWallz: raises €0.10 to €0.15
mell1967: calls €0.15
Punamütsikee: folds
rufaeh: folds
*** FLOP *** [Qd 4c Td]
FurryWallz: bets €0.15
mell1967: raises €0.35 to €0.50
FurryWallz: raises €0.50 to €1
mell1967: raises €3.92 to €4.92 and is all-in
FurryWallz: calls €3.25 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (€0.67) returned to mell1967
*** TURN *** [Qd 4c Td] [2d]
*** RIVER *** [Qd 4c Td 2d] [9c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FurryWallz: shows [Ts Th] (three of a kind, Tens)
mell1967: shows [Kd Jd] (a flush, King high)
mell1967 collected €8.50 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot €8.87 | Rake €0.37
Board [Qd 4c Td 2d 9c]
Seat 1: piller11 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: papio86 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: FurryWallz showed [Ts Th] and lost with three of a kind, Tens
Seat 7: mell1967 (button) showed [Kd Jd] and won (€8.50) with a flush, King high
Seat 8: Punamütsikee (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: rufaeh (big blind) folded before Flop
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 03:35 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi FurryWallz.

Here is your hand posted in a replayer (it is much easier to see graphically):



Going to the flop here, when your raise gets called you are setting up an SPR of right around 11.5. This is a medium SPR, and definately favors you stacking off with a set.

Also...

The worst case for you (besides QQ) is what you see: KJs. Against this hand you have roughly 57% equity with your set. This also argues for you to get as much as you can in on the flop.

Also...

You do not give info on the opponent specifically, but anyone who is pretty "normal" would tend to 3bet an LP raiser holding QQ on the BTN; this means you probably have to down grade the threat of QQ. Plus, someone who would tend to play "tricky" and NOT 3bet that hand, will probably do the same with AA/KK and still follow the sort of flop action you see. Obviously, you;d LOVE to get all in vs. AA/KK here.

So when you add it all up, there really is no reason NOT to "go to the wall" here with your middle set...

Yes, sometimes you will be "crushed" by QQ, but not very often.

Yes, sometimes you will see a strong 2 way draw that will get there about 43% of the time, but far more often you will tend to be facing a oesd or flush draw (usually with overs to be this aggro), and you are well ahead of any of these.

In my opinion you;d have made a far bigger "mistake" in folding 2nd set here, than calling and losing to a very strong draw. As I see it, there was no mistake by you in this hand at all!

Well played, bad luck.

Hope it helps.

-JDean

(P.S. You can find the PSO hand replayer that allows graphical posting of your hand histories here: http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/replayer/ Instructions for the use of the replayer can be found in the upper left, jsut under the banners. If you need any help using the replayer, you can also pm me, or any of the Hand Analyzers/mods and we will be glad to help you out! Welcome to the Hand analysis forum! -JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Wed Feb 15, 2012 at 04:05 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 03:57 PM
(#3)
FurryWallz's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 52
BronzeStar
Thanks JDean, it means a lot here. I was really wondering. I have a question though, should I have flatted his original raise and pushed the turn you think? or made him pay it all if he wants to see that card?
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 04:02 PM
(#4)
FurryWallz's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 52
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Also, that hand replayer is soooo coool. Im a noob i know. but awesome!
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 04:04 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by FurryWallz View Post
Thanks JDean, it means a lot here. I was really wondering. I have a question though, should I have flatted his original raise and pushed the turn you think? or made him pay it all if he wants to see that card?
Hi again FW...

No, I don't think you need to do that at all. COULD you do that versus some opp's; yes. SHOULD you do it versus all opp's...no way.

You lead the flop with your 2nd set for a bit under half pot (15c into 37c). This is perfectly reasonable.

1) The pot is relatively small compared to the strength of your hand. With no surety the opp will bet, there is nothing wrong with taking the lead in building a pot yourself.

2) The board does have 2 broadway cards, either of which may be in this player's range to call a pre flop raise in position. If he will call, no sense in NOT charging him something.

3) The board does have some draw threats, so you really do not want to give totally free cards.

So your lead bet passes the test of "reason"...you bet an amount which denied odds to the likeliest draws, but did not bet so much that it was not "inviting" for weaker hands to call bad.

When the villain RAISES your lead though, you have to think he probably has SOMETHING here. With even minimal ranging saying he probably has something, you simply fall back the equity thoughts I out lined above. You are ahead of EVERYTHING except QQ, and QQ isn't all that likely to be here. Then you move on to thinking about the best way to maximize your hand...

Since the villian showed "interest" by raising your lead, there is no reason NOT to 3bet him.

About the only thing that can do for you here is allow an "action killer" card to peel, one that will either make him reluctant to put value in for you, OR one that makes you reluctant to get value in for yourself (if you are still ahead).; that is not a good idea when it looks like you can get value in with the best of it NOW, ya know?

To make a 3bet by you "worse" than a flat, you'd really have to think there are a LOT of "bluffs" in this guy's range. In that case, you will tend to fold out his bluffs and gain nothing more than what he put in on the raise. But if you think this guy will at least flat and peel 1 card in the face of your small 3bet (you made it $1 to go after he raised to 50c to go), then that is a GOOD 3bet; and a lot of semi bluffs would have a really hard time mucking to such a small 3bet.

When you do 3bet, this is an easy call of his jam: if he wakes up with QQ, or sucks out, so be it!

So all in all, I think you played it fine, and playing it slower could have easily either lost you value, or allowed a card to peel that beats you.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Wed Feb 15, 2012 at 04:56 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 04:27 PM
(#6)
FurryWallz's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 52
BronzeStar
thanks for the insight! One more question. I'm sorry to be a bother here. How did you embed that into your post? and is it possible to embed it into a facebook post or will it always be linked to the website to view from there?
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 04:49 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by FurryWallz View Post
thanks for the insight! One more question. I'm sorry to be a bother here. How did you embed that into your post? and is it possible to embed it into a facebook post or will it always be linked to the website to view from there?
Hi!

No bother at all...

When you've loaded your hand, and hit "quick save", you can go to the "link builder" (the blue chain icon just above the replayer "guts" on the right). In there, you can select a link type.

the link type you select, and then copy/paste in here, is the one for "forum/blog".

If you click the downward facing black arrow just to the right of the link type box, a drop down menu options to give you options. Select the type of link you want for the application you need, and copy/paste that where you want it!

Viola! That should do it!

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 05:13 PM
(#8)
FurryWallz's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 52
BronzeStar
im getting mean value on PSO. Im glad i joined. Thanks JDean
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 05:22 PM
(#9)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by FurryWallz View Post
im getting mean value on PSO. Im glad i joined. Thanks JDean
Hi Again FW!

If you really want "mean value", check out the "Member of the Month" promotion here:
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/promotions#MOW

And put an application in this forum here:

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...r-of-the-Month

Simply by posting a little "story" about your poker history, and submitting links to a blog you've written and a forum thread you've started, you qualify for a chance to win a ticket package to the Poker Stars "Saturday Line up" worth $150.

...and if you do win, and then you blog aobut each of the MTTs you paly (or submit 3 videos you make following your play in the MTTs), you can qualify to receive ANOTHER $150 package of tickets!

THAT is pretty "mean" value!



-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Wed Feb 15, 2012 at 05:34 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 08:50 PM
(#10)
FurryWallz's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 52
BronzeStar
awshome. thanksh again.
 

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