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You Choose the ACTION Hand #2 (The Turn #1)

View Poll Results: What do we do on this turn?
1) FOLD (aw c'mon, are we REALLY folding the nuts!) 0 0%
2) CALL 3 21.43%
3) RAISE small, making it $230 to $285 to go (min raise to roughly 1.5 times more raise) 0 0%
4) RAISE medium, making it $286 to $350 to go (1.5 times more raise to roughly 2 times more raise) 2 14.29%
5) RAISE large, making it $351 to $405 (all in) to go? 8 57.14%
6) BLANK (for my use to track voting, please do not select) 1 7.14%
Voters: 14. You may not vote on this poll

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You Choose the ACTION Hand #2 (The Turn #1) - Thu Feb 16, 2012, 02:21 PM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Ok folks, we are BACK for the turn card!

ACTION:

After thinking about our hand for a few seconds, we elect to CALL and slide $75 into the pot.

As we suspected, the Kid tosses his hand into the muck and sits back trying to chat up the mid 20's girl a bit.

The new guy frowns, and calls as well.

The pot = $312



The turn card rolls off, the 8d.

New guy checks first to act.

Dentist looks down at his stack, looks at our stack, and looks over at the new guy.
He calmly cuts out $115 and quietly slides them into the pot. After doing so, he adopts a neutral posture.

Before we act, we look over at new guy, and see him cutting out some chips. He counts both the stack he has cut out ($115), and the amount he has behind, and seems to think for a moment. He then looks back at his cards and seems to think some more. He hasn't yet looked up from his own deliberations, and action is on us...

Do we...

1) FOLD (aw c'mon, are we REALLY folding the nuts!)
2) CALL
3) RAISE small, making it $230 to $285 to go (min raise to roughly 1.5 times more raise)
4) RAISE medium, making it $286 to $350 to go (1.5 times more raise to roughly 2 times more raise)
5) RAISE large, making it $351 to $405 (all in) to go?
6) BLANK (for my use to track voting, please do not select)

Please remember to post why you voted as you did to stimulate the discussion!

Thanks!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Thu Feb 16, 2012 at 03:34 PM..
 
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Thu Feb 16, 2012, 02:27 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
bah...

Forgot to un-check the "request evaluation" box!


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu Feb 16, 2012, 02:36 PM
(#3)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
JD you have the wrong player checking . just don't want folks to get the wrong stack size. guess it doesn't matter since both have us covered though
 
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Thu Feb 16, 2012, 02:46 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
JD you have the wrong player checking . just don't want folks to get the wrong stack size. guess it doesn't matter since both have us covered though
TY for the catch MT.

I made a couple changes to the graphic to get the right guy marked, and re-uploaded it. It is correct now.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu Feb 16, 2012, 05:16 PM
(#5)
EmotiveKiwi's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 140
I'm getting it all in here....

The last time we saw The Dentist act this way we put him on a strong hand and his bet size looks like it's for value. I say we trust our previous read on him and put him on a hand. I'm thinking a set or maybe even a lesser straight with flush draw possibilities. If he has what i'm putting him on then i don't think he's folding to our shove.

The new guy doesn't seem entirely comfortable with his hand. I'm putting him on a marginal hand perhaps a flush draw or AK. If he is on a flush draw i'm happy to apply pressure by going all in and i'm happy if he just folds out leaving us heads up with Dentist.

As I said, if the Dentist believes he has a strong hand I don't think he's folding and has a pretty good price to call our shove. If he sucks out then good on him but i'd rather not have to make a decision on the river.

And if both fold, we win 427 chips and that is not a bad result either.


Last edited by EmotiveKiwi; Thu Feb 16, 2012 at 05:19 PM..
 
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Thu Feb 16, 2012, 07:53 PM
(#6)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
I am moving AI here for two reasons:

- Firstly for value as I think the bet by the dentist looks like a value bet to me so if we go AI he will have to call another $290 to win $832 which is a good enough price to call with his A,K. I think we are more likely to get called on the turn then river as the opp's could put us some sort of a draw. Also there are a lot of cards on the river that could kill our action. I mean we could hope that the opps will put more money into the pot on the river but they might not.

- Secondly I would like to protect our hand and charge max. for re-draws. As I have put the dentist on big ace, he could easily have Ad,Kd and could be drawing to nut flush. Also I put mid 30's guy on suited connectors so he could have turned two pairs, if has I want to charge max to outdraw us.

If they both call we need our hand to hold up and it would be a nice pay day. If they both fold its not a bad result either as we will add $332 to our stack.

Last edited by deadeyz; Fri Feb 17, 2012 at 09:16 AM..
 
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Fri Feb 17, 2012, 02:08 AM
(#7)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
I voted for the small raise, thinking that the dentist will fire back. The other opponent may call also, and the risk is that he may have a potential suckout hand. If the board doesn't pair, they're all in on the river.
 
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Fri Feb 17, 2012, 04:15 AM
(#8)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
I voted for shoving.

I would have flatted had I thought the new guy would simply call. If the river paired the board or was a diamond, I could potentially get away from the hand. But since he is so busy counting his chips, it seems he plans on raising. If he raises, I will have to call. Thus, I would rather be the aggressor. Furthermore, any raise I make is going to commit me to this hand. But moving all in with a pot sized raise gives me some fold equity, especially if the new guy goes over the top.

Worst case scenario seems to be that one of the players has a set. This gives them about 20% chance at a full house on the river. If the other player has AK diamonds, then they too will have about 20% chance for a flush on the river. If this goes three way to the river I've got about 60% chance of winning. If my reraise can get the hand heads up my chances go up to about 80%.

Then again I tend to give away money in ring games...

Roland GTX
 
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Fri Feb 17, 2012, 08:40 AM
(#9)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
i'm calling - 2

looks like the dentist has picked up a set of 8's or a straight, we could actually have the same hand and split the pot if no club or diamond comes on the river (hopefully he does not have JT of diamonds).

seat 9 (imo) doesn't like his hand that much any more and checks if it's worth calling another bet with his top pair (maybe 2 pair), i don' want to chase him away with a raise, more money is probably going in on the river anyway.

if we are chopping with the dentist all our profit is coming from seat 9, so, he must be kept in.

660-ish in the pot (if s9 calls), 300-ish behind, if dentist doesn't ship himself he should call with any sort of hand on the river and pay us.
 
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Fri Feb 17, 2012, 09:28 AM
(#10)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Django66 View Post
i'm calling - 2

looks like the dentist has picked up a set of 8's or a straight, we could actually have the same hand and split the pot if no club or diamond comes on the river (hopefully he does not have JT of diamonds).

seat 9 (imo) doesn't like his hand that much any more and checks if it's worth calling another bet with his top pair (maybe 2 pair), i don' want to chase him away with a raise, more money is probably going in on the river anyway.

if we are chopping with the dentist all our profit is coming from seat 9, so, he must be kept in.

660-ish in the pot (if s9 calls), 300-ish behind, if dentist doesn't ship himself he should call with any sort of hand on the river and pay us.
i'd range them pretty similarly with the exception of, i think the new guy does like his hand and made an attempt at hollywooding with his frown. have seen this quite a few times live. almost always the guy has a hand... if he really didn't like his hand, he wouldn't be obvious about a frown. you might catch a micro expression frown (a fraction of a second subconscious expression) but usually not very obvious. and then to be cutting chips out?
so i think now is the time to get it in so as to charge the max for 2 pair or set type hands to fill up.
if the dentist is on J10 as well,( hopefully not diamonds like you said) we're freerolling the river to our club draw... i think they both like their hands enough .........ship it.
my only problem with a call here is if the board pairs on the river, then what? yuck!

Last edited by mtnestegg; Fri Feb 17, 2012 at 09:35 AM..
 
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Fri Feb 17, 2012, 09:45 AM
(#11)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
if he really didn't like his hand, he wouldn't be obvious about a frown. you might catch a micro expression frown (a fraction of a second subconscious expression) but usually not very obvious. and then to be cutting chips out?
in my experience, if someone fumbles chips before it's his turn to act he wants to discourage someone before him to raise and to continue cheaply in the hand.
 
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Fri Feb 17, 2012, 10:01 AM
(#12)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Django66 View Post
in my experience, if someone fumbles chips before it's his turn to act he wants to discourage someone before him to raise and to continue cheaply in the hand.
eeyup seen this too, but they're usually much more conscious about what others think about what they're doing. and this guy has yet to look up. guess we'll see...
i also think the board is just too wet here to not charge a premium.
and i forgot to mention, we were told by a reg. the new guy likes to go to showdown once in a hand, guess we'll see how that works out as well.. how's your luck bubble feelin'

Last edited by mtnestegg; Fri Feb 17, 2012 at 10:34 AM..
 
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Fri Feb 17, 2012, 10:09 AM
(#13)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I have voted to get it all in now with a raise over the top of the dentist's bet.

I think both players will be a bit surprised by this move and have to reevaluate, as to my mind they have been concentrating much more on each other than on us so far this hand. I think they will have a rethink and have to conclude we are very strong here.

I do expect one or both of them to have a made hand, with potential draws in there as well, including some redraws that could beat us if we let them see another card cheap. I would be happy if they both fold, but frankly my expectation is that the dentist will come along with any hand from a straight or flush draw, top pair or higher.

The other opp I would only expect to call us here with 2 pairs or a set already in hand, giving them potential to hit a full house on the river. As they haven't entered this round of betting yet I think it is too expensive if we shove for them to call on only a draw or a single pair.

So ideally we get heads up with the dentist and have him crushed. If they both come along with better hands or big draws, at least we know we are ahead (or at least equal) with our own hand having potential to improve.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Fri Feb 17, 2012, 12:03 PM
(#14)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
I voted for all in here.

Looks like the dentist hit something if its two pair or trips he's paying us so lets charge the max for him to outdraw us (i think he will pay us off no matter what at this point.) so the other guy cutting chips and thinking about hand. Is it a draw ? If so I'm very happy to apply pressure here.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

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Fri Feb 17, 2012, 12:19 PM
(#15)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,822
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
I'm calling here and this is the reason why. The opp that Tilty the Dentist wants to go to war with has counted out chips to call and is most likely looking to raise. Tilty is more likely to call or 3-bet a raise from that opp compared to us... because in his eyes, he's trying to get back at him for suckinng out on him.
I want the pot to build and to have a chance to get it all in... from both, not just one of them.

If we call and the 3rd player does raise, I think there's a very good chance that Tilty can 3-bet him (either a bet or a shove). If the 3-bet doesn't get all of our stack in... then I'm going to shove over them... but I'm not shoving first and giving either a chance to get out of the hand.
As of now, I've got the nuts and I want to be able to get as many chips from both of them as possible.

I'll call here, let them do the raising/3-betting and then I'll come over the top of them... if I'm not all in by then anyway. I want them to go to war with each other so that I can sneak in thru the backdoor and pull the pot right out from under them.


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REM - Sat Feb 18, 2012, 05:10 AM
(#16)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Observation:
The dentist checks out our stack, as well as the new guys stack, and calmly bets $115 (40% of the pot) – These actions look very strong. Eyeing stacks is a tell, that lets you know he’s thinking about the best way to get the rest of our stack. Betting $115 will inflate the pot size, it will be $542 - $657 (depending if he gets one or two calls). This sets up a perfectly sized pot to get the rest of our money on the river.

The new guy has already set his chips up for a call, and may be contemplating a 3bet. However, he may be unsure if he has the best hand right now, so i think he'll take the 'passive' line, and just call.

My hand – Villains hands – What I’m afraid of:
At the moment I have the ‘nuts’, but there are a lot of hands that can still draw out on me. My read on the new guy stays the same – I think he’s on a ‘set’, he slowed down his aggression because the dentist raised his flop bet.
My read on the dentist has narrowed – The way he eyed both our stacks, seems very strong. The hands that fit this ‘tell’, and actions up to this point are JsTs and JdTd. He’s a wild card, so he may also be doing this with AdKd, as well as ‘sets’. I can eliminate him holding AcQc, the hand I was afraid of on the flop.

If my ranges are correct, it’s possible I’ll be in a ‘chopped’ pot. The good news is that I’ll be on a freeroll; the dentist may be on a freeroll as well. There are so many cards I don’t want to see on the ‘river’, they are, any diamond; Ks; Kh; 9s; 9h; 8s; 8h; 8c; 7s; 7h; and 7c, for a total of 19 cards (give or take a couple; depends if the dentist is on a flush draw and/or the new guy has the 9d as part of his ‘set’; 41% of the deck are possible bad cards for me! If I can reduce that percentage, I’ll fell much better about my hand.

Many questions are looming in my head:
Can I get the new guy off his ‘set’?
He can’t feel that he has the best hand if I ‘shove’, but is he willing to accept 2:1 odds for a 23% chance to boat up? If he feels the dentist will join, he’ll get the correct odds (3:1; plus he has money behind). He has risked his stack before, I think there’s a good chance he’ll do it again.

If I shove will I be facing a ‘chopped’ pot?
Assuming I shove (in a possible two way chopped pot), and they both call, I will be risking $405 to win $359 (312 ‘pot’ + 405 new guy ‘call’ = 717 / 2 = 359). There’s a 41% (at most; might be much less) chance that I lose. There’s a 15% chance I will take the whole pot down (7 clubs). The balance I ‘might’ chop or win the pot outright.

Do I lose value by shoving?
I think the majority of the time, the new guy is calling a shove with his ‘set’. If he folds I have possibly reduced the percentage of cards I might have lost to on the river. If my read is wrong, and he doesn’t have a set, I’m losing value.

Could I just call (28% of my stack; 42% total) and get away from this hand if a pair ‘rivered’?
That means that I’ll be investing $115, and possibly folding 23% of the time. I'm not 100% comfortable that my read is correct (new guy). I could just call, and reevaluate on the river. This may cost me some value, but may save me $290. However, if the new guy reraises now (on the turn), I’m getting it all-in.

The last concern I have is if I just call, can I get value on the river?
If a T, 6, or a non-pairing club show up on the river, I might lose some action. With this scenario, the new guy checks, the dentist might shove (pot size bet), I call, and then the new guy may fold.

All in all, I am on the upside of a coin flip at worse, if I shove. Depending on the exact hands our opponents have, I may be sitting much better than expected. I don’t need to do any other calculations to see that it’s a +EV line to shove. On the flip side, calling and reevaluating on the ‘river’ would also be a +EV line.

I’m going to take the cautious +EV ‘line’, I call. With positive results on the river, I may still get more value with this hand.
.
 
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Sat Feb 18, 2012, 08:26 PM
(#17)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,511
(Head Trainer)
I'm all in.

I see no reason to delay getting it in right now. We have the nuts. The dentist is suddenly showing all the strength tells, which is great for us when holding the nuts. The other guy is a known station who has already counted out $115 call and is eyeballing the rest of his stack, oblivious to us. I will not be surprised at all if he calls and the dentist is calling for sure.

Don't be so worried about another JT, that chance is really remote. It's possible of course, but there are so many other hands in their ranges. Remember in our KQ hand the dentist was showing the same strength tells with AK (top/top). His understanding of hand values is poor. IOW he will be acting this way with any 2 pair+, maybe even pair plus draw hands. There are so many scary river cards that might kill our action, it's better to get the dentist (and likely the station) in right now.

For those saying they will call and consider folding to a bad river card, I really don't like this. Think about the price we'll be getting. Now tell me which river cards beat us? A diamond? A paired board? A club? I have no idea tbh. The dentist doesn't understand hand values and is tilting, he could shove with or without help. Do we really want to play a guessing game in a massive pot if he shoves a scary river card? I sure don't, so I'm not going to worry about it. I can't make any mistakes on the river if I'm all in already.


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Sat Feb 18, 2012, 09:47 PM
(#18)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Ok Folks!

The group voted for Raise large. Any amount in the Raise Large category would result in the same thing, only across different streets, so it really doesn't matter if we raise less than all in now, or raise all in now. I am going to finish the write up based on an All in move by us.

Time for our Resolution...

We look at both opponents, and announce 'All in" while moving our remaining $405 into the pot.

Pot = $832

New guy thinks for a second, and then slides $405 forward to call.

Pot = $1237

The Dentist looks shocked, and says, "What the F***"!

He stews for a second, looks across at the new guy, and says, "Screw it! I'm all in!" He quickly stands up at his seat, knocking his chair over...

Main Pot = $1537, Side Pot = $424.

New guy expels his breath loudly, leans forward over his chips and cards crossing his arms while staring at the pot. The Dentist waits about 10 seconds, then says, "C'mon you STATION! ACT!!!"

New guy thinks for maybe 10 more seconds, seemingly ignoring the Dentist.

The Dentist says, 'Oh Jeez, Time!"

Reg 2 says, 'Hey, that's kind of rude, this is a big pot."

Dentist replies, "Shut the F*** up, you aren't in the hand. I can call time whenever I want!"

Reg 2 says, "Whatever, as* h***!" While The New Guy sits up again, still thinking.

The dealer waits about 5 more seconds, and calls "FLOOR"!

The Dentist glares at you and the New Guy, leaning forward with his hands on the rail as Sophie walks over, and leans down to speak quietly to the dealer.

Sophie then announces, "Gentlemen, time has bin called. Seat 9 now has seex-ty zeconds to make heez decision. He will be given a 10 zecond count down, and if he has not acted by zee end of that time, heez hand will be dead. Please watch your language."

The Dentist whispers, "whatever"...

New guy leans back and expels his breath again, as Sophie looks at her watch.

"Joo haff 10 seconds sir...9...8...7..."

New guy whispers, "I call".

Sophie says, "Zhank joo gentlemen, please enjoy your game." And walks away quickly...

The dealer seems to you to take a little extra time gathering and sorting the side pots, and you grin to yourself thinking she is probably needling the Dentist a bit. Meanwhile, New guy flips his hand up on the table (even though he is not required to do so), and shows Ad 9d.

Main Pot = $1537, Side pot = $848.

The Dentist yells, "HA! I knew it!" and he tables Kd Td face up.

You know you do not have to show your hand yet, so you do not roll it over...

The Dealer taps the table twice...

She burns a card...

And rolls over...

The Ace of Spades!

New guy claps his hands once loudly, smiling and yells "YES!" at the same time the Dentist explodes! Dentist yells, "You stinking DONKEY! EVERYTIME you suck out on me!".

the Dealer pushes forward the A K 9 of the community cards to indicate which cards were played on the board by the Side pot winner. She moves the side pot to the New guy, while the Dentist keeps muttering loudly.

You roll over your JTc and the New guy looks a little confused when the Dealer pushes you the main pot. She pulls back the cards New guy played on the board, and moves forward 9 8 7 to indicate which cards you played on the board.

Dentist looks at you and says, "And of course I should expect YOU are in their with your normal cheese hand ___! You are the luckiest son of a (he sees the dealer frown)...gun, in this Casino. Why me? Why ALWAYS ME?" as he digs in his pocket to flop $500 more onto the table...

You just smile, and stack your chips.

....


Just to let you guys know...

Had we flat called, New guy would have bet pot on the river, putting us all in, but the Dentist would have folded. Of course he would not have been happy about it, but he would have.

Had we raised medium here, New guy and Dentist both flat us, but again, we lose Dentist on the river when New Guy bets pot. He may have been a bit upset about the suck out, and the cost to him, but he still would have folded.

The only way we extract maximum value here is to move in immediately on the turn, while both New Guy AND Dentist still have "hope".

Do we have any parting thoughts about our decision process now that we know what MIGHT have happened?

I will be putting up another small "interim decision" for us, and like the others we faced between the hands this one will have some bearing on our long term profitability.

The idea of this exercise folks, is to simulate as closely as possible the types of decisions you will face in live cash games situations. I hope you are all finding some benefit in this exercise, because I know I have really enjoyed the discussions so far...

Thoughts?

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sat Feb 18, 2012 at 11:24 PM..
 
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Sat Feb 18, 2012, 11:03 PM
(#19)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
This exercise is really showing me what a nit I am, I voted for the small raise, waiting for someone else to do the betting for me.

I love the discussions that happen and how the responses are so detailed. I rarely think in this much detail at the table, I tend to act too quickly before I consider all the possibilities. I'm sure these exercises will help me be a better player, and I really enjoy them.

 
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Sat Feb 18, 2012, 11:40 PM
(#20)
EmotiveKiwi's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 140
I think that this is as beneficial to members as the live training and training videos are. Really gets you thinking about everything in the hand. For me I know that I have a lot to learn but this sort of stuff really helps to get people involved and lets everyone see how much is involved in a hand of poker.

Great idea and I thank you very much for posting these for us.

I also think that it would be awesome to expand this into the MTT forums and look at things from a tournament standpoint where blinds come in to play more. I'm sure many people would love to see this sort of thing there also.

Great stuff, cheers

Last edited by EmotiveKiwi; Sat Feb 18, 2012 at 11:42 PM..
 

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