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Fold on the flop or to see the turn is good enough?

Fold on the flop or to see the turn is good enough? - Sat Feb 18, 2012, 05:53 AM
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
When would you fold?

Reads: Opponent is a rock for me with stats of 16/11. So I am smelling JJ to AA. Though the board is becoming somewhat nicer. So I should have folded on the flop or turn and the board even if nicer it is paired.

Thanks for the answer
Sat Feb 18, 2012, 06:16 AM
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
16/11 stats sounds pretty normal for a full-ring table imo. I don't really see someone as a rock at a full table until their VPIP drops below 10. But maybe that's just me.

Anyway, reads on the villain's postflop aggression would help me. I'd like to know whether this guy would ever double- or triple-barrel on a bluff. If he's aggressive, then I'd consider calling down unless a really bad card were to peel off (like an ace). If he's on the nittier side, then I'd call one street and fold to future action. If I thought he was somewhere in the middle, or if I didn't have a read on his postflop aggression, I'd tend to fold the flop, because I wouldn't know how to interpret a turn barrel. Readlessly calling the flop is pretty much like putting a blindfold on and trying to walk through a forest imo.
Sat Feb 18, 2012, 10:38 AM
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
Hi Etipac.

I agree with PanickyPoker in saying that 16/11 at a 9 max table (albeit one with 8 players) is not a "rock". That is a pretty standard TAG type profile. Still, if you credit him with only raise near the top end of his range UTG, this depth of money, and your hand can see you in a profitable set mining situation; if you set a set of 9s, there is a good chance the villain will have enough value in his hand to pay you off.

You do not hit the set on the flop though, and the villain C-bets...

With only 2 outs to hit now, and with only running cards to make a straight, the time to dump is probably on this flop. If we range his 16% VPiP down to about 5% raise to open raise in EP (a reasonable assumption), most of his range has you beat on this flop. This means calling is not really an option with so little chance to improve. You cannot reasonably raise to 'test" whether he has AQ/AK here either, as versus a tight player this will likely result in folds, or an even higher cost to you.

That only leaves folding on this flop as the sensible choice.

Even if you risk peeling in the hope he is on AQ/AK (the only hands behind you in a 5% raise range now are AQs/AKo/AKs/KQs) you lack the odds to keep going to draw at the bottom end of an OESD, since hitting that may only result in you making a second best hand.

So the time to fold was on the flop, but if you pass that up, you really should fold when he fires his 2nd bullet and makes it pretty clear he has no intent to fold.

Hope it helps.


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sat Feb 18, 2012 at 11:09 AM..

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