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How easy is this to fold? $15 180-Man

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How easy is this to fold? $15 180-Man - Mon Feb 20, 2012, 04:04 AM
(#1)
femson2000's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 70
Transferred. And first hand on this table. Analysis please.

Knew on the flop we both are drawing... Flop, I lead out to check where I am, if he hit the Q set... turn, I placed him as the one checking if I have something... when I called, he prolly placed me on Q... river he shoved, I think for a short moment, placed him on AK or AJ or better KK or AA... but didn't cross my mind he's got AT... but fullhouse a possibility... but shoving it is a good play he did to make it look like a steal, I called, telling my self, fullhouse he deserve my chips... I can't fold easily my nutflush..

How easy is this for you to fold?? Scale of 1 to 10 -- 10 being the hardest...

 
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 04:26 AM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I'd say it's a 2. Maybe a bigger number postflop, but I don't think it needs to get that far.

PREFLOP

This should be an open fold preflop. I can understand overlimping to try and sneak a nut flush for a cheap price, but even that's a questionable limp, since you'll very rarely flop the flush, so you're almost guaranteed to either find yourself with marginal hands postflop (e.g. a pair of aces), or you'll have to put in more money without a hand because you're on a draw (like in this hand).

Calling the raise actually puts you in a worse spot because the villain is on a strong range because he raised. He should have something like A8+ and high pocket pairs at the very least, and that range crushes you. Literally every hand that should be in his range is dominating you because he raised, so that means you should fold. You'd also be out of position for the rest of the hand, which argues for a fold. The preflop raise is also quite big, which is one more reason you should fold.

FLOP

Postflop, the situation is sticky because you do have a draw, but you don't have initiative or position (a major reason you should try to never play drawing hands OOP). Betting out isn't bad at all, because it does give your opponent a tricky spot of his own if all he has is ace-high, so he can actually fold here. If you check, you lose control of the pot and would probably need to fold to any bet, so I like your lead-out.

TURN

On the turn, yeah he bets small, but you still have nothing and your draws won't get there very often anymore. Remember that even if he's bluffing, he's probably doing it with a better hand than yours because of the range we put him on preflop. Here's a folding spot again.

Basically, your preflop decision to call a raise OOP with a weak drawing hand set you up to have a very hard time postflop. If you stick to an open raising range of something like AJ+ and 88+ from that seat, you should have a much easier time playing postflop. Hope that helps.


Last edited by PanickyPoker; Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 04:32 AM..
 
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 04:56 AM
(#3)
femson2000's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 70
Ty... I agree... his stack size... should have been a deterrent too...

Oh well, lesson learned... expensive... $15
 
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 06:16 AM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Hi femson,

On the river it all comes down to this:

What would you do with ace high here?

There's a concept called hand equivalency. In this spot the guy is either bluffing or has the nuts (I'd say tens full or better). Your hand can only beat a bluff. He's not overbet jamming a worse flush or an overpair or a Q, so your flush and ace high perform the same against his range. I'd fold ace high here, so I'd fold the nut flush as well. What bluffs can he possibly have? I can't really think of any, especially since you have the ace of diamonds (maybe pocket twos?) . Due to this I think it's actually a very easy fold on the river. Probably a 2.


4 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by oriholic; Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:53 AM..
 
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 11:24 AM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi femson2000!

I agree with the others that it's a pretty easy fold on the river. Yes, it's the nut flush, but with two pair on the board, I'd really be turning it into a bluff... which I don't want to do on this size of a stack against an opp that can KO me.

There are two things that I noticed throughout the hand that I'd have done differently.

Preflop: I try not to open limp. I'll limp behind, but if I'm going to play a hand, I'm going to open raise, so my choice preflop would be either to make a std raise or to fold. Early in a tourney I could easily play a suited ace here, but I'd raise.

Turn: The opp bets 550 when checked to. If the opp has either a Q or a 10, then I'd need to hit my outs in order to win the hand. To call, it's 550 into a pot that will be 2425 (22.7%). I've got 9 outs for the flush, which is only 18% hand equity. If I think that an ace hitting the river would win the hand (which may or may not be the case), then I'd have an additional 3 outs, making my hand equity 24%. If I discount the ace outs (AQ or A10 are well within the opp's range), then the hand equity is lower than what the pot equity to call is...... therefore, I'm going to muck here.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 01:26 PM
(#6)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Hey Femson this is the problem we get ourselves into by limping at level 3 in late position. Why not raise pre if you want to play? You wanna see a cheap flop and I hear so many people saying oh yes small ball this and small ball that but you got a flop that make you pull your hair out and you have no clue where you stand. At least a pre flop raise tells you something ( although not much ) when he reacts to your raise. We get different info if he folds, flats or raises and we have to have a plan of what are we doing on each street if we play here?
There is another very good saying that you might be wise to learn. "never go broke on an unraised pot"
There is another thing to consider here and that is that we are at level 3 only and you have 4 times your starting stack and you limp in late position. I don't need to be at your table long to figure your range with that move. 22 - 66 , A rag, KQ, KJ sooooted connectors hoping to hit hard.

This is and easy fold btw on the river in answer to your question.

In summary fold pre and if you wish to play raise pre.

Giddy Up!
 
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 02:23 PM
(#7)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
I would also like to make some comments on the rest of the hand.

Preflop, open limping... Generally this is not good. At some really aggressive tables you can consider limping so that you don't get 3-bet off your hand, but I'd prefer raising most of the time. Every once in a while I will limp a hand for confusion. That said if I limp I'm not folding to a standardish raise ever. The point of limping is to not get 3-bet off my hand. Okay, so we limp-call with , which is okay. Not great, but with your 125 BB stack I don't mind opening up your range to whatever you're comfortable with. I'd prefer a raise, as you have the initiative and can c-bet a lot of boards, as well as semibluffing with the nut flush draw, etc. With a very deep stack you have a lot of options open to you. BUT you have to know how to use them. And you have to understand postflop play very well.

On the flop, you donk into a paired, dry board with the nut flush draw. I don't like this play at all. First off you're not betting to see where anyone's at. That is not a reason to bet. You're leading as a semibluff because why? Because you expect him to fold better? Call worse? Raise often? I'd check here pretty much 100% of the time. This is one of the most obvious boards that the preflop raiser is expected to c-bet. Now, whether you prefer to check/call or check/raise is a different question. I would probably check/raise. Here's why: He's expected to bet this flop with almost all of his range, and most of his range has missed! He has almost no 3s in his range and even 77-JJ don't really like getting check/raised. He also has a lot of ace high hands that missed that will probably bet/fold. Plus you actually have a TON of equity against his range. You're in really bad shape against AA and dead against QQ, but against the rest of his range you are not in terrible shape. It makes more sense to donk on a board like 8TQ with two of a suit, since he may just check a wet flop like that back and you miss a bet.

On the turn, I think you need to check/raise. He is offering a really good price on a call, but it's a pretty weak bet and you probably have a bunch of outs if he does call and you will have the initiative. And maybe you can win on some rivers that miss you both like an offsuit K or J. You probably have 8 flush outs, 3 ace outs, and I think a K or J is a decent bluff out. Anyhow, with your likely 11 outs you have about 22% equity. Also consider the possibility of him holding a weaker flush draw. Anyhow, you need to get just over 3.5 to 1 on a call. When you call 550 into 1875, you're getting about 3.4 to 1 on a call which is pretty close. With money behind in your stacks you are easily getting the right price. You need to win a pot that's 3.55 times the size of the bet you need to call. 3.55 x 550=1952. This means that if you can squeeze an extra 77 chips out of him on the river you're getting a good price. And again, you can be ahead already! That's why this is not a fold. 77 chips is just 1.5 BBs. Unless he has pure air you should be able to get at least 500 chips on a good river. I think check/raising is better than check/calling, but you are definitely getting a good price. And he can always have something like .

On the river I think you have to lead out here. For something like 1000. You can get called by a Q, AA, KK, JJ, 99, 88 whatever pairs are in his range, as well as possible weaker flushes and even ace high. They might call a river bet. Bet and if you get raised you fold. He simply doesn't have enough (any?) bluffs in his range and no weaker value hand is raising a river bet. As played, when he jams river you have an easy fold due to hand equivalency. In a spot where he has 10s full or better or nothing, your hand is basically the same as ace high. His bluff frequency here is not close to high enough to make the call. I think he's bluffing close to zero percent of the time, but he needs to be bluffing more than 40% to be worth calling. Not a chance. Easy fold.


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