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Sure Value bet?

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Sure Value bet? - Mon Feb 20, 2012, 05:05 AM
(#1)
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
I have been on this table for about 30 hands and I noticed that they call all raises like crazy so I raise my AK and adjust it to 4x bb instead to 3x.. Follow up with a CBET so to represent a very strong hand and only the button calls which on my stats she is a TAG 15/11. Turn I check as now I have nothing and my A high might be still good and she checks behind me. On the river the K comes to give me 2pair with the best possible kicker I check but she bets half the pot... For me it smelled J all the way or a pair of 3s or 7s and I fold... Would you call here? As I think no one as a good TAG would bluff here. For me it is a value bet? For me my hand is not worth this much on the board. So would this be a good fold guys?



Etienne
 
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 05:22 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi Etienne.

This is certainly an interesting spot, and one a lot of people may let hitting top/top on the river "force" them into a crying call.

I have to be honest, I think you ARE beat here Etienne.

I say this because I'd think AA/KK would be apt to raise from the button with a profile as aggressive as this one (73% of the voluntary pot entries are raised); these hands would tend to play better in a smaller field and are plenty strong to 3bet pre.

JJ may well flat your raise pre flop, and play that pp as a set mining hand in a multi-way pot, although someone this aggro may tend to 3bet this pp to narrow the field too.

I do not really see a TAG calling pre flop here on AJ very often to be honest, although this one may do so if it were suited and the intent was to play for draw value. If you are raising pretty wide, AJ would tend to make a bit more sense though.

I can, however, see a TAG flatting the pre flop raise with a hand that tends to do well in multi way pots: JT/QJ fit the bill nicely, especially if suited. These hands tend to make very strong draws, and those play well in the depth of money that is being set up here; great position helps the playability of those draws a ton too. 77, assuming it hits a set, also is a cheap "fit or fold" hand that could net a big pot with a flat.

The BTN can easily have AK here to be honest, especially given that your large C-Bet probably does not mean you have a J yourself; I would probably be prone to peeling AK here if I think you do not have a J.

Is this TAG really turning QQ/TT/99/88 into a bluff here by betting the river K? I'd think either of those would have bet the turn behind your check, if they were going to bet at all. It is pretty sure a TAG this aggro would have stabbed with any of these if they felt your large C-bet was not a J.

About the only hand I can see that you beat is KQ, and that would be a pretty marginal hand with which to call along pre flop on the button for a TAG player. Also, KQ is going to have a really hard time justifying a call of your rather large C-Bet on this dry board.

So boil it all down and you are probably chopping the pot if you call at best...

You would need to be "right" to call $2.30 for a chance to win $6.16 about 37% of the time, and to be honest I do not see it here. I think this was a good solid fold, especially given that your opponent "faded" a big C-Bet and then pretty suspiciously CHECKED behind you on the turn. that sniffs strongly of a "monster" flop to me, just DYING to let you "catch up" to a 2nd best hand.

Good Read Etienne in not letitng yourself get "married" to top pair top kicker when you had every reaosn to believe that just was not good enough to win!

Well played.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:05 AM..
 
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 05:41 AM
(#3)
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
What made me fold are these...

1) Her stats make her from history with her a good player.
2) No good TAG would actually bet there as a bluff as in my range I have of course Ak, AA and KK, so if she had KQ or K10 she is checking back there to as she has showdown value.
3) With 3callers the possibility of someone having 33, 77, a J or even KJ are more often.
4) The check back on the turn might be a trap so if the river is a K or an A she can value bet and be called more easily..

Etienne
 
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 06:08 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by etipac View Post
What made me fold are these...

1) Her stats make her from history with her a good player.
2) No good TAG would actually bet there as a bluff as in my range I have of course Ak, AA and KK, so if she had KQ or K10 she is checking back there to as she has showdown value.
3) With 3callers the possibility of someone having 33, 77, a J or even KJ are more often.
4) The check back on the turn might be a trap so if the river is a K or an A she can value bet and be called more easily..

Etienne
I agree 100%, although I think you would fold out 33 a good bit of the time BEFORE the turn; that hand isn't likely to peel the turn to hit 2 outs when you have a lot of pp in your range.

Good fold.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 09:37 AM
(#5)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
Some of the time in these situations I like to put out a smallish blocking bet with toptop here. How often is dependent on how your opponent is likely to perceive this action.
 
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 11:07 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Hi Etienne,

Well I see this hand differently. Personally I don't like the continuation bet. Firing a c-bet with air into 3+ players is generally just burning money. You should not be c-betting 100% of the time as the preflop raiser or you will be hugely exploitable... if you need to find some spots to not c-bet, 4 handed+ pots where you've missed are a good spot to start.

Turn check I like, on the river I am never check-folding top/top the way this hand has played out, here are my thoughts on your reasons:

1) Her stats make her from history with her a good player.

What's her win rate, over what sample size? This player is actually not a winning player. Don't mistake TAG stats for winning... not all TAGs are winning players, and not all LAGs are losing players. These are style designations, but not everyone plays those styles the same nor do they all play it well.

2) No good TAG would actually bet there as a bluff as in my range I have of course Ak, AA and KK, so if she had KQ or K10 she is checking back there to as she has showdown value.

When you check the river, AA and AK become much less likely to be in your range. KK shouldn't be at all. Checking twice here invites a bluff, and it invites pocket pairs to take a shot for value. If I were in her shoes, I would often value bet you with KT-KQ after you checked to me twice, looking for thinnish value vs. hands like TT or maybe a loose bluff catching call by AQ high.

3) With 3callers the possibility of someone having 33, 77, a J or even KJ are more often.

Yes, it's possible, although it's more possible combinatorically for her to have any other pocket pair (and if you think she will call the flop bet with 33, then all the other pocket pairs must be in her range too).

4) The check back on the turn might be a trap so if the river is a K or an A she can value bet and be called more easily..

Maybe. It's not the only possibility for her checking back the turn though. Taking a free card with a worse ace high (that now might bluff after being check to twice) or King high (that is now value betting you), or pot controlling with a pocket pair (which should probably check down as betting a hand like 99 is too thin imo, but once we know this is not a winning player this becomes much more possible).

On balance, if I think this player is a candidate to bluff sometimes after being checked to twice, I will check and call. If they are not likely to bluff but are more prone to bluff catching with hands like 99, then I would bet/fold (the fold part because I think this player only raises us with trip J's+ on the river).

Dave


Head Live Trainer
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 05:59 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi again All.

I really think I was a bit rash in quoting Etienne and saying "I agree 100%". I DO agree with his ranging but I do not really agree with 2 of his 4 statements.

1) Dave's right, the STATS do not say this player is good. Your observations at the TABLE may say this player is good, but without have access to this person's HUD to see all their games, you do not know that her STATS say so.

2) A GOOD TAG is EXACTLY the sort of player who is most likely to suss out your weakness and fire a bluff bet. I may be wrong in doing this, but I really do not give micro stakes players a ton of credit to fire a bluff bet this well sized though.

This bet is PERFECT if it is QQ - 88 (except JJ which is a monster) as it so strongly rep's a big hand played to allow you to catch up. Do a ton of micro player's really have that sort of bluffing skills to recognize that Etienne may well muck a big hand like AA/QQ/AK in this spot to a bet that is somewhat small like this one?

I do, however, agree with Etienne's ranging thoughts in a micro game 100% (except I'd not really credit 33 as much as he does).

As for my "disagreement" with Dave, these seem to really be a PERCEPTUAL thing...

He perceives that the TAG Villain here may be bluffier than I see them to be.

As such, as strange as it may seem, I really think both our "read" Etienne's AND Dave's read are "correct". The more pocket pair type hands this villain might turn into a river bluff, the more we should be calling.

I just don't see someone who is 15/11 TAG aggro as someone who would let a a chance to rep a J go past if you bet large enough to make it seem "strange" YOU have a J on continuation, then check the turn.

I think Dave is viewing this as a sort of "last ditch hope" sort of bet that you will fold thinking this person may have a J.

It is simply a different view really.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 

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