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A6o UTG 6-handed flopped middle pair. Facing river bet.

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A6o UTG 6-handed flopped middle pair. Facing river bet. - Mon Feb 20, 2012, 04:49 PM
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oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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I open A6o UTG which is a little loose but I'm opening a super wide range anyway. Opponent is willing to splash around, and will play any hand with a 9 in it because he thinks they're lucky. I open because opening UTG I'm fairly unlikely to get 3-bet light and I can get called by plenty of slightly worse hands and hands that will have a tough time continuing postflop unless they hit, like small pairs and connectors. This is a marginally -EV open, but one effect is that it should get my better hands paid off more often.

Table 'Dollhouse ($0.40 Min)' 6-Max, Seat #8 is the button
Seat 6: oriholic (12.88 in chips)
Seat 7: Skruit (1.79 in chips)
Seat 4: chiisuu (2.37 in chips) - Big Blind
Seat 8: chkmate (4.17 in chips) - The button
Seat 9: CallEmNutz (2.25 in chips) - Small Blind
Seat 5: sLeEpYzZ (2.00 in chips)
CallEmNutz: posts small blind 0.01
chiisuu: posts big blind 0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to oriholic
oriholic: raises 0.06 to 0.06
Skruit: folds
chkmate: folds
CallEmNutz: calls 0.05
chiisuu: folds
*** FLOP ***
CallEmNutz: checks
oriholic: bets 0.07
CallEmNutz: calls 0.07

Pretty standard c-bet. Low board. I have a pair. I actually get called by worse (draws, weaker 6s, and 3s), and I do get some protection against hands like JT which have good equity. When called I think his range largely consists of flush draws and open-enders like, 97, 75, 54. Also weaker 6s, 3x, 44, 55, 77, and maybe a float with overcards and backdoors or gutshots like T9, JT, T7.

*** TURN ***
CallEmNutz: checks
oriholic: checks

I check back here for some pot control. That 3 is very unlikely to change anything and I most likely have the best hand. I could bet here, but by checking back I look like I'm giving up and I might pick up a river bluff.

*** RIVER ***
CallEmNutz: bets 0.19
oriholic: ????


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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 06:29 PM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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The villains line/river bet is a bit polarizing. Bluff or strong value bet. Unless you've pegged villain as aggressive or a 'bluffer' that has made bluffs of similar sizes(in relation to the pot size), I would lean towards villain holding a strong hand.
 
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Mon Feb 20, 2012, 06:31 PM
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JDean's Avatar
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Posts: 3,145
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Hi Oriholic.

I think your image here leaves you with a lot of options others do not have.

As I see it, for your stack size a "loss" here is far from crippling, and it probably maintains the image that you are a wild player who is prone to pay off "floats" lightly. This will tend to encourage more of those flats of your C-bets when you have MORE value in your hand, and allows you to set up oop turn or river C/Rs over opp's who will continue to believe that ANY check by you = weakness they can exploit.

With that said, "wasting" 19c simply for "image", especially when there is no real surety on line that an opp will stay at the table to allow you to get a pay off for that "image" call, can be pretty spew-y. In this spot, facing a call of 19c to possibly win 37c, you have to be "right" about 34% of the time to break even on a call.

Given your ranging info, it looks like about the only hands you are beating are busted flush draws and very small pp (and weaker 6s), and those could easily comprise 33% of the villain's range.

I'd think I'd be looking at how well my "sheriff" attempts have worked at this table, and especially versus this opponent, to really form my decision about whether this is a call.

- If I have made a call or 2 and been "right" that the villain is bluffing, then I probably feel I have enough reason to call again.

- If I've been snapped off a couple times by this villain before, I think there is reason enough to muck.

The width of your range, your image, and the width of the range that the villain might play against you is simply so WIDE that is is pretty hard to decide if you will be "right" the 34% of times needed to break even.

The tilter for me is the image benefits you probably CAN derive though, so I think I lean slightly toward a call here...

Hope it helps.

-JDean


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Tue Feb 21, 2012, 03:22 AM
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oriholic's Avatar
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Isn't there another option?


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Tue Feb 21, 2012, 10:28 AM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Isn't there another option?
You mean raise? I don't see any benefit to that. It would have to be a really strong raise to get medium strength hands to fold, and problem is he has polarized his range some so less likely he even has a medium strength hand. The weak hands fold to your raise so you gain nothing over a call, and the strong hands will reraise you.
 
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Tue Feb 21, 2012, 11:34 AM
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JDean's Avatar
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Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Isn't there another option?
Hi again Ori.

Nope, I do not really think so.

By leading the river, your opponent is probably either betting for value or bluffing.

A river raise does not work well as a bluff for your image: If he is betting for value, you have very little credibility to bluff that you hold a 3, and the fact you failed to continue your aggression on the turn means even an 8 may suspect a river raise to be a bluff.

If he is bluffing, a river raise nets you nothing.

It is possible an opp would try a river bluff at you because of your image, and you can BEAT those, so your A6 probably has some showdown value sometimes here, but very little besides that.

-JDean


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