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Tough Decision

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Tough Decision - Tue Feb 21, 2012, 01:33 AM
(#1)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
Here's a hand from the Women's Sunday tournament, every one was playing pretty tight. I intended calling, until the big stack ahead of me went all in. At that point, there were 47 peeps left, and 45 got paid. What is the best play??



 
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Tue Feb 21, 2012, 03:17 AM
(#2)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
I was thinking easy fold until I saw the stack size. After a little thought, I'm still going to muck it. I'm thinking about what the big stack could have, and I come up with things I don't like. The best case scenario here would be a pair lower than your 10. I think it's more likely though she'll show something AJ+ or JJ+ in which case you're far behind.

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Tue Feb 21, 2012, 07:10 AM
(#3)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Hi! Joy,

Since we are so close to the money bubble I think its a fold all day long. If the big stack opp in SB folds than obviously we can call easily as we are getting good odds and the calling in that spot is not going to risk our tournament life.

But when the big stack shoves we could easily be crushed/dominated most of the time and the best case scenario could be a coin flip which is not worth the risk at this point when we are so close to the money. Additionally one of them could have our outs which would make it difficult for hand to improve post-flop. So IMO folding is the right play under those circumstances.

Hope you made the money and good luck.

Cheers.
 
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Tue Feb 21, 2012, 11:56 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,857
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi Joy!

With only 2 until the bubble bursts, here's the way I'd go about this hand.
The small stack needs to be shoving within the next 2 hands, so their range should be much wider than normal, especially if noone else would blind out before them.
However, if there are others that would blind out before they do (which is why I always try to have the tourney lobby open near the bubble, as I watch for things like this), then the opp is most likely going to have a real hand here. Even a double up won't give them a very playable stack, so they'll be concerned about getting ITM.
Looking for this type of information can really help around the bubble, as it can be a tell as to whether the opp is shoving light, or has a better hand.

The decision here is actually going to be made for me by the SB. If they fold, then with A 10 I'll call the short stack's shove.... BUT... since the SB shoves, I'm going to muck here.
When I put ranges of top 30% for the open-shover (could actually be wider) and top 15% for the SB (could actually be wider or tighter, depending on how this opp's playing), A 10 is not the favorite to win the hand and only has 31% equity.
With winning less than 1 in 3 and not being the favorite in the hand, I'm mucking here, making it past the bubble, then shoving the first playable hand after the bubble bursts.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Tue Feb 21, 2012, 08:50 PM
(#5)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
Thanks for all the detailed analysis - I thought about it for a while, I had fully intended to call the short stack and was totally thrown when the big stack shoved. I decided to fold and wait for a better spot, the bubble had a lot to do with my decision.

I don't regret my decision and would do the same again in this situation, but I was quite surprised by my opponents hands, especially the big stack.



I made it to 17th for $131.00.


Last edited by joy7108; Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 08:50 PM.. Reason: typo
 

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