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Correct call or just foolish?

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Correct call or just foolish? - Tue Feb 21, 2012, 08:25 AM
(#1)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450


$0.50 45-man turbo, approx 18-20 players left. No specific reads on the villain, except that he has shoved in good spots but has yet to be called. His stats are 24/22 over 49 hands.

I opted to call here because he's most likely shoving with all pocket pairs and any aces, and the pot odds were favorable against that range. Was I correct to call or should I have folded?

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Tue Feb 21, 2012, 11:39 AM
(#2)
Damen1's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 29
We are getting 2 to 1 on our money so we need approximately 33% equity to get even in the long run so this makes almost an any two call. 2/3 rd of the time you lose 1500 more and a third ott you win ~4500 which brings us to even.

KTs isnt optimal but we're getting good enough pot odds. We're only in horrible shape against AA or KK. His 3 bet shoving range here gives us about a 35% odd if we give him ~10% 3 bet % shove which is kinda tight to be honest in this situation. We're basically giving him AA-55 ,AT+,A5s+.

We also have him covered so yeah we dont high five the monitor but i think its a call. Id like to hear some other opinions on this. Hope this helps!
 
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Tue Feb 21, 2012, 01:10 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi Feskprins!

To call the button's shove, it will take an additional 1430 chips into a pot that will be 4360 (32.8%).
With under 10BB left, the opp's shove range should be much wider than normal. When I put the numbers into stove, to make this a breakeven play for K10s, the opp has to be playing a range of AQ+ and 99+ (top 5.1%).

Since the opp's shove range, especially from the button with a small stack, should be much wider than this, it IS a +EV play to call.

Unfortunately the opp had a hand at the top end of their range, but I like the call here and would make the same play. Against the opp's range, it will be a +EV play in the long run. Even losing the hand, I'm still in the tourney with 10BB left and would now be looking for a hand to shove.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Feb 21, 2012, 01:21 PM
(#4)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
I wasn't really sure if it was +EV from a "tournament perspective" even though it's +EV in terms of absolute amounts of chips. This is a pretty standard situation so your answers made it clear for me once and for all. Thanks!

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Last edited by Feskprins; Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 01:23 PM..
 

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