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10NL Set of 4's tough decision on river

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10NL Set of 4's tough decision on river - Tue Feb 21, 2012, 08:41 PM
(#1)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Hi! guys,



No reads on the opp as he had been on the table for only couple of hands. Did I play the hand too passively post-flop and is it easy fold on the river given we don't have any reads?




Again no solid reads on the opp as he had been involved in only two hands since I came to the table. Is it easy fold on the river or can there be a case made for a call?

Cheers.
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 08:06 AM
(#2)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
first hand... yuck on that river ez fold imo, but gettin' counterfeit like that is never fun.
second hand i'd actually raise that river bet. with as passively as the hand gets played he could easily call with as little as a pair, and for sure you get called by 2 pair type hands.i really doubt, with that size river bet he's on the flush,cause you would expect a much smaller bet that he would want called if he was.

Last edited by mtnestegg; Wed Feb 22, 2012 at 08:10 AM..
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 10:27 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi deadeyz,

Please only post 1 hand per thread for hand analysis.

In your first hand I definitely think it's underplayed. We can raise the flop for value, and raising the turn is essential... the villain has trip tens so often here and we will likely get stacks in as a solid favorite (84% with 1 card to come vs. Tx). River is an easy fold for the same reason. We got a lucky result (our failure to raise the turn saving us money on a disaster river card) but we're leaving way too much value on the table over time.

Second hand, I would never fold on the river as our hand strength is way under-repped. That said I don't like raising either. The villain is overbetting the pot which looks like a strong value line. If we raise on this board the way the hand has played out our holding looks like a flush basically, we will only get called by hands that beat us (flushes and trip aces making a crying call) and likely not get value from worse unless the opponent is very fishy (but we have no reads).

Dave


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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 10:51 AM
(#4)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
does that bet really look like value to you? it seems to me to be a push more than value. but i can def see why not to raise now that you mention it.it was QUITE large,but how often do you think that size bet IS value but is over value the way this hand played out? but for sure a call,
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 10:57 AM
(#5)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi deadeyz,

Please only post 1 hand per thread for hand analysis.

In your first hand I definitely think it's underplayed. We can raise the flop for value, and raising the turn is essential... the villain has trip tens so often here and we will likely get stacks in as a solid favorite (84% with 1 card to come vs. Tx). River is an easy fold for the same reason. We got a lucky result (our failure to raise the turn saving us money on a disaster river card) but we're leaving way too much value on the table over time.

Dave
Hi! Dave,

First of all thanks for your comments guys and apologies for posting 2 hands in a single thread, I will keep in mind that only 1 hand per thread.

Normally I would play my sets aggressively and if the opp has a better set / big draw then be it. But for some reason in this particular hand I decided to be cautious, maybe because I have been running really bad lately (as you can see from this hand).

Thanks for your comments Dave, really appreciate it.

Cheers.
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 12:12 PM
(#6)
ketchup143's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 279
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
does that bet really look like value to you? it seems to me to be a push more than value. but i can def see why not to raise now that you mention it.it was QUITE large,but how often do you think that size bet IS value but is over value the way this hand played out? but for sure a call,
it seems to me that the opp either has a better hand or has air. raising won't accomplish anything
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 12:45 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
does that bet really look like value to you?
Large river bets are very commonly value bets, yes... commonly enough that until you see someone do this as a bluff it's a good policy to assume it's a value bet.

In the case of overbetting the pot it makes no sense as a bluff, they can bluff just as effectively for less. Now bad players do things that make no sense all the time, but in the absence of reads I'm assuming it's a bet for value.


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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 01:06 PM
(#8)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by ketchup143 View Post
it seems to me that the opp either has a better hand or has air. raising won't accomplish anything
i'll go along with that, w/o reads
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Large river bets are very commonly value bets, yes... commonly enough that until you see someone do this as a bluff it's a good policy to assume it's a value bet.

In the case of overbetting the pot it makes no sense as a bluff, they can bluff just as effectively for less. Now bad players do things that make no sense all the time, but in the absence of reads I'm assuming it's a bet for value.
works for me. i just seem to assume with the passivity that this was played by the opp. and the big over bet that he was weak sauce (as you say)
 

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