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On the bubble

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On the bubble - Wed Feb 22, 2012, 06:20 AM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
On the bubble of a 27man SnG. I know I had the best hand here, but is this a call you should make? Part of me says yes, especially seeing the hand he had, and considering the need to chip up to get to a top 3 finish.
Part of me says no, since most likely you'll be racing or in bad shape.




Too bad. I doubled up twice, after this, got no action against my pocket aces, and then was allin wuith AQ vs. KJ and he hit a runner runner flush and I still bubbled out. Gawd.....
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 08:16 AM
(#2)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
I'm definitely calling here. They will rarely show up with a higher pair and flipping with our stack in this situation is absolutely fine. We want to go for those top 3 spots and we can't just sit there and hope for aces three times in a row. ....
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 03:01 PM
(#3)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Oversight,

In general I think we've put ourselves in a difficult spot here. We should have a plan here before we bet out. If we were planning to fold to the big stacks (or the short one) I would prefer rasing 500rather than 600, to make the fold decision eaiser. If we aren't folding we should probably just be shoving.

I think not on the bubble. I think this is an easier call if you range the opponent weaker. Since we are on the bubble it is an ICM decision for us.

I've put it though my equity calculator. (Sorry for the maths)

Before the hand we have $4.36 in prize equity with our current stack.
If we fold we have $3.86 in prize equity (giving the 50c in equity to the short stack)
If we call and win our prize equity will be $6.78 if we lose it will be 89c

So the question whether to call or not becomes a ranging exercise to see how often we win and how often we lose. Given the risk reward here we need 49% equity to make calling a better average outcome than folding. I think this is pretty close. I think he'd do this with lots of smaller pairs, and if you're read is your ahead then this is a call.


Incidently if we had raised 500 preflop rather than 600 we would need 51% equity to make the call, which makes folding a slightly more attractive option.

Let me know if this doesn't make sense at all

Thanks
Andrew




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Last edited by ahar010; Wed Feb 22, 2012 at 03:16 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 03:23 PM
(#4)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Sorry one more point. (I like my maths )

If it was the big stack shoving over us. We stand to lose all our prize equity when we lose, so we would need 62% equity to make the call.

ICM is definately saying fold here. Given that I think either a smaller raise of 500 or a shove are probably better options than the 3x raise.

Good Luck
Andy




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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 03:38 PM
(#5)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
I understand the basic idea on ICM, not the details. Or how you are able to do the math within the allotted time for making a decision. I assume there's some tool or so so all you have to do is input some cards and stacks and bet sizes?
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 03:46 PM
(#6)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Tools that calculate stuff for you in-game are not allowed. So understanding ICM just takes a whole lot of reading and quizzing yourself with SNG Wiz, or some other method that helps you learn.

This could be a snap call if the guy is shoving wide enough. For example, if the villain is shoving ATC, then you're over 70% to win. Again, reads would be very, very useful. It's impossible to know you have the best hand unless you can see your opponents' cards, but if there's something that gives you that impression, tell us what it is (he habitually 3bets the CO from the BU, his 3bet% on the bubble is huge, he runs 70/40, he told you what his hand was in chat, etc.).
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 04:00 PM
(#7)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Yeah, it's not really possible to do ICM calculations on the fly. Since there is so many variables that change with every action. It is more of a post game analysis tool.

In the moment you can keep ICM considerations in mind. Here as a rough calc I would say if I win I double my prize equity if I lose I'm toast. And I would want an edge of around 55% to continue. Then it comes back to ranging the opponent.

The underlying tone of ICM on the game. Is anytime two players are allin in a pot. Their combined prize equity drops and the every else left in the game and not in the pot gains a little bit of prize equity. (The chance someone busts and they move up the ladder). So it becomes important to not be involved in the allin pots unless you have a big edge.

You will notice that calling or folding our prize equity has dropped from the equity we had before the hand began.




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