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10NL rivered Full House, but....

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10NL rivered Full House, but.... - Wed Feb 22, 2012, 01:33 PM
(#1)
ferdyr77's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 88
Hi,

Was interested if I could make the loss on this hand somehow lower.

Any thoughts about my actions?
After the hand I was thinking i should (in position) bet for some information but i think my opponent will probably just flat calls towards the river. At least I might drop out on the turn.



Thanks.
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 05:49 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi ferdyr77!

Welcome to the forums. I see you found the hand analysis forum, but be sure to check out the live training session too, as well as the excellent training videos; they are a great help to your overall game, even if you are already experienced (it never hears to hear things repeated)!

On to your analysis though...

In my opinion, I do think you over played your boat here.

First, pre flop I am fine with your flat of an EP raiser holding TT. The depth of here is good enough to play TT as a "no set/no bet" set mining hand against an EP raiser.

When he checks behind, your TT is not in a great spot to value bet, as you are really not going to fold out better hands a lot of the time. You also may not get called by AK here very often either, so all you would essentially be doing is turning a hand with marginal value into a bluff, and preventing the chance that the opponent might bluff later streets into you for an amount you could call.

To be honest, the concept of "betting for information" is not really a good one in NLHE; it is more of a concept for Fixed Limit HE. If you try doing this in NLHE, the info you may get is useless, because you will not really know for sure if a big check raise is a bluff or a value bet. you really should restrict your betting in HU pots to either value bets, or hands that have almost no chance of being best (bluffs) that you we bet in hopes of getting our opponent to fold. Any info you get from making one of these actions is a side benefit, and not the overall goal of your bet.

If TT is not strong enough to bet for value (meaning almost no worse hands will call), and if you cannot use it to bluff (no better hands will likely fold to a bet), then your only option is to check behind his check; betting "for info" may only cost you more money, and will almost certainly NOT win you more for that risk.

The turn leaves you in pretty much the same circumstance, and your best option is probably to check behind in hopes he MAY try a bluff stab on the river that you could (possibly) call.

On the river, when you make a boat, things have changed quite a bit; now you DO have enough value to bet over his check, as there ARE worse hands that might call.

But when the opponent leads the river, now you have to start thinking about what he may bet like this...

- if you think he will lead on NOTHING, then a bet does not get you a lot of value, but in case he mis-clicks you should still probably raise.

- if you think he will lead the river on MARGINAL VALUE (QQ/88/AK) simply because you've checked 2 streets, you should definately raise. The opp may think you are trying to bluff, and pay you off.

- if you think he would lead on JUST a J, then trying a value raise is fine if you think he may then raise again on just a J or call.

- if you think he will only raise you with a better boat a decent part of the time, but he MIGHT check raise a J, flat the raise.

- if he will ONLY re raise you with a better boat (meaning he is a super tight player), you can probably find a fold here...

(please note, it would take VERY SPECIFIC info on an opp to fold a boat here. There are just too many players who would over value a Jx hand here and try a C/R to not at least call)

But in this hand what you saw was a lead, then you raised it, and he 3bet it. THIS is certainly a point where you have to suspect a much STRONGER hand than just a J at least some of the time. You do not give us any info on the opponent in your lead in, but unless they guy was a very loose and very aggro player who will over value a lot of hands or bluff a ton, it is highly risky to 4bet all in on an under boat.

The most you you can do is call the 3bet, and doing that may have saved you a chunk, but against some very tight players, as hard as it might be to think about it, you might have been able to FOLD this boat to a 3bet and save even more. that is quite rare though...

Again, welcome to the forums! I hope to see you around more!

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Thu Feb 23, 2012 at 01:49 PM..
 
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Thu Feb 23, 2012, 09:27 AM
(#3)
ferdyr77's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 88
Hi JDean,

Thanks for the response. Sorry i forgot to mention player analysis. My opponent is indeed somewhat loose, can play lots of cards and i had him on a Jx slowplay. But indeed i tend to hold my "second best" strong hands.

I have seen the multiple training vids already and have to check out live training once.
Thanks again.

Ferdy
 
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Thu Feb 23, 2012, 12:15 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
Hi,

Flat preflop is fine imo. I also don't mind you checking back the flop and turn in this spot. On the river the villain pots it, and we raise. I think this is a good raise for value with our rivered full house... we will get called by hands as weak as AQ I'd think (sometimes weaker if we look bluffy to the villain) and certainly KQ or trip J's. When he 3b's to $6 it may be time to slow down. If the villain is a really bad player who would spazz with just trip J's we should consider getting the rest of the way in, but if not or if unknown, I think this bet/3B line looks super strong and it's better to just call at this point. Sometimes we will catch them overplaying trip J's or KQ, but often we'll be looking at JJ, AJ, or AA too, so yeah I think we are losing $6 on this river no matter what but don't need to lose our whole stack without reads.

Dave


Head Live Trainer
Check out my Videos

4 Time Bracelet Winner



 
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Thu Feb 23, 2012, 01:44 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ferdyr77 View Post
Hi JDean,

Thanks for the response. Sorry i forgot to mention player analysis. My opponent is indeed somewhat loose, can play lots of cards and i had him on a Jx slowplay. But indeed i tend to hold my "second best" strong hands.

I have seen the multiple training vids already and have to check out live training once.
Thanks again.

Ferdy
Hi again Ferdyr...

If he was somewhat loose, then you are destined to lose a good bit on Ts Full when you hit it.

The only thing you have to sweat is that (as TheLangolier set out) AA/AJ/JJ/J9 and RARELY JT (because you have blockers to him having the case T). I think your bet pattern was just fine, up until the shove all in by you. Given your read, a FLAT of his 3bet is probably better in my opinion, than trying to push all in for value.

That way if you ARE beat by a guy slow playing, you lose less.

(By the way, I am editing my post above. I missed the river action because I was a bit distracted when I wrote that. It really doesnt change the jist of the analysis tho).

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu Feb 23, 2012, 04:34 PM
(#6)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Hi ferdy!

Opponent raises UTG, and you flat the button with TT. Perfect. I think this is your only option here. Now, what do you know about UTG's open range? Obviously he's got some monsters like AK, JJ+, but how wide is he really? Can he have suited broadways, connectors, small to medium pocket pairs, Ax hands, etc.?

It is really important to have some idea of his range to open UTG.

For example say we have a really tight player. Total nit. If his range is only TT+, AQ+, then well, he can't have TT obviously. So assuming he checks two streets with his entire range, his maximum range to get to the river is JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ. QQ, KK, AK, and AQ aren't going crazy here because they have only one pair unless it's AKss or AQss maybe. That leaves JJ and AA, which have you crushed and AKss and AQss which you beat. There is 1 way to have JJ and 3 to have AA, and just 2 ways to have AQss, AKss. This means that you're ahead 1/3 of the time. If you repop he has no worse full houses and probably dumps his flushes. To his initial pot-size bet I think you can call as he could totally be stabbing or betting for value with AK/AQ/KK. I think he's likely to:

bet/fold: AK (11), AQ (11), KK* (6), QQ* (6)
bet/call: AKss (1), AQss (1)
bet/3-bet: AA (3), JJ(1)

I think his bet/call range is so small that our best option is actually to just call. Even if he is bet/jamming AKss/AQss that only adds 2 possible hands we beat. And this player type is probably not going to spazz out with AQss or AKss here. In fact they may even fall into his bet/fold range if he is super nitty.

*although he may actually just check QQ and KK and try to get to showdown. Check/call or check/fold them possibly.

This is the importance of ranging our opponent. We can construct a player and range that turns our 10s full into a medium value hand that really can't get value from much worse since he doesn't have a lot of strong second-best hands in his range. He doesn't have a lot of straights/flushes/trips, because his open range doesn't contain those hand combos to begin with.

If we widen his opening range we widen his range of hand combos he can possibly have. This will widen his bet/call range if nothing else to include all/most trips or better hands. QJ, KJ, (honestly he still doesn't have a lot of trips that aren't better boats), KQ, maybe some small flushes (let's say 76ss+) and 99 (though I guess we can add that to the bet/3-bet range). Also we add in more hands that beat us: JT, J9, AJ.

Now it looks more like:

bet/fold: AK (11), AQ (11), KK, (6), QQ (6),
bet/call: AKss (1), AQss (1), QJ(8), KJ (8), KQ (15), 76ss (1), 86ss (1)
bet/3-bet: AA (3), JJ (1), JT (2), J9 (6), AJ (6), KQss (1), 87ss (1), 99 (3)

Now I like the idea of raising for value since we can get value from a decent amount of hands, but folding to a 3-bet since we only beat 3/23 hand combos. Even if we add all his flushes into his 3-bet range, we still only beat 7/27.

The thing is the way the board has run out almost all Jx hands he can raise UTG are a boat, most flushes are blocked by the board. There's a couple possible Ax flushes and a couple tiny flushes, but are we really going to see K8ss? The only bigger Kxss flush is KQss which is a straight flush, 87ss is a straight flush, J9, JT, AJ are Js full, so we only have QJ and KJ for trips, unless we're against like J8hhcc, which is unlikely given the raiser's position (and only 2 combos anyway).

Now if the opponent decides to spazz out and put the flushes (4) and KQ straights (15) into his 3-betting range there are now 22 hands we beat and 20 that beat us, and we have a call. If he jams KQ only when he has the Ks (no reason really, just trying to find a break even-ish point, 3 combos), then we beat 10 of his hands and lose to 20 so if we're facing a potsize bet we are getting the right price.

I just think that ranging and looking at the possible hand combos is really important here. With enough time to think about it you should realize that so many of his weaker value hands you want him to have are just impossible given the board. It's really weird rivering the best possible card and not being able to comfortably get it in, but sometimes you just can't.

Now, while I can think about it like this given a lot of time, I couldn't possibly in-game. I probably raise/call always, although against some players I might be able to think enough to just call or raise/fold. A nit just won't get it in with a lot worse.


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