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You Choose the ACTION, Hand #3 (The Flop)

View Poll Results: What do we do here?
1) FOLD 17 89.47%
2) CALL 1 5.26%
3) BLANK (for my use to track voting, please do not select) 1 5.26%
Voters: 19. You may not vote on this poll

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You Choose the ACTION, Hand #3 (The Flop) - Fri Feb 24, 2012, 06:13 AM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
We are BACK! (Sorry for the delay folks...)

We look down at our cards, and calmly announce "Raise". We then push $75 chips forward.

Reg 2 looks at his cards, and tosses them in the middle.
Mid 20's girl pushes her cards forward into the muck as well.

The Kid stares at us. Then he looks down at his cards.
He announces "I call", and moves $75 chips forward.
We note that he has not yet announced his bets before making them in the entire time we have been at the table.

Grandma mucks her blig blind.

The New guy in seat 9 thinks for a few seconds, then he calls too.

REG 1 in Seat 2 looks back at his hand, looks at us, and each of the players in turn.
Then he too pushes a call forward.

Pot = $305

ACTION:



Flop comes Jd Td 9d

The kid sits up very straight in his seat, and quickly says "All in", and puts his remaining $361 into the pot.

Seat 9 looks confused, checks his hand again, staring at it longingly. He then sighs and mucks.

The Reg in Seat 2 looks at us quickly, thinks for maybe 2 heart beats, and announces "All in", and moves his $971 stack into the middle.

What do we do?

1) FOLD
2) CALL
3) BLANK (for my use to track voting, please do not select)

Don't forget to post your reasons for voting as you do!

Again, sorry for the delay!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 06:17 AM..
 
Old
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 06:29 AM
(#2)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
I guess Roberto did it again.
We can't really do anything else but fold, can we?
With that flop? And those bets?

I'd like to ask, though, do we show the aces, or don't we?

Because, on one hand, we are giving away free info, imply we can be bluffed (on 2 all-ins?), and all, but then on the other, we would be getting respect for a standard raise... ... right?-)
 
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 07:59 AM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Snap-fold imo. All the info we need is in the reg's opening range and his push; the facts that he's presumably TAG and that he raise/called a 3bet preflop really say a lot. It's unlikely a player like this would open any unpaired hands besides AQ+ from his seat, and it's almost certain he'd fold at least AQ to the 3bet. When the action got back around to him after we 3bet, he was getting over 4-to-1, and (hint, hint) he was getting roughly 15-to-1 in implied odds from two players at the table. I'd put him on AK and 88+ as a rough estimate of his range going to a flop. On the flop, he's basically calling an all-in, which removes 100% of bluffs from his range. He has a set or a flopped nut flush almost every time imo.
 
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 09:41 AM
(#4)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
first with fists shakin' at the heavens, i look up and scream out ROBERTOOOOOOOOO!!!!! (not really, but you get my drift) i'll really just give him the eye..he he get it?he'll know what i mean..then i .muck.. we're lookin at sets and made flushes way too often here i think to continue profitably.
even if they're just on pairs +draws and the like, we would still have to fade two cards against two villains.yuckity yuck we only have 75 invested here, and this is just too ugly
the donk lead by the excitable kid is ugly enough, but then to have a reshove as well...see ya!!.
ROBERTOOOOOOOO!!!!! ...(picture capin' Kirk)

Last edited by mtnestegg; Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 01:08 PM..
 
Old
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 09:47 AM
(#5)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don B. Cilly View Post
I'd like to ask, though, do we show the aces, or don't we?
simply....HELL NO! always keep em guessin'
 
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 10:32 AM
(#6)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I voted fold - muck the AA and accidentally knock (Ok - Throw) our drink all the way across the table where it lands in Roberto's lap so he has to go change his pants.

In the specific few cases we are still ahead on this flop, against a single pair or straight/flush draws, our equity is still not great. Given most of the range for the preflop and postflop action is better than this, I could see our best case scenario being up against a lower single pair with straight and/or flush draws, such as QdQx or KdKx. Without the Ad and against 2 opponents I would not relish getting in against QQ+with flush draws - and even AdAs is a possibility.

Everything else in their range - 99/TT/JJ for sets and made flushes have us crushed. I'm not putting either opp on KQs/o due to the strong preflop action, but AK/AQ are possible holdings - again with one or two diamonds.

So many combinations have us drawing dead already (well almost - runner runner for boat or quads might win it) and the rest of the draws are so strong against us that I'm happy to go away and wait for a better spot.

EDIT - added this thought

My only reason to ever call would be if I thought the reg was trying to fold us out with a big bet on a flush draw - the big side pot created just might (anyone do math?) be worth winning even when losing the main pot. I'm not confident that the reg is on a draw here as he knows we are a generally strong player who has acted very strong here - so I'm folding anyway. Plus I'm not sure it would be +EV to win the side pot only.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 10:37 AM..
 
Old
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 11:04 AM
(#7)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Hi Jdean,

No worries everyone knows sometimes life gets in the way. I'm just happy you take the time to come up with these.

So i umm and err, pull out the blackberry and plug in a tight range for the reg of only Straight draw no flush, down to Q9 and boom if that was all we are still flipping.

I fold (i would have folded and put the numbers in when i'm at home).

Young kid could easily have a pair if he didn't hit the flush / straight, but for Reg to see a preflop reraise from us and still go all in we are beat or he has ***'s of steel.


Grade b

As i think about this i wonder if i would really be able to make this laydown. I think i would.


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 11:06 AM
(#8)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don B. Cilly View Post
I guess Roberto did it again.
We can't really do anything else but fold, can we?
With that flop? And those bets?

I'd like to ask, though, do we show the aces, or don't we?

Because, on one hand, we are giving away free info, imply we can be bluffed (on 2 all-ins?), and all, but then on the other, we would be getting respect for a standard raise... ... right?-)
Nope.


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 11:10 AM
(#9)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdinFreeMan View Post
My only reason to ever call would be if I thought the reg was trying to fold us out with a big bet on a flush draw - the big side pot created just might (anyone do math?) be worth winning even when losing the main pot. I'm not confident that the reg is on a draw here as he knows we are a generally strong player who has acted very strong here - so I'm folding anyway. Plus I'm not sure it would be +EV to win the side pot only.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
Hi Ed, just put in a tight range for REG of 12% then edit it to include 1 dimond on this board with AA we are 42:58 dog.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 01:29 PM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
I'm folding. If I had the A diamonds, then I'd reconsider. There are so many draws out there, straights and flush, let alone someone hitting 2 pair or a set.

With 2 all-in's already before me, I'm most likely the equity underdog in the hand and will save my $$ for a better situation.

Also, with Roberto dealing, it might just be dinner time.


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 01:38 PM
(#11)
EmotiveKiwi's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 140
I Fold... without the Ad it's an easy fold for me.
 
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 01:38 PM
(#12)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
the quick straight up first reaction folowed by the shove, 1 fold, a grumpy look and another shove!!!!

i struggle with my cards and toss them

fold it is
 
Old
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 02:28 PM
(#13)
dopplerboyf5's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 149
BronzeStar
As it stands today I've been beat with so many straights that I would cut my losses and fold. I seem to have trouble reading people and it has cost me alot of hands.
 
Old
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 03:07 PM
(#14)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
The only real concern here imo is that we don't let our emotions take over after this sad turn of events.

The hand is a super easy fold imo, we are smashed by their ranges. It was kind of you to give us one of the absolute worst flops for our AA and significant action from 2 players in front, so we're not tempted to do anything silly.


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4 Time Bracelet Winner



 
Old
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 03:13 PM
(#15)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
The only real concern here imo is that we don't let our emotions take over after this sad turn of events.
100% correct. One reason that I said that it might be time to go grab some dinner. The last thing that I would want to do is to have it affect me and possibly lose a good portion of the winnings that I already have.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 03:26 PM
(#16)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,284
I voted fold, there's two all in's ahead of me, and my aces don't look nearly as strong as they did a few minutes ago. The three diamonds and the straight possibilities are enough to scare me away.
 
Old
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Sat Feb 25, 2012, 08:06 AM
(#17)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
OK Folks!

It seems the group voted overwhelmingly to FOLD! Let's see what happens...

We look at the kid, and he seems totally dis-interested in the hand. He is sitting upright in his seat, and appears to be more interested in the Basketball game on the TV than the action in the hand.

REG 1 is in a "poker pose". His hands are flat on the table on either side of his chips, he is not moving at all, and is leaning slightly forward.

We have ranged both opponents, and we simply cannot see how we are NOT beat on this hugely coordinated board. If we are behind, at most we have are 2 outs, and we may even need running cards to win. We muck our Aces, knowing we cannot win expect by the sheer quirks of fate, and $900+ is too much to pay to fade the odds...

Neither player turns his hand face up, and Roberto taps the table twice, burn a card, and rolls out the turn...

6c.

Everyone now has their attention riveted on the board cards, including the 2 participants.

Roberto taps the table twice...

He burns a card...

...and rolls out the Qc on the river.

The kid instantly tables his hand face up: Js Jc.

Reg 1 expels his breath loudly, and says "YES!" as he flips up: Ad Kh

The kid pounds the rail, and erupts in a string of curses, mainly directed at Reg 1. Reg 1 just smiles and calmly stacks the chips. Eventually the kid calms down a little bit and says "lock up my spot, I am going to the ATM to get some cash to bust this donkey!" and points at REG 1.

He leaves the table, and takes his jacket with him...

So...

Any parting thoughts from anyone?

Were you at all surprised by the hands shown down?

If you were in REG 1's spot with Ad Kh, would you have done the same thing?

If you had KNOWN REG 1 hand exactly the hand he had, would you have called his shove?

Let's discuss this one, shall we?

I will be putting up the next hand later today, but I am really interested in hearing what people think.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
Old
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Sat Feb 25, 2012, 08:11 AM
(#18)
becar1989's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 19
Hy!
For me it's a easy fold. Heavy board for us and 2 players are all in. Either someone hit straight or flush but again if someone hit nut flush all in be for me weak play. One of opp can easily have a overpair with a diamond's or a set. Risking to many money for that kind of flop. Knowing that Roberto always crushing are hand just helping us to fold. Our opp must have some kind of strong hands(from AK to TT) probably not KK or another AA.
 
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Sat Feb 25, 2012, 09:06 AM
(#19)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by becar1989 View Post
Hy!
Knowing that Roberto always crushing are hand just helping us to fold..
i hope this didn't really play into your decision
 
Old
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Sat Feb 25, 2012, 10:12 AM
(#20)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
Quote:
Were you at all surprised by the hands shown down?
Not really. I guess I'm getting a better read on the narrative :)

Quote:
If you were in REG 1's spot with Ad Kh, would you have done the same thing?
Probably. Depending on my read on the kid and my moment(um). I might have, yes.

Quote:
If you had KNOWN REG 1 ha[n]d exactly the hand he had, would you have called his shove?
Probably not. Still depending on the above, but most likely not, no.

Last edited by Don B. Cilly; Sat Feb 25, 2012 at 10:13 AM.. Reason: stray "e", same as the stray "n" in the quote :)
 

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