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2NL Limper calls raise, gets agro on turn

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2NL Limper calls raise, gets agro on turn - Fri Feb 24, 2012, 01:26 PM
(#1)
FilthyHermit's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 36
Is this guy repping bottom set or did he just get a lucky turn (with draw maybe)?

His stats are 32/16/2 (90 hands in history). We are obviously the two big stacks on the table and he seemed to be right in the middle of a card rush is the last couple of orbits to get him to his stack size.

His % to showdown is noted at 30% but through this period he bet his opponents out of the bigger pots the vast majority of the time.

I was betting for value on flop and planning to do the same on the turn with position, until the re-raise came and obviously wasn't sure where I was against him.

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Last edited by FilthyHermit; Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 01:29 PM..
 
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Fri Feb 24, 2012, 02:38 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi Filthy Hermit.

I think my prefered actions would rank in this order:

1) FOLD (pot is too small, and it may not be worth fighting over)

2) RAISE (we should only continue if we think our hand has a good chance to be good, and if that is the case, we are raising for value)

3) FLAT (allows the opp to take the betting lead, and bet us off our marginal value on the river)

In this spot, with the pot so small in relation to the stacks here, I cannot really say I dis-like your fold. It could easily be he is holding the K (especially a K hi flush draw) and if so he may well not fold if you raise the turn. Money you do NOT lose spends just the same as money you win afterall...

BUT...

You've also noted that he seems the type to try betting opponents out of pots.

I'll be really honest, this guy does NOT strike me super strong necessarily:

- If he does have a K it may be one with a weak kicker (since he didn't raise pre).

- I really do not credit him with a set here very often though, as why would a set not let you bet the turn, especially since the K may well have hit your range?

I think you could make a case for RAISING with your marginal value here, say make it around 75c to $1 to go, if we think this villain may be on a draw or a very marginal K and be willing to fold. If we are beat by a K, a raise now may well slow up an opponent enough so that our 3bet sizing is pretty much what we'd have to pay to get to show down on a call/call line with our marginal value anyway.

I think we can justify fighting to retain the betting lead with our marginal value here simply because this guy could easily have marginal value himself. The real question we have to ask is: can we get called by LESS here if we 3bet?

I think the answer to that is a marginal "yes"...

- We may get calls from flush or 8 out straight draws (with him thinking our show of strength means we will pay him implied odds to flat).

As we may be seeing a value bet here, a raise IS a risk, and taking that risk for such a small pot is not necessarily a great thing to do...but then weakly allowing this guy to run over us when we have position is not a great thing to do either.

I am just throwing out things for you to think about...

If you feel strongly that he is only leading this turn on at least a K+, and that he is quite un-likely to FOLD that K if we raise, then obviously your fold is far better. But if you suspect he may just be leading to try setting up a play at the river with a big bet a good portion of the time, a raise here is not really out of line in my opinion.


Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 03:50 PM..
 

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