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0.25$ 90mans

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0.25$ 90mans - Wed Feb 29, 2012, 01:56 PM
(#1)
nee0903's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 61


Description: I dint have any significant reads.I think the shortstack should have shoved and i wud call it off for sure preflop.Am i correct? And I would mainly like to know about calling the shove postflop.Is it a mathematically profitable call . I just called because at microstakes people in these spots mostly i have seen dont have the best hand.Please Comment

Also is the preflop open a little big to get any action?
 
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Wed Feb 29, 2012, 03:43 PM
(#2)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
The preflop open is pretty standard, a 3x raise. I usuall;y open for less at these blinds though, more like 2.5x.

With the Ace flopping, and him shoving, it's a cointoss between call and fold for me. Considering the stacksize, with 19BBs left I'd certainly consider folding. In my experience they have an ace way too foten. Then again, he's very very short with <6 BB left. Even if we call and lose, we still have 12 BB left, and can definitely come back from that. I like the call.

He flips over pocket jacks. Terrible play by him, he should have 3-bet you preflop.

Your call was correct, you had him crushed. He just got lucky.

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Always have a plan! - Wed Feb 29, 2012, 05:00 PM
(#3)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by nee0903 View Post
Description: I dint have any significant reads.I think the shortstack should have shoved and i wud call it off for sure preflop.Am i correct? And I would mainly like to know about calling the shove postflop.Is it a mathematically profitable call . I just called because at microstakes people in these spots mostly i have seen dont have the best hand.Please Comment

Also is the preflop open a little big to get any action?
Every time you make a decision in poker you need a plan. After your initial PFR, your plan is to never fold vs. the SB, no matter how he plays his 8BB stack. You are too invested in this pot, and he is too short to be picky about his hand.

The play that the SB did (whether or not knowingly) is called a ‘Stop and Go’. When the villain has a short shoving stack without much (or any) fold equity, and is OOP, he knows that you will call his shove (if he’s willing to shove). So instead of shoving outright, he will call your PFR, and shove no matter what flops! If you think about this play, he has nothing to lose (but everything to gain), because all of his chips would have been in PF anyway; at least now he has a chance to scare you off the hand. To counter this, your plan is to call his shove, or just put him AI post-flop.

Good call!

When the blinds are so high compared to the stacks, you don’t need to raise as much; usually a 2 - 2.5X raise is sufficient.
.
 
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Wed Feb 29, 2012, 08:28 PM
(#4)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Nee,

I agree with the first two posters, generally at this stage I would be raising 2.5x. A slightly smaller raise may have encouraged the shortstack to shove pre (Which yes is an easy call).

KingSpadez also hit the nail on the head with this Stop and Go play here. I'm not sure most players at 25c would use this move.

To make this call here on the flop we're putting 587 chips in to win a 1874 chip pot. So we need 31% equity at this point. So the math here is:

If 70% of the time he has an Ace we are crushed and have about 9% equity in the hand.
30% of the time we have him crushed and we have about 88% equity in the hand.

Add those up 70% * 9% + 30% * 88% = 32.7% equity.

We need him to be bluffing/semi bluffing a little more than 1/4 of the time. Add to that our stack size 19 BBs if we fold and down to 13 if we call and lose. I think it's closer than first thought. Comes down to a read on the opponent. If he was a really weak player that would call a third of his stack with Ax I think I could sigh and fold here. If he was a looser/bluffier player then I think it makes it an easier call.

A call here definately isn't bad though. These guys will just spazz out sometimes at the 25c level

BTW If we had raised 2.5x preflop we would need 34% equity to break even, and we would need the guy to be bluffing 1 time in 3. (However I think he shove more often over a 2.5x raise)

Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner


Last edited by ahar010; Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 08:42 PM.. Reason: updating equities
 
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Thu Mar 01, 2012, 12:04 AM
(#5)
nee0903's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 61
thanks King_spades1 ..makes sense .
 
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Thu Mar 01, 2012, 12:08 AM
(#6)
nee0903's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 61
Thanks Andy, btw are we supposed to make these calculations during the hand.I know how to do them but it takes time and otherwise i mostly prefer to just use reads instead of mathematics in this spot.Should my play in these spots depend more on reads or mathematics or both?
 
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Thu Mar 01, 2012, 02:54 AM
(#7)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Nee,

Short answer is No in the hand you don't need to do the full calculations. But in this kind of spot it's definately worth doing some quick estimations.

I would look at the cost to call and size of the pot to work out the odds we are getting. In this case 3:1. So I know roughly I need 33% equity or win 1 time in 3. Then I would assume if he has an A I will lose the hand if he doesn't I will win the hand.

For me that would be a close enough guess that he needs to be bluffing (Not have the Ace) 1 time in 3.

Since I think I'm probably losing here most of the time. The second thing I would think about is how many chips would a call leave me with.

Looking at the exact math after a hand lets us refine our estimates in this situation over time.

Thanks
Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Thu Mar 01, 2012, 08:47 AM
(#8)
annie_22at90's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 864
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahar010 View Post
Hi Nee,

Short answer is No in the hand you don't need to do the full calculations. But in this kind of spot it's definately worth doing some quick estimations.

I would look at the cost to call and size of the pot to work out the odds we are getting. In this case 3:1. So I know roughly I need 33% equity or win 1 time in 3. Then I would assume if he has an A I will lose the hand if he doesn't I will win the hand.

For me that would be a close enough guess that he needs to be bluffing (Not have the Ace) 1 time in 3.

Since I think I'm probably losing here most of the time. The second thing I would think about is how many chips would a call leave me with.

Looking at the exact math after a hand lets us refine our estimates in this situation over time.

Thanks
Andy
Two questions for Andy:

With 3:1, isn't it 25% to win 1 of 4?

To call the flop bet, isn't it 587 to win 1287 or 21%?
I see these calculations done two ways; as in your example (adding the call of the bet into the total pot) and as above and am not sure which is correct.

Last edited by annie_22at90; Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 09:09 AM..
 
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Thu Mar 01, 2012, 02:23 PM
(#9)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by annie_22at90 View Post
Two questions for Andy:

With 3:1, isn't it 25% to win 1 of 4?
Sorry yes this should be 2:1. Meaning we put in the 1 and there's 2 in pot already. Meaning we need 33% equity.

Quote:
Originally Posted by annie_22at90 View Post

To call the flop bet, isn't it 587 to win 1287 or 21%?
I see these calculations done two ways; as in your example (adding the call of the bet into the total pot) and as above and am not sure which is correct.
The method to calculate the equity you need here is the money you put in divided by the total pot after you have put your money in. In this case 587 / 1874 = 31%.

The way you can confirm it is look at your expected outcome. If the pot is 1874 and we win it 31% of the time. Then on average we win 1874 * 31% = 581 which means 31% is roughly our breakeven point.

Thanks
Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 

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