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$1.50 Fifty50 Bubble

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$1.50 Fifty50 Bubble - Fri Mar 02, 2012, 05:25 AM
(#1)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
I'm a bit rusty at these Fifty50s. What's the best line in this bubble situation?

The big blind Ruben is sitting out. The villian is a TAG multitabler sitting on several of my current tables. I put him on A9s, 77+ or better hand (top 11%). After 300 hands he is running 9% VPIP and raising every hand he has entered. On another table he is in my sb and I have reraised his steal attempts several times forcing him to fold.

Since he is multitabling, I assume he is running a HUD and now has 300 hands on me. I was about 11%VPIP 8%RF on these tables.

I figured he had an understanding of ICM and was likely fold most hands in this spot, and that my 10s would hold up against some of the hands in his potential calling range (top5%); AK and perhaps 88 and 99.



Is it better to fold in this spot with a medium pair, or is shoving the way to go? Running a StopnGo doesn't seem too appealing, but I guess it might be a viable option.

Roland GTX

Last edited by Roland GTX; Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 06:24 AM..
 
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Fri Mar 02, 2012, 11:08 AM
(#2)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Hi Roland,

I'm new to these (played 5 in Feb and now 4 in March for eds new challange.)

I have been playing them in the same way i would a standard STT

And as you have 3 BB's left and TT i would like you make the call here.

I would rather have shoved but you can't have everything in life.

I shall watch this thread with intrest and see if i can pick up some pointers for my game.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Mar 02, 2012, 11:25 AM
(#3)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
This is a close spot for me - I don't really want to be flipping my stack with TT against AK/AQ/AJ/KQ/KJ/QJ - and obviously I don't want to be up against a bigger pair.

I'm looking at stack sizes and reads before I decide. I'm folding pretty often to a raise by a tight player, but if I think they will fold to a shove or I am likely to be ahead of most of their range I will shove. I'm never calling a raise here - it's a shove or fold.

Given the stack sizes and your specific reads I am probably folding. Not much of their opening range is smaller pairs than TT. A large part of their range is AJ+and JJ plus and two overcards QJs etc - I am happy to let this go at this stage of this format.

Edit: Added this additional thought.

As it is the bubble I would like to shove if I was first to act - but not against this particular player's raise with a player behind in the BB still to act.

On the bubble - with our chip advantage over the small stack and still 10BB if we fold - I'm almost always folding. If the raiser with a bigger stack calls our shove we are usually flipping at best for our tournament life.

I'm not sure that my line is correct - as we can pick up extra prize value if we fold out the BB & the raiser - for instance if the opp is a TAG who will raise/fold often with steal attempts - but I am tending to be cautious here.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 11:58 AM..
 
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Fri Mar 02, 2012, 12:16 PM
(#4)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
That grade b is a prat....

Just watched the vid again you did not start with 600 chips but the way the vid ends that what it looked like at end of the tape.

So my first response was based on only having 3 bb's you really have 10 BB then its an borderline call.
As you say he is folding to reshoves, then if i believe he would i may shove here but i will probabily end up folding.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by Grade b; Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 06:15 PM.. Reason: added word not in
 
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Fri Mar 02, 2012, 02:47 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,824
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Hi Roland!

Thanks for the read info, as this definitely will play into my decision.

It's the bubble, but I'm sitting with the basically the 2nd lowest stack (I'll blind out before the sitter if I can't win a hand). Also, in this format, every chip that I have at the end is worth extra $$, so I want to be more aggressive in accumulating chips near the bubble.

I agree with you that I would not want to run a stop/go here too. With the opp playing 9%, they could easily hit any overcard on the flop and I would not want to give the opp that chance. Also, there is a history of the opp, where they are trying to steal and will fold to a raise. With the BB sitting, there's less of a chance of someone calling or raising with a marginal hand, so this opening raise could easily be a steal.

A pair of 10's, from pokerstove, is a favorite against a top 9% hand and is only a slight underdog if the opp narrows that to a top 5% hand.
Even if I have zero fold equity (which is obviouisly not the case) and the opp calls everytime, I'd only have 44% invested in the pot with a shove and call by UTG. If the opp has a top 5% hand, it's only a very marginal -EV play, but with the fold equity, as they have proven that they will fold a worse hand, this will turn into a +EV play if they call with a top 5% hand. If they call with their full 9% range, I'm the favorite in the hand, so it's definitely a +EV play.
If the opp folds, I also gain 56% of my current stack in chips, which is a very sizable amount at this stage of the tourney and each chip is worth $$ at the end of the tourney (42 cent gain everytime the opp folds).

I like the shove here as the play will be +EV both in chips and in $$$ from the tourney, as the opp will fold their worse hands if this is a steal and if they call, I'm either ahead or in a very marginal -EV spot.

If I had more chips and was in a better situation, I may fold here, but as a small stack that could easily need chips in order to get ITM, I like the shove and would do the same thing.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Mar 02, 2012, 03:09 PM
(#6)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Hi Roland!

Thanks for the read info, as this definitely will play into my decision.

It's the bubble, but I'm sitting with the basically the 2nd lowest stack (I'll blind out before the sitter if I can't win a hand). Also, in this format, every chip that I have at the end is worth extra $$, so I want to be more aggressive in accumulating chips near the bubble.

I agree with you that I would not want to run a stop/go here too. With the opp playing 9%, they could easily hit any overcard on the flop and I would not want to give the opp that chance. Also, there is a history of the opp, where they are trying to steal and will fold to a raise. With the BB sitting, there's less of a chance of someone calling or raising with a marginal hand, so this opening raise could easily be a steal.

A pair of 10's, from pokerstove, is a favorite against a top 9% hand and is only a slight underdog if the opp narrows that to a top 5% hand.
Even if I have zero fold equity (which is obviouisly not the case) and the opp calls everytime, I'd only have 44% invested in the pot with a shove and call by UTG. If the opp has a top 5% hand, it's only a very marginal -EV play, but with the fold equity, as they have proven that they will fold a worse hand, this will turn into a +EV play if they call with a top 5% hand. If they call with their full 9% range, I'm the favorite in the hand, so it's definitely a +EV play.
If the opp folds, I also gain 56% of my current stack in chips, which is a very sizable amount at this stage of the tourney and each chip is worth $$ at the end of the tourney (42 cent gain everytime the opp folds).

I like the shove here as the play will be +EV both in chips and in $$$ from the tourney, as the opp will fold their worse hands if this is a steal and if they call, I'm either ahead or in a very marginal -EV spot.

If I had more chips and was in a better situation, I may fold here, but as a small stack that could easily need chips in order to get ITM, I like the shove and would do the same thing.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)

Hi John -

This is very interesting - could you expand and maybe show calculations as to why a shove is +ev.

I had missed the fact that the BB was sat out - that would affect my decision - especially if they have been sat out for the whole tourney or for several hands and show no sign of returning - as I might blind down before them but actually would expect to take their blind at some stage so outlast them - I would give myself a very good chance of beating both the small stack and the very similar stack that is sitting out if I fold.

The chips in the pot from the dead money and raise are worth much less than the chips we have. Nice to add them but at the risk of our tourney life?

How often when the opp. calls our shove are we winning with tens?

I am not good at putting these points into calculations - so any more detailed analysis would be appreciated. I'm still convinced this is a fold.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Fri Mar 02, 2012, 03:56 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,824
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EdinFreeMan View Post
This is very interesting - could you expand and maybe show calculations as to why a shove is +ev.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
Here's how I get the numbers.
Since the opp is playing the top 9% and maybe calling a shove with top 5%, they could fold about 1/2 the time. Let's say that the opp folds 20% of the time, to be conservative.
Since within this range (top 5% to top 9%), lets also use a 50-50 win %.. it could be slightly better or could be slightly worse but this makes the math easier.

In the 20% of the time that the opp folds:
EV = 0.2 * [42 cents (amount gained from the chips in the pot at 4 cents/100 chips) + 1.35 from winning the tourney]

In the 40% that I win the hand from a shove:
EV = 0.4 * [$0.93 (amount from the chips I win) + $1.35 from cashing]

In the 40% that I lose:
EV = 0.4 * (-$1.50)

By adding the three EV's together, it's a +EV of 67 cents to shove here.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Mar 02, 2012, 07:09 PM
(#8)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Very interesting stuff here. Getting these choices right is critical to our long term ROI I belive. I'm skiing this weekend and writing an expensive reply from my cell phone ill study this more closely on Sunday. Thanks! Roland GTX
 

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