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Wbcoop deepstack

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Wbcoop deepstack - Fri Mar 02, 2012, 04:39 PM
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nee0903's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 61




This was late in the WBCOOP tournament deep stacked...14 players left..10-18 paid equally.Although i dint have any HUD stats on the villain..i had seen him making some good movies earlier..I have put up this hand here mainly to know about the mathematics behind my calls there..
The villain min reraised so he was mostly having premium hands...eventhough postflop i knew i was pretty much behind.. i was chasing the draw thinking that mathematically i could be profitable(and also was a bit exhausted due to long hrs of play and odd timings) but i think i have made a big mistake ..i had 12 outs 9clubs and 3 10's..i roughly calculated my odds against improving on the turn to be 3:1 but i was getting pot odds 2:1(putting 24K in a pot of 48K)..so i shouldnt have made that call. Is this correct ?
 
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Fri Mar 02, 2012, 08:38 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
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Hi nee0903!

First, great run in the tourney. I agree with your thought process. Here's why.

On the flop, KJs has 12 outs (9 to the flush and 3 more to the straight). This gives me 12 outs or 24% to hit just the turn. To call a pot size bet is 33%. The pot % is higher than my hand %, so I should fold.

Now... let's look at the turn play, if I'm still in the hand. I still have 12 outs and the odds to hit on the river are 24%. To call here, I need to put 39913 into a pot of 154514 (25.8%). This is slightly higher than my hand's equity... so the turn would be a marginal fold, but a call I'd most likely make due to the pot size.

There is another play that would be +EV here.... to shove over them on the flop. If the opp would fold, then I take down the pot without a contest (they most likely won't with AK, but I don't know that they specifically have that hand. It's in their range, but so are other combinations).
If I shove, I'm putting 64809 into a pot that will be 154514 (41.9%). I have 12 outs and two shots at my 12 outs, so my hand equity if I see both cards is 12*4% or 48%.
By shoving and guaranteeing that I see both cards, with my hand having 48% equity and only putting 41.9% into the pot, thus making a shove on the flop a +EV play.

Due to this, instead of calling their flop bet, I'm going to shove over them.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 12:10 AM
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nee0903's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 61
Thanks John, I agree with your thoughts..i feel i have played this hand very badly..i knew for sure he had an A and was betting big to not give me enough odds to chase..
 

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