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Tough spot TPTK?

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Tough spot TPTK? - Fri Mar 02, 2012, 10:11 PM
(#1)
darkmajik365's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 191


15 from the bubble, 3rd ship this guy has done at the table in 1 orbit since he moved and second on me, i had already folded tptk to him when he shipped the turn when an overcard to my top pair had hit. I think I have to call all day here and it's just another one of those mtt variance spots, is this correct and am I being to results orientated here? I pokerprolabbed him before making the call and he is a complete fish with very poor stats so for me he has plenty worse top pairs easilly in his range as well us draws.
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 12:02 AM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Super easy call imo. I think it would be a tough spot against a random opponent, because the board looks pretty dry. There are no possible hands that someone can have on this board that would give them a strong draw to semibluff, so without reads, calling is really just hoping he's bad enough to have KQ, or that he's aggro enough to shove an OESD. And since the villain overbet-shoved and we're near the bubble (no idea from what kind of tournament, though), I think there are ways to find a fold here. But not against a big stack who's been all-in two other times in the last nine hands.
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 12:47 AM
(#3)
nee0903's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 61
Hi Darkmajik, I would probably fold here..because ur bet on flop was big and in a 3 way pot it shows strength..So a decent player should definitely be putting u on the hand that u r holding..Also when the villain shoves..as u said he was a weak player..there will be more KJ,K8s in his preflop calling ranges..so i could fold there..Villain shipping 3 times could be a card rush also..A tough spot though ..very difficult to give away this hand..most of the times here we can just hope that he has a weak king without the J or 8 as kicker..

Last edited by nee0903; Sat Mar 03, 2012 at 12:58 AM..
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 02:07 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Hi darkmajik,

This spot is so read-based.

With 30 BBs to start the hand, in general we should be happy to stack off on any AK hit.He can have as wide as KQ, KT, K9, AQ, AT, QT, Q9, T9, T7, and wider depending on the opponent. This looks like a nice spot to double up. You also still have some shot against two pair hands J8 and KJ, and a backdoor flush draw and straight draw for an extra ~4% equity.

This is very opponent-dependent though. Against the typical opponent I think we just get it in. Against other specific player-types:

Passive player - I'd fold. Passive player's raising range is likely AK+. Most of which has you in very bad shape.

Aggressive player who thinks he can push you off a hand like top pair/you c-bet here a lot - Call. He can have a lot of draws here, air, and he realizes this is kind of a scary flop for a preflop raiser. He also may just be trying to push you off of AQ, AJ, etc.

Aggressive player who thinks you're only making a strong c-bet strong with a hand you're unlikely to fold - Fold. You look really strong and he doesn't figure to have much fold equity. With stacks this deep he's probably unlikely to take a low fold equity gamble on a draw or bluff, so you're against a very strong range and should fold against a thinking aggressive player.

Crazy maniac - call obviously.


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