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Non-Showdown Winnings

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Non-Showdown Winnings - Sat Mar 03, 2012, 09:31 AM
(#1)
sydhollow97's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 82
Just found this graph on my Poker Copilot and it seems I'm losing like 20$ over 25k hands. It was going down steadily for the first 12.5k all the way down to -$30. After 12.5 k it seemed to start going up in slight increments until I hit -$12 and in the past 3.5k hands it went down to -$20. What does this mean? Is this a leak I need to start working on? It seems my playing got quite a bit better in the second half of the 25k where i made 58$ compared to the first 12.5k with a profit of $35. Any ideas?
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 05:29 PM
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Posts: 3,145
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Hi SydHollow.

What levels are you playing?

-$20 over 25k hands is really a small negative, and that can easily be cause by the rake.

Is your rewards and any rake back factored into that loss?

It does strike me that looking at your results in 12.5k increments, and seeing that you are trending in the right direction is probably a good indication you are improving. Obviously that does not mean you will be immune to short term down swings, but looking at your results over the larger sampling seems to be pointing to good things...

I'd say try to do a screen capture of your graph and post it here, maybe that will give a bit more info than your written, but things sound nice to me!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 06:12 PM
(#3)
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Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Hi SydHollow.

What levels are you playing?

-$20 over 25k hands is really a small negative, and that can easily be cause by the rake.

Is your rewards and any rake back factored into that loss?

It does strike me that looking at your results in 12.5k increments, and seeing that you are trending in the right direction is probably a good indication you are improving. Obviously that does not mean you will be immune to short term down swings, but looking at your results over the larger sampling seems to be pointing to good things...

I'd say try to do a screen capture of your graph and post it here, maybe that will give a bit more info than your written, but things sound nice to me!

-JDean
Hey JDean,

I'm playing 1c/2c. And the thought about the rake didn't even cross my mind while posting this. I'd love to post my graph on here for you to examine, but I've been having quite a bit of trouble with posting it in my blog even. Any help with posting images on the forums? I'd really like it if someone took a few minutes to examine my graphs. Also, the reason I posted this sort of in 12.5k increments is because I've only played 25k hands. So this is really all the information I have on my play

Please help with the "picture in post" dilema even if you're not willing to thoroughly examine it. I definitely want to add my bankroll graph to my posts on my blog for future reference.

Thank in advance,
Luke

P.S. - No, I haven't factored in any losses, and still trying to figure out what "rakeback" actually is lol : \

Last edited by sydhollow97; Sat Mar 03, 2012 at 06:15 PM..
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 06:27 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi Sydhollow.

I use: http://photobucket.com/

What you do is pretty simple:

1) open your HUD.
2) copy/paste all info to a "paint" document. I am not sure if your hud allows this, but it should.
3) save the paint doc on your desk top.
4) go to photo bucket, register a free account, and up load the paint doc.

If you cannot copy/paste to a paint doc form your hud, try saving your hud data to your desk top, and then opening that in paint like you were going to modify it. Save the paint doc and up load it to photo bucket.

when you get it loaded in photo bucket, select the "image" link, and paste that in the forum. The document you up loaded will then appear in the forum. the link you load into a blog is different, but photo bucket creates all normal link types, so just pick the one for a blog and use it there.

that should work!

"Rake back" is a deal some sites allow you to enter into where a portion of the rake you generate is automatically credited back to your account on a periodic basis. I am not sure if Poker Stars has any formal rake back deals going now, but their rewards program is similar: in that for every 750 FPP you earn, you receive $10 cash back.

For a lot of players, that bonus amount can be the difference between being a long term winner and a small long term loser.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 06:31 PM
(#5)
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Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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One of my favorite "captures":



Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 06:47 PM
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Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 82
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 06:51 PM
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Posts: 82
Ah it worked! Sudden rush of "I feel smart." anyways, this is the detailed bankroll screenshot. I believe the bankroll one just shows the blue line and thats it. I'll also post my "advances Statistics" in a second. Maybe it could also be of some interest.
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 06:53 PM
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 07:27 PM
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Posts: 82
Also, a quick question I'd like answered after you take a look at my graph is if I'm somewhat ready to move up to 2c/5c. My bankroll is floating around the $105 mark at the moment and I haven't really ran into any extreme downswings during my play. Bad beats of course were unavoidable and they tend to come with tilt close behind them, but I've done "my best" to either just say "It's just POKAH!" (yes, Tony G quote. Can't help it . He was born in same city I was.) or just walk away from the computer and do something productive... you know, like make a sandwich . Should I expect some bigger drops on that blue line in the course of 200k hands or so?

Thanks,
Luke
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 07:49 PM
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Posts: 3,145
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Nice graphs...

First, when you typed in your stuff, I thought you were saying you were $20 down TOTAL...that was not a terrible result really if it was without rake back/bonuses, as in 25k hands you probably were right around break even. This graph is FAR better than that

As for your specific Q, about non showdown winnings...

That non showdown graph includes too much differing info bits to really be an effective tool for analyzing your play in my opinion. It includes:

- Hands you "chase" (call on) then fold
- Hands you bluff/semi bluff then fold
- Hands with marginal value you "peel" (call on) then fold
- Hands you bet as bluff/semi bluffs and induce folds
- Hands you bet as value and induce folds

Each of these decisions may be reasonable in a given situation depending on your hand and the opponents' tendencies, so lumping them all together in 1 graph does not tell you a whole lot, see?

I can say that at the micro stakes you are playing, bluffs/semi bluffs (or ANY bet made with an eye toward getting an opp to fold) will tend to work far less often due to the general tendency of players at that level to call too much. This alone can push the totality of the non show down graph firmly and irretrievably into the red.

'Peeling" to see the turn with marginal value (like 2nd pair/top kicker and a back door nut flush draw) can be a perfectly acceptable play to sort of 'balance" your flop actions between betting/raising and calling, and that balance can tend to result in greater pay off on your strong value hands versus even weak players. Again though, doing this can result in some red numbers on non showdown hands as well.

A simple way to increase your profitability in non show down hands would be to adopt a "pounder bettor" style, coupled with a tight entry range so you are bashing opp's over the heads with a strong range. Truth be known though, changing what you are doing now simply to raise an in-effective measure of your play would be pretty dumb. It strikes me that the amount you are losing by not getting to show down is perfectly fine, and trying to adjust your play when it is this effective would simply result you you making LESS in the hands you do show down.

It seems to me this graph looks uber strong, so keep up doing EXACTLY what you are doing, and do not sweat non shown down hands!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 08:05 PM
(#11)
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Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sydhollow97 View Post
Also, a quick question I'd like answered after you take a look at my graph is if I'm somewhat ready to move up to 2c/5c. My bankroll is floating around the $105 mark at the moment and I haven't really ran into any extreme downswings during my play. Bad beats of course were unavoidable and they tend to come with tilt close behind them, but I've done "my best" to either just say "It's just POKAH!" (yes, Tony G quote. Can't help it . He was born in same city I was.) or just walk away from the computer and do something productive... you know, like make a sandwich . Should I expect some bigger drops on that blue line in the course of 200k hands or so?

Thanks,
Luke
Howdy again Luke...

As you seem to have a decent win rate (ok, a very good one!) on a solid sampling of hands, it is only natural that you think about moving up. I seriously doubt that you'll see a huge difference in playing skill between the 1c/2c and 2c/5c games so I don;t think you;d have an issue on that front.

As you ARE a winning player though (at least over 25k hands, roughly the equivalent of 835 hrs of live play, which is a bit under 6 months of 40 hour weeks), BR management is a concern for you...

You see, BR management is not really a huge deal for a losing player; a losing player is going to only be able to slow down his rate of loss by managing his money. For a WINNING player though, BR management is critical, as they can EXPECT to win, but will inevitably hit some rough patches along the way. The winning player has to STAY IN ACTION until those down swings pass...

Right now, you are funded to the tune of about 50BI to a 2NL game (the 1c/2c you are playing). Maintaining your current trends, you probably will not go bust-o on that amount, and can keep banging profitably until the micro donks catch up to you.

If you move up NOW to the 2c/5c level though (5NL), you will be right around 20BI. That really is not much of a cushion, as a standard BR for a tight player (low variance) would probably be at least 25 to 30BI. Still, as there is not much of a difference in skill between the level you want to go to, and the one you are at, what I'd suggest is this:

Give yourself a "challenge"

Take 5BI for the 2c/5c level out of your total BR (25$, or about 25%), "take a shot" at the higher BI level.

If you bust off that amount, move back down to 2NL, recover to $100, then try a $25 stab again.

Wash, rinse, repeat until you TRIPLE your $25 "mini BR" in profit (show $75 profit) to give you a "proper" $200 roll of 40BI for the 2c/5c. Even if you get CLOSE to the $75 in profit, but you eventually lose your $25 "take a shot" investment amount, move back down and recover...you will have NOT "succeeded" in your personal challenge.

If you "succeed" in this challenge you set for yourself without falling below your $25 investment, then you can confidently feel you are ready to consider 5NL as your "new level", and you are then free to stay there and play through a down swing (altho if you get on a really BAD one and fall back to around $50 or $60, you may want to step down again).

If you fail a time or 2 to work your challenge, review your records from the specific 5NL play and see if things are different in opponent skill. Make your adjustments, recover by beating a level you know you can beat, and take another swing at 'em when you are re-built.

If you do your move up that way, I think you'll be just fine.

Good luck!

...and more importantly, "good decisions!"

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sat Mar 03, 2012 at 08:27 PM..
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 08:18 PM
(#12)
sydhollow97's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Nice graphs...

First, when you typed in your stuff, I thought you were saying you were $20 down TOTAL...that was not a terrible result really if it was without rake back/bonuses, as in 25k hands you probably were right around break even. This graph is FAR better than that

As for your specific Q, about non showdown winnings...

That non showdown graph includes too much differing info bits to really be an effective tool for analyzing your play in my opinion. It includes:

- Hands you "chase" (call on) then fold
- Hands you bluff/semi bluff then fold
- Hands with marginal value you "peel" (call on) then fold
- Hands you bet as bluff/semi bluffs and induce folds
- Hands you bet as value and induce folds

Each of these decisions may be reasonable in a given situation depending on your hand and the opponents' tendencies, so lumping them all together in 1 graph does not tell you a whole lot, see?

I can say that at the micro stakes you are playing, bluffs/semi bluffs (or ANY bet made with an eye toward getting an opp to fold) will tend to work far less often due to the general tendency of players at that level to call too much. This alone can push the totality of the non show down graph firmly and irretrievably into the red.

'Peeling" to see the turn with marginal value (like 2nd pair/top kicker and a back door nut flush draw) can be a perfectly acceptable play to sort of 'balance" your flop actions between betting/raising and calling, and that balance can tend to result in greater pay off on your strong value hands versus even weak players. Again though, doing this can result in some red numbers on non showdown hands as well.

A simple way to increase your profitability in non show down hands would be to adopt a "pounder bettor" style, coupled with a tight entry range so you are bashing opp's over the heads with a strong range. Truth be known though, changing what you are doing now simply to raise an in-effective measure of your play would be pretty dumb. It strikes me that the amount you are losing by not getting to show down is perfectly fine, and trying to adjust your play when it is this effective would simply result you you making LESS in the hands you do show down.

It seems to me this graph looks uber strong, so keep up doing EXACTLY what you are doing, and do not sweat non shown down hands!

-JDean
Thank you for taking the time to analyze my results so far. It's definitely a boost to my "ego" if you will to have someone give me such a great feedback on the hours I've spent grinding away at these low stakes. I think I'm definitely ready to free my mind of this whole "Non-showdown" thing. It just seemed worrying at first to see a 20-30$ loss in something with no idea of what it meant. If there's anything else you'd like to add I'm all ears. I've improved drastically with the help of PSO and I definitely don't want to slow down. Do I have to worry about any bigger downswings? I know they happen, but I'm still a little unsure of the actual meaning of a "downswing". How bad do they get? I'm guessing 25k hands is really not that much to include all "emotions" of poker, and with this being my only chance to continue on playing, learning, and hopefully gradually moving up in stakes, I sort of want to be prepared for the worse. Maybe I'll just try to get up to $110 and open up 2 tables with a $5 buy-in each. I'll try not to go down below $100 and if I fail at the at the two tables I'll reevaluate if it was bad play or bad beat. If it was a bad beat I'll drop down to 1/2 again and take another shot once I have $10 again. If it was bad play I'll stick to 1/2 until $125 or so and take another shot then.
Thanks,
Luke

Last edited by sydhollow97; Sat Mar 03, 2012 at 08:33 PM..
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 08:31 PM
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Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sydhollow97 View Post
Thank you for taking the time to analyze my results so far. It's definitely a boost to my "ego" if you will to have someone give me such a great feedback on the hours I've spent grinding away at these low stakes. I think I'm definitely ready to free my mind of this whole "Non-showdown" thing. It just seemed worrying at first to see a 20-30$ loss in something with no idea of what it meant. If there's anything else you'd like to add I'm all ears. I've improved drastically with the help of PSO and I definitely don't want to slow down. Do I have to worry about any bigger downswings? I know they happen, but I'm still a little unsure of the actual meaning of a "downswing". How bad do they get? I'm guessing 25k hands is really not that much to include all "emotions" of poker, and with this being my only chance to continue on playing, learning, and hopefully gradually moving up in stakes, I sort of want to be prepared for the worse. Maybe just try to get up to $110 and open up 2 tables with a $5 buy-in each? What do you think?

Thanks,
Luke
See above, I beat you to it.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 08:36 PM
(#14)
sydhollow97's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
See above, I beat you to it.

-JDean
Lol thanks.
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 08:39 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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No, thank YOU...

I am really enjoying your forum contributions, your thoughts and questions are truly a bonus to PSO!

See ya!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 08:46 PM
(#16)
sydhollow97's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
No, thank YOU...

I am really enjoying your forum contributions, your thoughts and questions are truly a bonus to PSO!

See ya!

-JDean
Gonna shoot for member of the month one of these days So look out for me lol
 
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Sat Mar 03, 2012, 11:40 PM
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joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
Very interesting post, I was curious about the analysis of the non-showdown stat. I was having a hard time imagining that this was a fault in your play, since you have an overall win rate that is quite impressive.

Keep up the good work!!

 
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Sun Mar 04, 2012, 06:10 PM
(#18)
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Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 82
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Originally Posted by Deleted user View Post
Your red line seems to be just leaky in the blinds in my guess. But it is just a guess. Take a think back to how much did you actually let go of your blinds in the 25k hands uncontested and you may have an answer. Gl, nice results bring up that red line you would see a slight shift in the winnings, but should still benefit. Nice job partner.
Yea, I do tend to be a little passive in the blinds. I've started putting in a little work on my 3-bet game
which is mostly focused on play in the blinds with an open from late position, but it's still in one of those "I just hope this works" stages. My blind stealing has been making up for a lot of the blinds I do let go, as I do tend to steal pretty wide. I've really been feeling great after JDean commented that my bankroll graph looks good, which has sort of allowed me to experiment in a couple areas of my overall play without being too afraid.

I'm really just realizing how important self-confidence is... it definitely gives you the chance to veer off from your regular game a little to try a couple different things to see if they work better.
In this whole 25k hands, every hand has been accompanied by the thought of "I'm not really sure of myself." and now instead of feeling that my "game" has been a loose puzzle where in every hand I was looking to see which 2 puzzle pieces fit together, I finally feel like I've put enough of it together where I can comfortably try to change some pieces around without loosing the big picture.
 
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Mon Mar 05, 2012, 04:43 AM
(#19)
JDean's Avatar
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Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sydhollow97 View Post
Yea, I do tend to be a little passive in the blinds. I've started putting in a little work on my 3-bet game
which is mostly focused on play in the blinds with an open from late position, but it's still in one of those "I just hope this works" stages. My blind stealing has been making up for a lot of the blinds I do let go, as I do tend to steal pretty wide. I've really been feeling great after JDean commented that my bankroll graph looks good, which has sort of allowed me to experiment in a couple areas of my overall play without being too afraid.

I'm really just realizing how important self-confidence is... it definitely gives you the chance to veer off from your regular game a little to try a couple different things to see if they work better.
In this whole 25k hands, every hand has been accompanied by the thought of "I'm not really sure of myself." and now instead of feeling that my "game" has been a loose puzzle where in every hand I was looking to see which 2 puzzle pieces fit together, I finally feel like I've put enough of it together where I can comfortably try to change some pieces around without loosing the big picture.
hmmm....

A thought here Luke:

You've shown that you can beat the micro donks at 1c/2c, but that does NOT mean playing 'fancy" is going to keep beating them.

The stuff that might work well versus more skilled opponents will NOT work as well versus weak players.

A good example is something I read in Mike Caro. He said:

"Your profit in poker comes from your value hands. You should seek to 'break even' on your bluff attempts as those will tend to set up GREATER return for your value hands later on versus better players." <not a direct quote>

He went on to say that if you are making too much on your bluffs, you are probably bluffing too LITTLE, and not getting enough calls. The problem with this (of course) is that not only will your bluffs not be getting calls, but your value bets will not be getting calls either, thus you are probably missing some profit potential.

If you are losing too much on your bluffs, you are probably bluffing too often, and getting too MANY calls. Against aware opponents, you may inadvertantly be expressing patterns in your betting which are triggering calls of your bluff shots, and this will probably be costing you money not only on your bluffs, but also on your value hands that are NOT getting calls.

If you are NOT expressing patterns in your betting, your value hands will tend to get paid off more frequently if your bluffs are costing you money, but the frequency of you holding strong value hands is finite, therefore the amount you may re-coup from value hands is also finite. "Changing gears" to bluff less will likely save you lost money vs aware players, and not immediately effect the likelihood of you getting called when you hold value.

Obviously, with lesser skilled and less aware opponents at the micro stakes, the "need" to balance your bluff frequency to enhance profit is not as great. Their collective "leak" is that they call too much anyway, so there is not a great usefulness in trying to cause more calls by being caught bluffing, see?

There is a tru-ism in poker that says: "You have to give action, to get action".

Agaisnt micro donks though, getting action is not really a worry...you will get it no matter WHAT you do, and solid folds will likely be quite rare. Just keep in mind, taking micro donks to "value town" on your strong hands is always going to be the way to go, and trying to get MORE action by using tricky tactics that are better suited to only aware players is NOT likely to increase your profits, and it could hurt them.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 

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