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AJ suited, now w

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AJ suited, now w - Sun Mar 04, 2012, 05:52 AM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
pretty early in a 9man. Pretty bad play all around.



Thought process is simple: preflop I'm raising with the AJ suited. I'm not gonna fold it to a minraise either. The flop's pretty decent, all undercards and the nut flush draw. Opponent makes an almost pot sized bet. So now what.

1] fold it. You missed, better luck next time.

On the other hand: a flush draw to the nuts has 9 outs twice, and an ace will probably be good too, so that makes 12 outs twice for almost 50% equity. So we can

2] flat call this, and be prepared to call a shove on the river with a lot worse equity (can't fold once I call this)
3] following the "can't fold once I call this" we can shove right here. Heck, these guys are bad enough to actually fold to my shove.

Which would you have done?

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Sun Mar 04, 2012, 01:46 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi Ov3rsight!

Preflop, making a standard open with AJs is the same play that I will make in this situation. The raise that the opp makes is not a min raise, as a min raise would be to 210.
Calling this raise would be based on any read that I had on the opp. If they were playing extremely tight, then I'd muck. If the opp was playing looser, then I'll call.

The flop gives me two overs and the nut flush draw. Since the opp raised preflop, I would check to them. The opp now bets 530 into a pot that will be 1675 if I call (31.6%). I have 9 outs to the flush and possibly 6 more outs (three J's and three A's). However, I don't know if all of these outs are good. The outs for the A could easily be compromised, as AK, AQ, A2s, A6s, A9s are well within the opp's range.
If all of the outs are good, I have 15 outs, or 30% hand equity to get to the turn. If not all of the outs are good, then I have less equity in my hand. Due to this being lower than the pot equity %, I do not want to call here.

Now, I'll see if shoving over the opps bet is a +EV play or not. It will take 1125 to get the opp all-in, into a pot that will be 2865 (39.3%). If all 15 outs are good, I will have 15*4% or 60% equity (since I'm guaranteed to see both cards), or if some outs are not good, this will be less. Even just for the 9 outs to the nut flush, I'd have 9*4% or 36% equity.
This makes a shove here, most likely at worst a very small -EV play and possibly a large +EV play.. depending on the exact number of outs that I have that are actually good.

In this situation, I would not be calling the opp's bet, so it would turn into a shove/fold play on the flop. If I think that the opp could ever fold to my shove, then that will make even the lower number of outs be an even or +EV play.... so I'm shoving the flop in this situation.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Mar 04, 2012, 01:50 PM
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Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
The rest of the hand: I shoved the flop, he called with pockety jacks. No flush.
 
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Sun Mar 04, 2012, 02:29 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ov3rsight View Post
The rest of the hand: I shoved the flop, he called with pockety jacks. No flush.
Unfortunately, that's going to happen sometimes.... which is a great example of why bankroll management is important. Making the best play doesn't always mean a player's going to win the hand.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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