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Value bet or take the safe route?

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Value bet or take the safe route? - Sun Mar 04, 2012, 06:26 AM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
9man SnG again. I labeled the opponent as a very weak player, obvious to read.



Preflop I make the standard raise, and whe I hit the top pair with the broadway draw, I'm cbetting. At this point, I expect the opponent to have any broadway card, a worse ace.. I doubt he has a pocket pair, so not worried about a set. He calls.

Turn is a 2nd queen, which is not good. AQ now beats me, but it's pretty much the only hand that would benefit from the queen. So, another bet, and another call. So now I'm wondering what he has.... AK is nice, but right now I think I'm basically beating a draw and not much else. The club draw is a definite option, and he could be drawing to braodway with an A or a T too. I wouldn't put a flopped straight past him either.

River's a total blank. I don't wanna lead again and face a shove. Besides that, my stack size doesn't allow me to lead for anything less than all-in anyway. I'm not happy shoving here either. The alternative is checking, and hoping he either checks behind, or makes a raise I can call without stacking off. Judging on previous hands from this guy, a big river bet should be the nuts, while a weakish bet would signify a bluff. Or have I already invested too much of my stack (700 of 1820) to let this one go anyway?

Opinions?

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Sun Mar 04, 2012, 01:59 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,837
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Hi Ov3rsight!

Preflop, I would make the same std raise with AK. The two callers behind make this for a tougher hand, as I'm now playing it out of position.

The flop is a good and bad one for AK. Yes, I now have TPTK and a straight draw, but the board could easily have either opp with 2 pair, a straight, straight draw or flush draw. In this situation, I would lead here for between 2/3 and 3/4 pot, 3/4 being the size that was used in the hand. One opp mucks, which at least gets me to HU for the pot, but I'm still out of position.

The turn pairs the board. This now makes any of the 2-pair hands on the flop (except KJ) turn into a full house, that I can't beat regardless of the river. With this wet of a board, instead of making a value bet, I'm going to check here. There are too many combinations of cards in the opp's range that are ahead of me or have my AK crushed here, that I don't want to put more chips into the pot. There are some draws that I'm ahead of, but many more combinations that I'm behind. If the opp makes a sizable bet on the turn, I'm going to muck my AK.

On the river, with it being a blank, I'm going to check and call any smaller value bet from the opp, as my hand does have some showdown value, but I will not call a larger bet, as I'll be risking too much of my stack when I know that I can easily be beat.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Mar 04, 2012, 02:07 PM
(#3)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Howdy, hey can you elaborate on how you got this read on your opponent as we are only at level 2 and 3 have already busted! I'm not saying your read is wrong but it might help us better understand how we got here.

Okay the open is fine as we are OOP and the flop is just scarey. I dont mind a cbet but you told us he is a weak player so anything you bet he is calling if this has hit his range right. Why so big a cbet? If he is so weak let him chase. By keeping the pot small we can also get away from this very wet board when another Q hits the turn. You are inflating the pot by making your c bet so big.

A check call depending on the size of it helps you lose min chips if he does have Qx

 
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Sun Mar 04, 2012, 02:59 PM
(#4)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
Howdy, hey can you elaborate on how you got this read on your opponent as we are only at level 2 and 3 have already busted! I'm not saying your read is wrong but it might help us better understand how we got here.

Okay the open is fine as we are OOP and the flop is just scarey. I dont mind a cbet but you told us he is a weak player so anything you bet he is calling if this has hit his range right. Why so big a cbet? If he is so weak let him chase. By keeping the pot small we can also get away from this very wet board when another Q hits the turn. You are inflating the pot by making your c bet so big.

A check call depending on the size of it helps you lose min chips if he does have Qx

Hi Cowboy

The read was based on some hands I saw him play where he played a weak ace, and small suited cards. The kind you tend to fold early in a tourney. One of the guys that busted ran a big pair into a better pair on hand 1, so not much to learn from that.

The cbet was for value. I was kind of expecting him to call if he had hit the flop with a J or Q in his hand. The Q on the turn was just bad luck I think - any other non club card wouldn't scare me. I fel;t herev the odds he had the Q were rather slim, and didn't wanna give him a free card to draw to a flush if he was on the draw. But when he called the turn bet again I guess I chickened out of following it through on the river. The flush missed after all.
 

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