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Losing to a 0.6% chance hand....

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Losing to a 0.6% chance hand.... - Sun Mar 04, 2012, 07:40 AM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Yup, allin, flop the full house, opp has a 0.6 % chance to win the hand (AA or JJ on turn and river) and guess what....

 
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Sun Mar 04, 2012, 09:03 AM
(#2)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
hey ov3 unlucky after the flop,terrible suck out i agree,however if you put your chips in preflop no one can complain really.
Maybe if you had flat called his/her x3 preflop, then pushed the flop the opp may off folded if you were given that chance,
Or a fold with two limpers then a raise, live to fight another day.
I have noticed something about your play, your hand choices are normally quite good. You play posistion quite well,but still have tendencies for preflop pushes, I use to do this, and use to lose a lot.
do not take any of this as having ago at you as its me trying to help in my own mad little way.
I think to be honest as i needed to do and still do not understand,your +ev mindset needs a look at.
You are looking tilty as I know this game does to everyone,hope this helps you OV3sight,
just tell me to get lost if it helps, but with me being there I do sort of know what i am on about,may not explain some things well but I hope you get the idea of what i am on about.
 
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Sun Mar 04, 2012, 01:42 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
I think this is more of a bad beat post (wrong forum maybe ) but it's instructive none the less. You really didn't lose to a .6% chance hand... When the money went in you were a 63-37 underdog. As painfully ironic as the board ran out, ultimately it's simply just one of the 63%'s (one of the most painful for sure).

As for the play, the shove could be ok or not depending on the villain reads. If the guy is opening a really wide range then I think the shove is ok. Without reads, simply giving his position at the table and the stacks, I would pass the KT personally.


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Sun Mar 04, 2012, 01:46 PM
(#4)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Yah, I know preflop he had the best hand, but after a flop like that..... ouch
 
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Sun Mar 04, 2012, 08:21 PM
(#5)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deleted user View Post
You are shoving there with limp, a standard 3 x (weak since not increasing for the limper) and blinds to act with Kto not to mention button still to act and all who have you stacked. Pick another spot!?

Imo, this is not a good shove range given the action pre and to come after your shove.
Yes,short of a read as to the 3x raiser being loose with their opening range then this isn't a good spot for K10o. You have to go all the way to 40% on Pokerstove to be a dead flip with the K10 here,even as wide a 30% range you're a 47-53% dog.

And we don't have enough equity here to get a fold with our ship to most hands. We still have 16bb left here if we pass,so while we're not in great shape we're not on the critical list quite yet. Minus that read on the villain,this is a fold.

Holdem as to your post...flatting here would be terrible.Of the three options...ship,fold or call...a call here is the drop dead LAST thing we should be doing in this spot. In fact we should NEVER be flatting here. And if we did...why in the Hell would we ever want to do anything to push them off when we flop like this? This is extremely results oriented thinking on your part. This flop we are doing everything possible to induce them to get all their chips in the middle.

This is a case where we get a little lucky (not very,just a little) on the flop and then get straight destroyed on 4th and 5ht streets. Just focus on the fact that when ALL the decision making was done we DID end up putting our money in behind and learn from that. Because no matter what comes after it's out of our hands at that point.

Good luck,better decisions.
 
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Sun Mar 04, 2012, 11:32 PM
(#6)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
No problem jig. And you hit on 2 points here...

1. 16bb IS a decent re-steal stack. Minus that specific read tho (I would even want to have the extra read of someone who is playing a loose range AND folds a lot to aggressive re-raises pre-flop...) this just is NOT a good re-steal spot,IMO.

2. The crux of the biscuit you said in your post..."Hold your chips and agress with them". Had this pot come to us unopened or with just the original limper,THEN this becomes a much better spot to get our chips in as we still have enough fold equity against all the stacks here to tighten up their ranges. But we still aren't at a MUST shove spot yet with 16bb. So reads on the stacks to follow will be important.
 

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