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Thin Value

Thin Value - Sun Mar 04, 2012, 02:25 PM
BandShooter's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 111
Ok, So I'm pretty confident with my play up to the River here, but I'm not sure about the bet sizing on the River. Too small? I'm calling it thin value because of all the draws that could have made it, plus the sets that could have been there. Anyway, would love to hear thoughts.

BTW; The villan here had a VP of around 45% here, and we're early in the Sunday Storm:

Sun Mar 04, 2012, 02:31 PM
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I don't think it's thin exactly (thin usually means that it's almost EV neutral; barely +EV). I think it's a pretty easy shove actually. Maybe upsize your bets a little on the flop and turn to make a shove more likely to be called, but I think a shove would be fine.
Sun Mar 04, 2012, 02:52 PM
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
The only thing you really have to be worried about is some kind of 3 in their hand. So what would he be calling the preflop bet with - A3 suited or something? It's either that or 3,4 suited. So I don't put him on a 3 here, in which case I'm good. Pocket aces he would probably not have limped.

On the flop, the "he doesn't have a 3" stands stronger for me - would he really flatcall a 3 there?
So what does he have? There's no draws out there, nothing we can really be afraid of. So I'm kinda of putting him on a pocket pair here.

As such, the 4-card straight on the river doesn't bother me at all. If I'm beat, I was beat on the flop, and if not, I'm usually good here.

I don't like the river bet though. What was it's purpose? You're giving the opponent a great opportunity to bluff - you're betting 12% of the pot here - what do you do if he shoves on you? Would you fold the kings if he did? If you're saying "No, I would call him down" you should shove yourself.

Of course there's a chance he won't call the shove and you made an extra 640 here, but he could be holding a hand good enough to call the shove in which case you just lost yourself another 2884 chips.

PS: what did he have anyway?
Sun Mar 04, 2012, 03:11 PM
BandShooter's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 111
Actually I'm worried about the 3, the 4, 5's 6's and 7's here. And to answer all of your questions, Yes he would. This guy was all over the map with his cards (Including a 5x raise from EP with 57o!) And while my table image has been tight up to this point, He's also seen me bet almost every street I've played, so he could be slow playing me. THAT was my main concern and why I didn't shove.
In most other cases the shove would have been on my mind, but not here. The guy was just way too lose (That affore mentioned 57o, played out almost the same way, without me in the hand, and he hit the straight.....)

I do appreciate the thoughts though....maybe I was thinking this was a lot thinner than it actually was. I tend to do that with KKs on a drawing board.....
Sun Mar 04, 2012, 05:45 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
Hi Band,

This is not a drawing board though, the flop is very dry with the only legit draws being 64 and 42 and these are somewhat unlikely and a very small part of a loose players total range.

I think the flop and turn bets are fine, but would also be betting more on the river for value. I think the smaller bet is good vs. a big bluffer who might be induced to make a move. But generally this seems like the type of opponent who will pay you off light an awful lot, so I would be going for more value with my kings up here.

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Sun Mar 04, 2012, 06:15 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,801
Hi BandShooter!

One thing that would make it easier for a player to get it all in by the river.... is to raise more preflop. I try to use 3BB + 1BB for each limper, so I would have raised to 3BB+3BB (2 limps and a complete) or to 480. Making a std raise makes it much easier to get the opps chips in by the river.

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


6 Time Bracelet Winner


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