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$1.50 Fifty50 AKoff bubble Big Stacks blind battle

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$1.50 Fifty50 AKoff bubble Big Stacks blind battle - Sun Mar 04, 2012, 04:29 PM
(#1)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
At this point I can probably wait for the very short stack to bust and pick up another reasonable cash, but I make a standard raise with AKo which might look like a steal to the BB, who reraises.

Can I shove?

Should I just let it go and wait for a better spot?

Can I call to see a flop?

I am 3rd highest stack but my opponent in the BB has the bigger stack - I can cripple them but they can bust me.

There is a lot of extra prize value in winning this pot.

Edit:
I raise 2.5x to 250 and opponent reraises to 500 - does not seem to show properly on replayer.



Any thoughts welcome.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Sun Mar 04, 2012 at 04:35 PM.. Reason: Replayer not showing bets
 
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Mon Mar 05, 2012, 01:03 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi Ed.

Normally, in the "old" double up games, I'd say this was a pretty clear fold.

1) You cannot bust the opp and get ITM.
2) The opp CAN bust you and prevent you from getting ITM.
3) The shortie is on the verge of busting to get you ITM whether you win this hand or not.

Those games were ones wheres the top half of the field made the same amount, regardless of chip stacks though. The newer 50/50 games pay a "bonus" based on chip stacks, and that really has to effect your decision process in my opinion.

As you do not put out info on what the BB's tendencies are, it is pretty hard to calculate your equity in selecting different actions. Questions we'd really need to know are:

- How tightly will he raise here? (you only say he might think you are trying a blind steal)
- How LOOSELY might he call a Jam or a re-raise here?

Without this info we really cannot say though...

- you can make a case for immediately jamming, as the opponent may call on something like AJ/AQ (if he thinks you are over valuing a small/medium pp), depending on info you have not provided. You are also at last a race if he calls, and assured of seeing all 5 cards, unless he holds AA/KK.

- you can make a case for immediately FOLDING, as your stack size is decent in terms of pay out right now, and the shortie is in imminent danger of busting.

- you can make a case for calling, and playing a "fit or fold" game because your hand may flop quite well, and by pot controlling you are un-likely to get all in before the river. The chips you could win will add nicely to your profit, and as long as your total investment doesn't exceed about 2150 or so, you are un-likely to fail to get to the cash.

About the only poor option for you really would be to 4bet less than your entire stack (around 1100 to 1250 to go), with the intent of folding to a 5bet.

So I guess in this case Ed, the real answer I'd have to give is..."it depends", and what it depends on is a bit more info about your opponent.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:24 AM..
 
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Mon Mar 05, 2012, 01:34 AM
(#3)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Hi Ed.

Normally, in the "old" double up games, I'd say this was a pretty clear fold.

1) You cannot bust the opp and get ITM.
2) The opp CAN bust you and prevent you from getting ITM.
3) The shortie is on the verge of busting to get you ITM whether you win this hand or not.

Those games were ones wheres the top half of the field made the same amount, regardless of chip stacks though. The newer 50/50 games pay a "bonus" based on chip stacks, and that really has to effect your decision process in my opinion.

As you do not put out info on what the BB's tendencies are, it is pretty hard to calculate your equity in selecting different actions. Questions we'd really need to know are:

- How tightly will he raise here? (you only say he might think you are trying a blind steal)
- How LOOSELY might he call a Jam or a re-raise here?

Without this info we really cannot say though...

- you can make a case for immediately jamming, as the opponent may call on something like AJ/AQ (if he thinks you are over valuing a small/medium pp), depending on info you have not provided.

- you can make a case for immediately FOLDING, as your stack size is decent in terms of pay out right now, and the shortie is in imminent danger of busting.

- you can make a case for calling, and playing a "fit or fold" game because your hand may flop quite well, and by pot controlling you are un-likely to get all in before the river. The chips you could win will add nicely to your profit, and as long as your total investment doesn't exceed about 2150 or so, you are un-likely to fail to get to the cash.

About the only poor option for you really would be to 4bet less than your entire stack (around 1100 to 1250 to go), with the intent of folding to a 5bet.

So I guess in this case Ed, the real answer I'd have to give is..."it depends".

Hope it helps.

-JDean
Thanks -

I don't have many hands on the opponent, as this is the first and only table I have been at with them.

With such a small sample of hands it is hard to rely on just stats, but lets say I think they are a fairly standard TAG. They might reraise me here a bit wider than normal, especially if they have noted my propensity to make steal attempts at this stage when I have enough chips as I do here, so they might reraise 10-15%.

I also have to give them credit from what I have seen that they will not call off light if I shove - maybe 3%-5% range. If they called with, say 99+,AQs I am a 60/40 dog.

I haven't invested too much in the pot yet but a fold seems a bit weak. I am trying to get more value out of these when I get into a strong position by increasing my chip stack playing aggressively at the bubble and this seems like a reasonable spot to shove - but perhaps I am overvaluing my fold equity AND my pot equity?

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Mon Mar 05, 2012, 01:53 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EdinFreeMan View Post
Thanks -

I don't have many hands on the opponent, as this is the first and only table I have been at with them.

With such a small sample of hands it is hard to rely on just stats, but lets say I think they are a fairly standard TAG. They might reraise me here a bit wider than normal, especially if they have noted my propensity to make steal attempts at this stage when I have enough chips as I do here, so they might reraise 10-15%.

I also have to give them credit from what I have seen that they will not call off light if I shove - maybe 3%-5% range. If they called with, say 99+,AQs I am a 60/40 dog.

I haven't invested too much in the pot yet but a fold seems a bit weak. I am trying to get more value out of these when I get into a strong position by increasing my chip stack playing aggressively at the bubble and this seems like a reasonable spot to shove - but perhaps I am overvaluing my fold equity AND my pot equity?

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
Hi again Ed...

If you credit him with a pretty tight call range here, and a pretty tight raise range, then a Jam does become less attractive. Sure, you are folding out a good bit of his range with a jam, and winning his small 3bet will add a decent bit to your pay day, but if you get called after jamming, you are in a lot bigger trouble. So I'd not really love a Jam in this spot.

That leaves a flat or a fold as your options really...

A flat here sets up a low SPR, and that means you are probably going to want to "go" on any top/top hit you'd make. If you feel that you are un-willing for any reason to stand on a top/top hand if you hit, then just let it go now and keep the chips you have.

I'd consider checking the flop if I did hit, and C/R'ing all in if the opp bets.

I say this simply because a C-bet in a tight playing structure like this is quite likely, so checking with the intent to induce a bet THEN moving in gets you a bit more value. Obviously though, if the board has some threats (say 2 of a suit), an immediate bet with intent to call a raise all in might be fine too.

Obviously, a check/fold on a miss is fine in this type of event.

The key for me is that you CAN flat his raise with a decent hand (AKo certainly qualifies as decent), as losing that small extra amount will not really reduce your chances of making it ITM, and taking down the little extra you might make can add to your overall profit quite nicely.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Mar 05, 2012, 02:05 AM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Ed, I decided to do an equity break down on the shove option for you...

For Ease, let's say the opp will 3bet 10% of the time, and call a 4bet 5%.

That means HALF the time we jam, he calls.

50 time we jam, and he folds = 810 x 50 = +40500
50 times we jam, and he calls on 88+, AQs+, AKo (4.7% range)
We win .433 times 50 = 21.65 times
We lose .567 times 50 = 28.35 times

Winning = +3250 x 21.65 = +70362.5
Losing = -3190 x 28.35 = -90436.5

40500 + 70362.5 = +110862.5
+110862.5
- 90436.5
----------------
+20426 / 100 = +204.26 +CeV

BUT...

I did not think a shove here with the info you gave was -cEV; AKo is simply too strong versus the range you gave (too many call hands might be races for you) to see it as -CeV. The real factor is your TeV though...

50% of the time we win immediately.
.567 x 50 we jam and LOSE though.
This means we will likely loss about 28.35% of the time, and be OUT of the event short of ITM.

With such a short stack, I think we can conservatively estimate our chance of making it ITM on our stack at currently 90% to 95%+. Do we want to TRADE that 95% chance of making it ITM for a 72% chance for a somewhat minor positive equity chip up of 204 chips?

I dont like it, which is why I said I'd not love an immediate jam.

If this were a standard MTT, and a min cash was a relatively small portion of the prize pool, I will tend to do it all day long; but here, where a min cash is a big part of the prize pool...uh uh.

-JDean

P.S.

I had to look up the value of a stack in these events, and the ITM amount to calc your TeV in terms of $eV. The ITM for these events = $1.35 + 4c per 100 chips. I factored in the $ value of each move (an all in and a fold), and I get this:

Jamming and seeing him fold adds +32.4c x 50 = $16.20
Jamming and seeing him call and winning adds $1.30 x 21.65 = $28.145
Jamming and seeing him call and losing costs you $2.40 x 28.35 = -$68.04 (this is a reflection of the lose of your ITM amount plus the chip value you currently have)

Total = -$23.695 / 100 = -23.695c for a jam

note:

Folding = 95% chance of making it ITM though (this is an assumption).
ITM = $1.35 + 4c per 100 chips.

If we assume we make it 100% of the time on the stack size we have if we fold, our "win" for the event = $1.35 + $1.17.6 = $2.526

This means we can expect to win around $2.40 from folding, and seeing the shortie bust (about 95% of our total win now).

That means given the data you supply, a jam is pretty clearly going to cost you money over a fold.

A CALL is a "middle way", and much harder to assess.

Suffice it to say, it is a possibility, as it does not prevent you from making the cash if you fold (like a jam would if you get called and lose), and it does allow you to possibly flop big and still win the max. Realistically though, a flat if not AS L:IKELY to win you the max, but it is not as likely to result in a huge increase in your bust short of the ITM...and busting short of ITM with such a short stack at your table is quite a "disaster" really.

I think if the opp is not a very aggro type (meaning we are unlikely to be put to the "test" for our stack on a 1 paid flop for us), a call is pretty attractive. If the opp will test us strongly even if we flop top/top, then a flat is much less attractive than a fold to preserve our current stack.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:01 AM..
 
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Mon Mar 05, 2012, 02:10 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi Ed!

If I was in this spot (played 275 of these before black friday), I'm going to call and see if I hit an A or K on the flop. This way, I can have a shot to win the over 1k chips in the pot (40+cents cash value at end of tourney) and also if I miss the flop and the opp makes a larger bet, I can get out of the hand and still have 3rd chip position.

Since I'm basically guaranteed to get ITM unless I get a bad beat with a made hand, I'm going to still try to get the 1k chips in the middle if I hit the flop, but to be more conservative and protect the $$ value of the chips that I have and to be sure that I cash.

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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