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1 in 3 flops or not?

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1 in 3 flops or not? - Thu Mar 08, 2012, 05:46 AM
(#1)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Ok after sitting there 2 or 3 times now on the cash tables 1c 2c blinds,it is starting to get real thrustrating, my understanding is any 2 cards should hit 1 in 3 flops?.
Have i got this wrong? as i have probably sat there for about 6 hours in the few times i have ventured on to the cash tables and well, even what i have folded or played, completely missing and not even striking bottom pair for example.
Can one of you explain this to me please is my understanding wrong about 1 in 3?.
 
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Thu Mar 08, 2012, 07:45 AM
(#2)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Hi holdemace!

The chance of flopping a pair is about 27%, or 2.7:1, if you're holding two unpaired cards and we don't count a paired board as a pair. This means that if you're holding AK, you will hit either an ace or a king about one in four times. What we mean by "you will hit one out of three flops" includes draws or other textures that give us equity in the pot compared to when we whiff completely.

The reason you feel this way is due to a number or reasons. I think you're investing waaaaaaay too much emotion into your decisions, causing you to put more weight and attention on the times you miss while those flops you actually hit fall into oblivion. We have all been there, but sooner or later you're going to realize that the numbers don't lie, but it's your perception that's decieving you.

....
 
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Thu Mar 08, 2012, 08:26 AM
(#3)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feskprins View Post
We have all been there, but sooner or later you're going to realize that the numbers don't lie, but it's your perception that's decieving you.


This is why I'm always telling players to start recording what they think is an "always." I've heard the big hand will "always" lose to a lower hand. Big pockets "always" lose to trash. The river "always" kills my hand. And now, my hole cards "always" misses.

Friend, when you begin thinking "always," take pencil to paper and start recording the facts. Do it for at least a hundred games or five hundred hands. I know the results will surprise. Big hands do win a majority of the time. Big pockets will most often defeat trash. The hand usually is lost before the river, but when the river is the deciding card, it saves as many times as it kills.

My guess is that when you do hit a pair, you're folding since the board is a killer. For example, you have two black cards, ace and king. The board pairs one of your cards, but is all hearts or diamonds. At this point the betting gets wild. I know I'm folding to the probable flush.
 
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Thu Mar 08, 2012, 10:15 AM
(#4)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Thanks for the input guys I know its only a none trivial question but I want to know everything,
and thanks cairn note book ready to jot down a few and have a look.
 
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Thu Mar 08, 2012, 11:35 AM
(#5)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Remember hitting the flop does not mean having the best hand.


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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