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5nl 6max AQ- should i fold river?

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5nl 6max AQ- should i fold river? - Thu Mar 08, 2012, 06:01 AM
(#1)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner





Hi again,

I think i played this hand pretty standard up to river, the opponent who opened with the raise had stats of vpip:30 pfr:29 over 84 hands so i can assume my AQ is worth a call on the button and i do so.
i flop top pair almost top kicker,i call his leads on the flop and turn.
Then on the river i hit my 2 pair and he now checks i see that as weakness and decided to bet for value against the possible worse aces he can have.
He then check raises me,i know almost all the time this means a very strong hand in micros but i still couldnt bring myself to fold which in hindsight i probably should have done
Just wanted to get peoples thoughts on my play
thanks guys
 
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Thu Mar 08, 2012, 06:20 AM
(#2)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
my first thought was that the guy had TT perhaps QQ, he definately wouldnt shove there with AK AJ.

First of all, don't look too much to your holdem manager thing. but more to what a player does in terms of thinking. According to you a loose aggresive player opens and he gets a caller. You think your AQo is ahead:

Why don't you 3-bet that raise to like ~70 - 90 cents?
If you get raised you are sure you are behind and can fold the hand.

You didn't so now the flop comes and it is a very bad flop for you:
and A with a T,

the only hand you beat is AJ and A9 or lower.
A call is good play, perhaps he has KK / QQ / JJ.

Then a 9 hits, and he keeps betting big. Now it all comes down to seizing up your opponent, would he be a retard and overplay Kings Queens or Jacks? or overvalue any A? or overplay a straigth draw like KJ?

if yes, I'd call if no, I'd fold right there.

You elect to call, and you hit two pair. which is good, now you beat AT and A9, but you dont beat AA and QQ and TT.

he checks and you bet, you should ask yourself this question before betting: with what hands will he call?

like I said the only hands you beat are AT and A9 which MIGHT would call.

in my opinion terrible bet, and to the allin you had to call seen pot odds and im almost certain he had you beat with trips.

The real mistake was preflop : AQo doesn't play well versus multiway pot, and you still had the blinds to act!!!

good luck
 
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Thu Mar 08, 2012, 11:22 AM
(#3)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Sometimes i just think to myself, no blinds to defend, pot all ready multiway, people still to act,
easier to just fold, no pressure to play this , no blind increase , do i need bother I will have aces or something soon in a better spot.

hope this helps and great analysis from sj couldnt really add to that.
 
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Thu Mar 08, 2012, 12:56 PM
(#4)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I think you are beat a lot of the time - not exactly sure how often - but without more reads on the player than just the stats, I think I would have to call, as once you bet the river and get reraised the rest of your stack is mince.

You were betting for value presumably, with two big pairs - if you are beat by sets (TT/QQ/AA) or a straight I think you just have to say well played. Opponents actions fit something like TT better than QQ/AA or straights and you have blockers to AA/QQ.

I think I am committed on the river bet - I don't think I am ever not betting the 2 pair hit on the river when they check, or folding to the reraise - so for me it is showdown and note-taking time.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 12:58 PM..
 
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Thu Mar 08, 2012, 02:08 PM
(#5)
folkstix's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 55
I agree you should have raised it up pre. As played, I'm checking the river, personally. Can't see any worse hand calling you there.
 
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Thu Mar 08, 2012, 03:27 PM
(#6)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Well it doesn't seem likely that a villain would bet so high two streets with just a gutshot and two callers, so I guess the villain stopped raising on the river because there was a possible straight draw on the board?

But then why did he not bet the river if he was going to check-raise it all-in to a river bet from somebody else?

I'm glad I waited over a year to really give cash games a go, because it seems like maybe there's a tendency for people to get a little more ... 'tilty' when the chips are actual money? (Myself included )

But it makes it harder to read hands, that's for sure ...

I'm always a little apprehensive when there's an A and another broadway card on the board, because it hits so much of peoples' range so hard. Like they could easily have AT, TT, AK, AA but also AJ or even AQ as well. And then it's hard when you make the TPTK that you were looking for on the flop, because by the turn after two streets of strong betting it's like ... what now? AQ is only ahead of AJ. And then you make 2pr on the river, and your prospects improve, but still ... there's the question of where AQ stands - value bet and get paid off by AK, AJ, AT? or pot control in case they have TT or AA?

My 'report card' on PTR is positively horrific ... it says I'm too loose and go down to showdown too often, but sometimes I call even though I have that awful feeling like I'm behind ...

Hope the villain had AK!
 
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Thu Mar 08, 2012, 03:43 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Nashy1996.

I call all day long on the river.

The SPR you set up going to the flop with your call was just over 7. That means the moeny is a bit too deep to commit to a top pair/strong kicker hand ONLY, but you made top 2 pair on the river. That is the kind of hand I'd stack off with here...

Because the money was a bit too deep to love going on your 1 pair hit, I do like the flats on the flop and turn. A 30% vpip, even one that will adjust for position, will tend to contain a decent amount of hands that are behind your AQ on the flop, but BECAUSE of this guy's aggression pattern and the depth of moeny, I doubt I'd want to raise my 1 pair hand to build a larger (and more committing for me) pot. Same goes for the turn...

I think the 3rd straight card would cause me to check behind if I still held just top pair/Q kicker on the river, but when I hold top 2 and can now BEAT the Rag As he may have spiked 2 pair with, I think a V-Bet is fine with your hand. The thing is though, if you MAKE that V-Bet, you leave so little in his stack that you are "forced" to call.

Pot = $8.87 after your V-Bet and his jam. You must call only $1.50, getting a price of 5.9 to 1. This means you only have to be 'right" about 14.5% of the time to break even on a call of his C/R jam.

I have no problem with that when holding top 2 really, since it is really possible he holds a hand like AT/A9, and his aggro nature may lead him to think you might v-bet just an A (like AK) on the river. i'm certianly not thinking I am ALWAYS ahead when he C/R's me all in for an amount that I am all but forced to call, but with only having to be right a bit under 15% of the time, I think I should have been sweating the possibility of a set earlier.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 03:55 PM..
 
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Fri Mar 09, 2012, 06:02 AM
(#8)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Thanks guys i appreciate all those comments
 

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