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Hero (99 - UTG) loss - Hand Import - 03-08-2012

Thu Mar 08, 2012, 12:15 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
Hi I'mJigJig!

The link for the first one doesn't work. Please get a working link or the HH so that we can take a look at it.

John (JWK24)


6 Time Bracelet Winner

Thu Mar 08, 2012, 02:24 PM
folkstix's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 55
I would have laid down the 99 UTG as well. Like you said, wait for a better spot. The 44 is what it is other than I would have gone 3x the BB personally. He woke up with pocket 77. What can you do.
Thu Mar 08, 2012, 04:00 PM
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
Hi i'mJigJig.

Question 1:

You are in a 25BB (give or take) situation, so ANY hand you enter on probably should be played aggressively. 99 oop is not a hand that will flop really well a lot of the time, so unless your table is playing such that a C-Bet will get you a take down immediately, or unless one of the short stacks will jam wide over a raise and that will be enough to get you HU versus the all in, I see nothing wrong with mucking 99 UTG.

Question 2:

44 versus a BB that will get all in wide (or fold) is not a terrbile play, but it is one that you will tend to be in a race at best if/when the villain does shove; at least most of the time. 44 is such a low pocket pair, even hands that he has no real HOPE of being ahead (like T5 or 86) will be races.

The thing I'd ask though is: What are the villains BEHIND you (the 11k and 5k stacks) likely to think about your min raise? Are they aggro enough to squeeze you out there?

The greater the chance a villain acting behind you may try to squeeze you, the less I like making a min raise with 44 to get it all in vs just the BB. If they are playing pretty tightly in a bubble situation though, I really do not see a ton of problems with making the min raise on a 25BB stack with the intent of calling the BB if he shoves, and folding to a raise (or all in) from any other player.

When I get down below about 30BB in my stack, I prefer to change my standard entry raise to something a bit smaller anyway, usually around 2.2 to 2.5BB to go. This prevents a raise/fold with my more marginal holdings from being extremely expensive. I would not move off a standard raise here very often though to make an even LESSER raise in this spot, but if a min raise has become standard for you throughout your raise range, then I really do not see anything wrong with making that play here.

As for your SPECIFIC Question: "Is [the 44 play] high variance"

I do not see that as really being a valid question in and of itself.

If you consider a race situation if/when the BB gets all in "high variance", then yes, it quite likely is a "high variance" play.

Examining your play in terms of 'variance" is using a 'strategic" thought in a 'tactical" situation.

It would be more proper to look at the EQUITY of making this specific play, in this specific situation, and in my opinion there is pretty reasonable equity both for your event "life" and for the sorts of hands the BB might shove over your min raise to make the play worthwhile (as long as opportunistic villains behind you will not liekly squeeze you out).

Hope it helps.


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Last edited by JDean; Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 04:30 PM..
Thu Mar 08, 2012, 06:17 PM
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
Originally Posted by Deleted user View Post
I also mention in terms of variance because i want to know my edge with this hand in a spot like this. I mean if it would be generally low variance because a) villains fold a lot, then i can open my range to any two. should it be a high variance spot, i dont only need to consider my range for bet calling the shove should villain shove but need to conciser my tourney life, in similar spots now/in the futer and in other games i play. So i don't know how +ev would tell me that. I will not always be in such a good chip position so that will always be an unknown and my equity will change accordingly. Looking at this in terms of variance, well maybe you didn't have enough info or it is irrelevant but i like to think that it isn't. .
Hi again!

I cannot asses the variance of a play without more info than you gave on opponents when I first answered.

The difference between strategy and tactics is that strategy considers long range possibilities within a decision at the moment, and not just the immediate decision itself.

An example of a "high variance" strategy would be to Raise 44 here with the intent of calling to set mine if you are re-raised less than all in. You will tend to lose a somewhat SMALL amount quite often by doing this, but you could win a large amountsome of the time. (I do not think the money was deep enough, nor the risk worthwhile to enact this type of play here).

Another example of a high variance strategy would be to min raise 44 here KNOWING an opponent behind is super aggro and will likely ATTACK that min raise quite light, but also knowing that you will FOLD to his raise with a marginal hand like 44. You'd be raising to induce a bluff in hopes that LATER you can raise the same way with a hand that you can get more value from if/when he attacks your small raise again. (again, I do not think the money was deep enough, nor the risk worthwhile to enact this type of play here).

Please note that in each instance, the "variance" of a decision is predicated upon LATER ACTIONS which may, or may not, occur.

No matter what though, as soon as you min raise you can NEVER FOLD to a jam by the BB. Therefore "variance" of whether or not you should make this raise with 44 is a function of the EQUITY 44 has against his percevied shove range. See?

25BB in the late stages of a MTT/SNG is not the situation (in my opinion) that you want to be burning chips to "set up" plays for later effect. There are few other stacks which can give you a return on those sorts of plays any where near commensurate to the loss your stack may suffer from trying them. Making plays with the mind set that you ARE trying to set up later plays in this spot will result in you leaking off chips you can ill afford to lose. If you were on an average of 50 or 75BB deep in the late stages, there could be effacacy in using your current play decisions to set up later plays, as that deep you may derive a lot LARGER pay off for the risk of stack depletion you are taking.

As such, the "variance" of this play decision should not enter into your mind much at all once you make it, and the "threat stacks" fold...

Instead you should focus on the EQUITY of the immediate play decision...

Whether or not you get yourself into a situation where he MAY jam a small amount over a raise by you could be "high variance" only if his call or jam range over a raise is extremely TIGHT. In that case a min raise is pretty committing for you, and you are likely to be seriously behind if he does wake up with enough of a hand to jam. Still, if he is so tight he will fold a 3BB stack to a min raise without a hand that 44 will play reasonably well against (given the size pot created), then raising 44 is FINE; he will fold so often that it is worth the shot to pick up the blinds from him if all other opponents are un-likely to paly without decently strong hands as well.

If he is a loose player, or even a player of reasonable tight-ness, 44 has plenty of equity to play agaisnt him, and if he is the sort who will NEVER fold there (as he probably should be, given he has 3BB, with 1/3rd of his stack in the pot from his blind), then 44 is certainly a decent enough hand to raise when a loss represents only about 12% of your stack.

But in the info given at the start, you had already shoved., and you do not really give the info required to answer your question as to whether this is high variance or not. Once the shove is made, you ARE calling the BB's jam (I hope) no matter what...


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Last edited by JDean; Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 06:21 PM..
Fri Mar 09, 2012, 03:04 PM
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
Originally Posted by Deleted user View Post
Sure let me put it like this which you have in part answered.
Short stack is in a no decision mode ~ he players any two in this hand.
Deep stack is uber tight, respects my game, folding to c-bets but will likely play for stacks as
soon as he picks up a hand/piece of any flop he sees. He may raise such hands pre-flop where
he sees can take my chips.

1) What is the lowest cards in my bet or call range for a flip in this give situation if:
a) All players actions are the same, only i bet short stack all-in.
b) All players actions are the same, only i go all-in?
c) All players actions are the same, only i bet 2.5x and put to call by a action all-in by V2.
d) All players actions are the same, but i must choose my range according to unpredictability
from the deep stack so don't want to bet fold. (in this instance my bet call range.)
2) How when we look at the above scenarios to we look at variance v's ev. (copy n past the dave's
answer if needed)

3) Looking at an icm caculation~ is:
a) Which order would i choose 1a,b,c,d?
b) How does my icm for the win change to bet 2.5 and fold.
c) Can we conceive in an icm calculation to bet - call -all in pre-flop from the big stack with
set range given in answer to 1c/d

4) Are my questions reasonable. *(feel free to make this the first and only answer in the case
they are not.)

Hi i'mJigJig...

I could simply put an answer in to #4 and be done with this, but I do not think that does you any service. But I DO think you are WAY over complicating your situation. It is really a simple matter of this:

1) Either you have +eV if the BB calls or you do not have +eV if the BB calls.


2) Either you are betting in a manner to isolate yourself on the BB, and thus you are "bluffing" a lesser holding to get the 11k and 5k stack to fold, or you hold a hand which has value if either of the medium stacks calls.


44/K9o/QTs are about the BOTTOM END of a range you can take against a 100% random caller, and find yourself with around 50% equity at least half the time. This is pretty much the minimum you'd want to raise the BB at all, as raising lighter than this will tend to commit you when he does put the remainder of his stack in...and 50% of the time the BB will have a hand in the top 50% of all holdings.

Raising this range would be considered "higher variance" simply because you WILL get called or 3bet by one of the medium stacks at least some of the time (even if they will only stay with AA, sometimes they will have that hand) and you will have to fold this range to a raise given the info provided. But as long as you "know" what you intend to do based on how the medium stacks act, raising this quite wide range is fine because it is quite likely both medium stacks WILL fold a huge percentage of the time.

This is an example of an "isolation raise range", that you are essentially raising for VALUE versus the BB's call/jam range, but betting as a BLUFF versus the 3bet/call range of the 2 medium stacks.

It would take roughly KK+ to call a jam by the 11k stack (assuming he will raise a 4.7% AQ+/TT+ range), and if we assume a 9.8% 3bet/jam range for the 5k stack (AJ+/44+/KQ, pretty wide really) we'd need AQs to have 49.6% equity, and 99 to have 52.4% equity (88 = 49.2%).

This is a spot where the 11k stack may have little in the way of a call range given the stack sizes. He really should be looking to either raise you by going all in on his 18BB stack, or FOLDING to any raise by you. This is true because:

- any raise by you equates to a 20%+ chip up for him, and just taking down a pot immediately represents a good addition.

- any 3bet by the 11k stack will commit him for the rest of his stack anyway.

- any call of a C-Bet by you will be pretty committing for him as well.

...and the 5k stack would pretty much be spewing chips to have ANY call range at all.

The above ranges reflect CHIP EQUITY ONLY though, and as you are essentially risking 1/3rd your chips if the 5k stack jams, you probably want to be pretty sure of MORE than "break even" equity to call. I'd roughly put a call range for an all in by the 5k stack at QQ+/AK myself. KK/AA are about the only hands I'd be willing to call off vs the 11k stack, given the info you provided.

If you do NOT have a "value hand" and one of the medium stacks 3bets you, it is an instant fold in my opinion.

If you want to move all in immediately, I'd not really like that without one of your value hands given the info you provide on the medium stacks. All signs point to a lesser raise working as well as an all in to achieve your goal, only with much less risk.

I hope that hit all your questions...


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Last edited by JDean; Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 03:07 PM..

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