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NL2 pocket 55s vs 3bet

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NL2 pocket 55s vs 3bet - Fri Mar 09, 2012, 02:44 PM
(#1)
puchium's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 14
I call here to try and hit a set but after the 3bet and the call I really don't know... I know the implied odds concept but I really don't know how to make that calc. both players are going on TAG so far so I could get their entire stack if I hit my set b/c they probably got very strong hands.. raise from UTG+1, crazy 3bet from BTN and a call... should i call here after the 3bet and the call to try and hit my set?

PokerStars Hand #76874634263: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02 USD) - 2012/03/08 19:30:03 ET
Table 'Haworth IV' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Moyatovic ($0.38 in chips)
Seat 2: kes777 ($1.30 in chips)
Seat 3: whoarrrryou ($2.35 in chips) 9/9 on 33 hands
Seat 4: SargeMercy ($2.33 in chips)
Seat 5: Gittes999 ($2 in chips)
Seat 6: puchium ($4.53 in chips)
Seat 7: deviltry ($4.22 in chips)
Seat 8: [Ru]KeksiK ($1.94 in chips) 10/10 on 20 hands
Seat 9: dondamiann ($2 in chips)
dondamiann: posts small blind $0.01
Moyatovic: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to puchium [5d 5s]
kes777: folds
whoarrrryou: raises $0.04 to $0.06
SargeMercy: folds
Gittes999 is connected
Gittes999: folds
puchium: calls $0.06
deviltry: folds
[Ru]KeksiK: raises $0.18 to $0.24
dondamiann: folds
Moyatovic: folds
whoarrrryou: calls $0.18
puchium: folds
*** FLOP *** [Jc 7s 4d]
whoarrrryou: checks
[Ru]KeksiK: bets $0.44
whoarrrryou: folds
Uncalled bet ($0.44) returned to [Ru]KeksiK
[Ru]KeksiK collected $0.55 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $0.57 | Rake $0.02
Board [Jc 7s 4d]
Seat 1: Moyatovic (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: kes777 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: whoarrrryou folded on the Flop
Seat 4: SargeMercy folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Gittes999 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: puchium folded before Flop
Seat 7: deviltry folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: [Ru]KeksiK (button) collected ($0.55)
Seat 9: dondamiann (small blind) folded before Flop
 
Old
Default
Fri Mar 09, 2012, 03:10 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Puchium.

The situation you are facing really is pretty typical, and looking at your equity from implied odds can be more complex, but let me try to simplify it by looking at your hand here...

Implied odds are a calculation of your total "risk" versus the total "reward" you may derive from that risk.

With a set mining hand playing versus tight ranges, chances are good you will have to look on your hand as "no set/no bet" on the flop. This means your total investment is pretty easy to calculate: it is the amount you put into the pot pre flop, whether that amount is 6c or 24c.

But while you know exactly how much you are willing to commit to the pot, you can only guess about how much your opponents may be willing to commit on certain hand types. Since you are not getting correct pot odds to set mine versus even the first raiser, you will be required to "guess" if he will pay you off to the tune of 8.5+ to 1 for your 6c investment (51c total), and if either of them would pay off a total of $2.04 to call 24c total.

This means you must look at a few factors:

- Opponent aggression on the flop (the more often they will bet or raise whether they hit or not, the more you might extract with a set)

- Opponent calling tendencies (the more often they will call on over cards and/or weak draws, the more you can like extract with a set)

- The pre flop pot size (this effects the strength of hand an opponent might need to stack off entirely; the larger the pre flop pot is in relation to the smallest stack, the more likely an opponent might be to call off on something liek top/top or an over pair)

The depth of money created in a HU situation between the initial raiser and yourself would not favor playing 1 pair hands extremely "fast". Given that the opponent has a 9/9 stat line which is really a pretty tight/aggressive profile, I think you can probably expect him to get at least CLOSE 51c in for you at least. That makes a call to set mine ok, although if whoarrryou is the type to play with an awareness of stack to pot ratioes (meaning he can FOLD top/top hands and even over pairs on some boards on this depth of money), it may be harder to get the full pay off you need.

When [Ru]KeksiK 3bets over your call, the pot moves up to 57c, and when that is added to the $1.70 remaining in the 3bettors stack, you are presented with a possible $2.27 pay off for a continued set mine for 24c total. This gives you about 9.45 to 1 on a call here, which is still a decent price.

You see Puchium, when [Ru]KeksiK 3bets, he creates a SPR of only about 3 if you call, and this makes it a lot more likely at least 1 of the opponents WILL stack off with a single pair (like top/top or an over pair), without a ton of extra "risk" that any set you flop will not be good.

This means your considerations change a bit...

1) You MUST be "closing the betting".

Not being able to close the betting with a call of the 3bet means you cannot "know" your cost to potentially set mine.

In this situation you are closing the betting if you elect to flat the 24c 3bet and continue your set mine.

This is a CRITICAL consideration for your 55, as if whoarrrryou had a chance to re-raise after you called the 24c, there is the potential that he will; that could easily deny you any where near a good price to set mine.

with an idea of our Maximum cost, as well as a good idea that someone will stack off on a 1 pair hand, we can know our approximate implied odds 9around 9.45 to 1, or 24c to win $2.27 total).

2) Will a set of 5's be "good enough" to win?

- Some times an opponent will flop BETTER than your set of 5s (if you hit them)
- Some times an opponent will out draw you even though they did not flop better

The fact that at least 1 of your opponents is probably "stuck" to the pot if they hit is good for you if you flop a set, but it is also somewhat "bad" too. the large rpot means they will probably be un-able to fold decent 1 way draws (like flush or open end straight draws), and those will get there against you a good amount of the time. Each time they do, YOU will likely be losing max (if you do not re-suck out to a boat).

This means you need to not only flop a set which is best, and see someone go all in (either as a call, or by raising all in into your set), but you also would want to see at least SOME money above the bare 8.5 to 1 chance you have of flopping a set. 9.45 to 1 is above the 8.5 to 1 minimum needed, but usually in these spots you'd prefer to have like 12 to 15 to 1 pay off to keep a set mine going.

Can you see that here?

Well...

Again, that depends upon what you think of the play patterns of your opponents.

To get at least 12 to 1 on our continued set mine, we either need whoarrrryou to get all in with at least 26c added to the pot by [Ru]KeksiK, or we need [Ru]KeksiK to get all in with 43c added to the pot by Whoarrrrryou.

In my opinion, with both opponents being so aggro, if we were to slow play a set there is a VERY GOOD chance we'd have the 12 to 1 pay off we'd love to see if we flop a set. Slow playing though, increases the chance of us being drawn out on if there are draws on the board...

So...

A lot of whether you keep going here will depend on the personal level of risk acceptance you have in your play. You can possibly see an appropriate pay off to call the 24c, but that is no guarentee. This means a fold to the 24c 3bet is fine too.

About the only thing that would be atrocious would be to 4bet and re-open the betting versus these tight ranges!

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 05:18 PM..
 
Old
Default
Sat Mar 10, 2012, 09:12 AM
(#3)
puchium's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Hi Puchium.

The situation you are facing really is pretty typical, and looking at your equity from implied odds can be more complex, but let me try to simplify it by looking at your hand here...

Implied odds are a calculation of your total "risk" versus the total "reward" you may derive from that risk.

With a set mining hand playing versus tight ranges, chances are good you will have to look on your hand as "no set/no bet" on the flop. This means your total investment is pretty easy to calculate: it is the amount you put into the pot pre flop, whether that amount is 6c or 24c.

But while you know exactly how much you are willing to commit to the pot, you can only guess about how much your opponents may be willing to commit on certain hand types. Since you are not getting correct pot odds to set mine versus even the first raiser, you will be required to "guess" if he will pay you off to the tune of 8.5+ to 1 for your 6c investment (51c total), and if either of them would pay off a total of $2.04 to call 24c total.

This means you must look at a few factors:

- Opponent aggression on the flop (the more often they will bet or raise whether they hit or not, the more you might extract with a set)

- Opponent calling tendencies (the more often they will call on over cards and/or weak draws, the more you can like extract with a set)

- The pre flop pot size (this effects the strength of hand an opponent might need to stack off entirely; the larger the pre flop pot is in relation to the smallest stack, the more likely an opponent might be to call off on something liek top/top or an over pair)

The depth of money created in a HU situation between the initial raiser and yourself would not favor playing 1 pair hands extremely "fast". Given that the opponent has a 9/9 stat line which is really a pretty tight/aggressive profile, I think you can probably expect him to get at least CLOSE 51c in for you at least. That makes a call to set mine ok, although if whoarrryou is the type to play with an awareness of stack to pot ratioes (meaning he can FOLD top/top hands and even over pairs on some boards on this depth of money), it may be harder to get the full pay off you need.

When [Ru]KeksiK 3bets over your call, the pot moves up to 57c, and when that is added to the $1.70 remaining in the 3bettors stack, you are presented with a possible $2.27 pay off for a continued set mine for 24c total. This gives you about 9.45 to 1 on a call here, which is still a decent price.

You see Puchium, when [Ru]KeksiK 3bets, he creates a SPR of only about 3 if you call, and this makes it a lot more likely at least 1 of the opponents WILL stack off with a single pair (like top/top or an over pair), without a ton of extra "risk" that any set you flop will not be good.

This means your considerations change a bit...

1) You MUST be "closing the betting".

Not being able to close the betting with a call of the 3bet means you cannot "know" your cost to potentially set mine.

In this situation you are closing the betting if you elect to flat the 24c 3bet and continue your set mine.

This is a CRITICAL consideration for your 55, as if whoarrrryou had a chance to re-raise after you called the 24c, there is the potential that he will; that could easily deny you any where near a good price to set mine.

with an idea of our Maximum cost, as well as a good idea that someone will stack off on a 1 pair hand, we can know our approximate implied odds 9around 9.45 to 1, or 24c to win $2.27 total).

2) Will a set of 5's be "good enough" to win?

- Some times an opponent will flop BETTER than your set of 5s (if you hit them)
- Some times an opponent will out draw you even though they did not flop better

The fact that at least 1 of your opponents is probably "stuck" to the pot if they hit is good for you if you flop a set, but it is also somewhat "bad" too. the large rpot means they will probably be un-able to fold decent 1 way draws (like flush or open end straight draws), and those will get there against you a good amount of the time. Each time they do, YOU will likely be losing max (if you do not re-suck out to a boat).

This means you need to not only flop a set which is best, and see someone go all in (either as a call, or by raising all in into your set), but you also would want to see at least SOME money above the bare 8.5 to 1 chance you have of flopping a set. 9.45 to 1 is above the 8.5 to 1 minimum needed, but usually in these spots you'd prefer to have like 12 to 15 to 1 pay off to keep a set mine going.

Can you see that here?

Well...

Again, that depends upon what you think of the play patterns of your opponents.

To get at least 12 to 1 on our continued set mine, we either need whoarrrryou to get all in with at least 26c added to the pot by [Ru]KeksiK, or we need [Ru]KeksiK to get all in with 43c added to the pot by Whoarrrrryou.

In my opinion, with both opponents being so aggro, if we were to slow play a set there is a VERY GOOD chance we'd have the 12 to 1 pay off we'd love to see if we flop a set. Slow playing though, increases the chance of us being drawn out on if there are draws on the board...

So...

A lot of whether you keep going here will depend on the personal level of risk acceptance you have in your play. You can possibly see an appropriate pay off to call the 24c, but that is no guarentee. This means a fold to the 24c 3bet is fine too.

About the only thing that would be atrocious would be to 4bet and re-open the betting versus these tight ranges!

Hope it helps.

-JDean

very very helpful, really appreciate the time taken to write this!
 

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