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Big River Bet - Fold my KK overpair right?

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Big River Bet - Fold my KK overpair right? - Sat Mar 10, 2012, 12:22 PM
(#1)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Just got this situation -



Don't know the opp - so have to assume they have something better right?

But it;s tough to fold KK with no ace on the board.

How much equity would I have against a strong player?

I think the opp is not bad - but hard to put them on slow played AA.

So what else could they have?

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Sat Mar 10, 2012, 12:32 PM
(#2)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Maybe quads 77 or PP tens at a guess, either way was a lot on that board that beat you.
 
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Sat Mar 10, 2012, 12:35 PM
(#3)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
Maybe quads 77 or PP tens at a guess, either way was a lot on that board that beat you.
watching it again i am saying quads
 
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Sat Mar 10, 2012, 12:42 PM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
One of the reasons I like 3betting KK from the blinds is because it allows me to range my opponent better. Here, you've kept the villain's range wide, which is a bit problematic. If you know the specific types of hands he likes to play, it might help you. For example, if he doesn't like suited connectors, it's much harder to put him on trips.

In my limited experience playing 6-max, I'd say this looks like a suited connector most of the time, and a bluff the rest. Some spazzy villains might raise 99 for value, but consider this: every connector from 98 to 54 has made trips or better. Since those are popular hands to play from the CO in a 6-max game, it makes sense that the villain would have that. Any hand in the connector category would have flopped big, or flopped a draw, and given their strength, would likely have seen no reason to raise before the river, because you seemed fine betting and there was no reason to scare you away.

What's more, top pair/overpair hands would likely have raised the flop or turn for protection, and would likely not raise the river given the possibility that a one-pair hand could be beat. That takes Tx and JJ+ out of the villains rage imo, which leaves just the trips, straights, boats, and bluffs. I'd fold here.
 
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Sat Mar 10, 2012, 05:57 PM
(#5)
opismirin's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 79
Tbh man, I think he had the open ender, and hit his open ender then a straight flush. he smooth called on the 6 let you repop on the river, and then pushed. And preflop action was only 6 cents, so a suited connector like 8-9 is definitafely in his range.
 
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Sat Mar 10, 2012, 10:06 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Ed.

The SPR set up by the pre flop action does not favor stacking off here with an over pair normally.

You under repped your KK by not 3betting pre, so realistically JJ/QQ or AT may be here, but so could straights/flushes and sets or even a hand like A7.

You are risking 2.20 more to win 4.20 (6.40 total) and you need to be right about 35% of the time to break even here.

These sorts of bets are rarely going to be made without strength though, so I have a feeling as "yuck" as it might seem, this is probably a fold.

If you had info that would tell you that the opp might over play an AT or JJ hand when the board pairs and the 3rd flush card comes, or if you had info that he is aware enough to bluff a "scare" card, this could be a call. Without that info I think you may be beat here a bit more often than necessary for you to show a profit in calling, as it is more probable he flopped a set, or drew down to hit the flush on you.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sat Mar 10, 2012 at 10:23 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 11, 2012, 09:17 AM
(#7)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
I agree with JD here:

I'll explain it from my point of view:

You pickup KK in the SB, UTG raises and you call. I think you make a mistake here because there is still the BB to act and he might just decide to stick around with an 78o or something.

I like 3-betting for several reasons:
- Strong hand, You have the 2nd nuts (PFR), therefore
- You want to build a pot.
- You don't know much or nothing about your opponent
- It makes your decision making easier.

Well you didn't that is fine with me also but then you made another mistake:
You make a donk bet on a super safe flop, this is really a good moment to check-raise and even get all money in on the flop.
Due to your donkbet your opponent might stick around with AK AQ perhaps AJ because he doesn't believe you and these hands will not raise you.

which I think he probably does.

when the 6 of hearts peels off, an 89 straigth could have gotten there. that is also a reason to check raise.
It might be hard to put your opponent on a straigth since he opened UTG, but I (almost) always raise small PP and suited connectors in many bit tightish games.

here you bet again and he calls, so at this point he definately has something.
which is either overpair, top/top, trips, straigth or two overs with a (nut)flush draw.

the river gives the flush draw a winner vs you, trips and straigth already got there. However I think trips and straigth probably would have raised the turn. Seeming you bet twice for value it seems.

Here is your final mistake:

You didn't ask yourself: IF I BET HERE AM I WILLING TO GO ALLIN?? if yes, bet if no, check/call or check/fold. since your hand is pretty strong and very underrepped definately check/call.

You weren't thinking about the next action, what if?? What's next??

I think you are beat here, but there are still some hands that you could get value out, like JJ/QQ AT. perhaps he would bluff AK, AQ AJ. who knows. if you check, then call.

to conclude:

play ABC poker vs opponents that are unknown
don't play out of position
think about the next step(s)

Sjekkkk
 
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Sun Mar 11, 2012, 10:08 AM
(#8)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
by reading it myself, I didn't make clear that he actually could have had A high only and be bluffing this river.
 
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Sun Mar 11, 2012, 10:21 AM
(#9)
dopplerboyf5's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 149
BronzeStar
ED

If you were a donk like me you would have called and lost the pot.

But you are not a donk like me and you made the right call.

I agree its very tough to fold pkt.KK
 
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Sun Mar 11, 2012, 12:22 PM
(#10)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by dopplerboyf5 View Post
ED

If you were a donk like me you would have called and lost the pot.

But you are not a donk like me and you made the right call.

I agree its very tough to fold pkt.KK
I do wish I wasn't still capable of being a donk - but although I've improved a lot since being at PSO I am still capable of playing like one.

I think I knew at the time I should fold here and had played the hand badly on every street - just getting all the feedback here confirms that - I totally agree with most of what has been said - especially reraising preflop which is my usual line with as strong a hand as KK - that would have helped later decisions. As I didn't do that I got deeper into the mire and didn't know where I was. I SHOULD have lain them down on the river....



The opponent did call me a donk in chat and I had to agree!

Still - this is how we learn, hopefully. I'm not too proud to ignore my mistakes if I think I can learn from them.

Thanks for all the feed back.

Good luck all

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Sun Mar 11, 2012, 01:05 PM
(#11)
shirshot's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 665
Your fold was the right move, I don't beleive he/she was bluffing there.
You definitely made a mistake by not re-raising preflop.
Your bet on the flop look like you hit top pair or second pair, your turn bet looks like a continuation
of the flop bet. Your river bet could look like trips or two pair.
His river shove looks like he didn't have to think about it so he most likely had no less than the flush with the ace. Pocket tens a possibility but if so he made a mistake on the turn by not
reraising as he could be drawn out on with a flush.

LOL I went back to review the hand while typing this and watched the hand at the end. (Not knowing there was another video on the hand )
I had thought you folded the way the top hand video had stopped then all of a sudden his 10's show up at the end and I'm like WTF
 

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