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Losing value?

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Losing value? - Sun Mar 11, 2012, 08:26 AM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
We're at hand #8 in a 9man. No real reads on the opponents yet.



QQ in the hole is dangerous as far as I'm concerned. Way too often I get outdrawn with it. Still, I'm not throwing em away and I'm not limping. So I make a standard 4x raise from UTG +1. UTG+2 3-bets me to 240.

So here we are faced with
Decision #1: flat behind or shove?
I opted to flat behind. If I shove, I'm likely getting called by AA, KK, AK, and maybe a smaller pair or worse A. I don't wanna go broke on hand 1 running into AA or KK, or any A that hits the flop. And yes, I know you can't play QQ afraid you're running into AA or KK all the time, but that is what's been happening to my QQ lately, so a bit of caution on my side.

The flop's nice. All undercards, no flush draw.

Decision #2: Lead out or check?
I opted to check to the raiser. He's shown he has something, let's see what he does on the flop. If he really had the AA or KK, he's likely to bet. With an underpair, he might check behind or bet smallish. For now, I'm going with the assumption that my queens are good. If he bets, I'll shove on him. If he shoves, we have another major decision on our hands.

The turn's a pretty good card. Again, no flushes possible. Yes, it paired the board, but I really doubt he's holding a deuce in his hand. And in case he has a pocket pair, the chance he flopped a set on me just got a whole lot less as it's unlikely it would have been a pair of deuces.

I'm not checking it to him again, so I lead for a little over half pot.

The river is a Jack. Best card ever, since I now still have the overpair to the board. At this point I'm not giving him JJ+, considering his passiveness. The same applies for a pocket pair that hit a set. Although he could just be trapping, but what the heck. So, time to take him to value town.

Decision #3: Size of the value bet.
I have only a potsized bet left. Normally I'd go for a half - 3/4 potsized bet, but that would leave me very short stacked. In my mind, that's not a good thing. I could go a lot smaller of course, or I could shove here. If he has any part of this board, especially if he has a jack, he could very well be calling off. A pair of 10s or 9s might call as well. Anything else he's probably folding.

I opted for the potsized bet. He folds and shows pocket 9.

So the question is, did I lose out on some value with this hand, or did I get what I could. Looking back, I think the villain has a pretty decent idea what he's doing.

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Sun Mar 11, 2012, 11:25 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Hi Ov3rsight!

Preflop, I like open-raising with QQ here. When the opp 3-bets me, I'm calling it. It's too early to 4-bet shove and I don't want to value own myself.

The flop brings 3 overcards and with an overpair to the board, I'm going to lead in this situation. With it being a dry board, I'm going to size my bet at just under 1/2 pot, about 200. I want to build a pot, but not drive the opp away, as there really aren't many draws in the range of a player that 3-bet preflop.

The turn pairs the 2. In this situation, I'm making another small value bet (about 1/3 pot). Again, I want to build the pot, but not chase away the opp.

The river is another undercard. Yes, shoving here is only about the size of my stack, but what I want to do, as I should have the best hand, is to bet whatever I think the opp will call. Shoving will scare away many opps and I'll lose value to the hands they missed, so I want to make a smaller bet of about 1/3 pot again. This way I can get called by AK, AJ, A10, or a lower pocket pair, where a shove could scare them away.

If there were flush draws, multiple straight draws or overcards, then I'll make a larger value bet (to price out draws), but with a dry board and what should be the best hand, I want to be sizing my bets so that I can build a pot and keep the opp in the hand.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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