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Test your hand reading ability

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Test your hand reading ability - Sun Mar 11, 2012, 10:59 AM
(#1)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
Hi guys,

I am going to describe a hand right here with a play I made vs an opponent. I am NOT going to tell you my hand, and you guys should tell me what EXACT hand I got.

I was playing in a 25NL HE but for the eaze of math I am going to pretend it was 100NL HE
with big blind $1and small blind $0.50. It is a full ring game with 10 people.

I am in the Big blind and my stats are on average (I always refresh my stats, for my table image, but these are very close to my overall):
Hands tracked: ~500 VPIP: 24 PFR: 11 AF: 5.2
3bet: 5 fold to 3bet: 57% CBET: 82% fold to CBET: 48% Went to showdown: 18% Won at showdown: 100%. I play 2 tables. My stack contains $150

Which equals a pretty loose aggresive solid player, it could be concluded that I play position and the player from these stats.

UTG +2 opens for 4X BB with stats of:
Hands tracked: ~300 VPIP: 16 PFR: 13 AF: 3.2
3bet: 2 fold to 3bet: 67% CBET: 87% fold to CBET: 82% Went to showdown: 20% Won at showdown: 100%. He plays 12 tables. and has a bit over $100 (100 big blinds)

This guy is Tight aggressive and solid. Looking at the overall stats, this guy plays pretty ABC poker (straigth forward) and folds pretty much every mediocre hand (unlike my stats), with my read on him that is true.

Everyone folded and I look at Xx Xx. I decide to call:

Pot contains $8.50
Flop comes

[Kh] [8c] [3h]

I check, villain bets $6.

His hand range is Top/Top, overpair (AA), trips(KK). Is it likely he has 88 and 33? perhaps, not too likely seeing his stats and play style.
He could have [Ah] [Qh] or type of hand, but I think he would bet less with a semibluff, more like 50% of the pot. Also when he misses I think he'd bet 50% of the pot on such a flop.

With this read I think it is profitable to continiue, and I call:

turn brings a [4s]

Pot contains $20 Board contains:

[Kh] [8c] [3h] [4s]

Again I check and the villain bets $14.50

Again a bet of ~75% of the pot, now I am certain he has AK or better. He will not make such a big bet twice on a heartdraw or middle pair such as TT+. I think he'd check it back or bet ~40 - 50% of the pot. Therefore I call.

Pot contains $49

River brings a [Th]

Board reads:

[Kh] [8c] [3h] [4s] [Th]

I move allin for the remaining $75 (villain his remaining stack).

The villain folded, so I don't think he had trip kings but who knows.

In two days I will reveal my hand. good luck
 
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Sun Mar 11, 2012, 03:48 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hello Sjekkkk.

It is quite hard to say what YOUR hand is specifically, as you might have made a "mistake" somewhere. As such, the best I can do is guess based on what I THINK your hand is/was:

56h. Or some middle connector 2 heart hand that picked up addition outs on the turn (57h/67h)

2nd alternate: J8h (because you leave AQh in the range for your opp); any 8hxh hand could fit here too, although some are pretty weak to be calling a TAG raiser pre flop.

3rd alternate: a bluff bet on the scare card river.

Now these may not be what you had, but it does "fit".

If you hold a hand like 44, you probably should have bet or raised immediately upon hitting, and a chase past the flop with only 2 outs and 2 overs on board is a bit "meh".

If you hold a hand like 88/33, then you probably should have C/R'ed the turn when it became apparent on the 2nd bullet that the villain believed he held a value hand.

If you hold a hand like TT, then the "chase" past the turn is a bit "meh" (altho peeling the turn is probably a bit better than doing so with 44) and the big lead on the river will be turning a set into a bluff really...a solid player would probably consider mucking a top/top or even an over pair hand to that bet (unless you are very bluffy). same goes for a top 2 hand like KT...

So about the only hands I can see you playing like this are flush draws that picked up some straight outs on the turn.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sun Mar 11, 2012 at 04:46 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 11, 2012, 04:26 PM
(#3)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
You don't think he had trip kings?

Why?

Did you have a king?

You see I'm excluding from your range the stuff you 'think' he doesn't have - even though you might be bluffing us here by putting the opps range on cards you yourself hold.

I don't know how laggy you are but I prefer to go for semi-connected hearts here so I'm taking a shot with 9hJh.

I have other choices - but that defeats the object and I dont want to tell everyone you really have my favourite hand - 2c2d...

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Mon Mar 12, 2012, 04:40 PM
(#4)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
i need more hands guessed guys!
 
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Mon Mar 12, 2012, 04:58 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjekkkk View Post
i need more hands guessed guys!
Gotta be honest with you here Sjekkkk...

A lot of folks may be a bit reluctant to appear "wrong". This is a good question, but I wouldn't really expect a ton of folks to "put themselves out there" to answer.

I think people who ARE reading this should know that a discussion is about helping us all to formulate our thoughts on hand reading.

To really "read" Sjekkkk here, we'd need a bit more info on his than he gives us really, so there is absolutely NO SHAME in being wrong. Toss your thoughts out so we can discuss them!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Mar 12, 2012, 05:59 PM
(#6)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I think it is a bluff bet on the scare river card, you had pocket 2s

Alternatively, 5,6, hearts or maybe the 10s.

Cheers,

Tony
 
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Mon Mar 12, 2012, 07:05 PM
(#7)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
My guess is you had 8h9h.
 
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Mon Mar 12, 2012, 07:36 PM
(#8)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjekkkk View Post

His hand range is Top/Top, overpair (AA), trips(KK). Is it likely he has 88 and 33? perhaps, not too likely seeing his stats and play style.
If you hadn't said that, I'd have guessed 88 (?)

(- didn't reraise, so that eliminates AA, KK, (and AK I would guess?))
(- you were priced out of chasing flush draws, since you couldn't have had a straight draw or overs in addition)
(- the villain clearly has a pair or better)
(- I don't have cbet stats showing on my hud, but that cbet % seems kind of high ... sometimes people who cbet a lot who suddenly don't are slowplaying? But also maybe you might have been worried about KK)

Just a guess ... I don't know ...

In any case, thought that shove was really cool! Like gosh, you made it awfully hard to call with just AK ... and apparently even KK possibly ... wouldn't that be something if you had just a couple of rags!

Probably I'm wrong, but I still really like your moves based on what I think I'm seeing
 
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Mon Mar 12, 2012, 07:53 PM
(#9)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
My 2nd guess is Ah8h.
 
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Mon Mar 12, 2012, 08:34 PM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Ok so ultimately it doesn't matter what you had since he never has a flush and he also never calls your overbet shove when the flush comes and you take a line of c/c, c/c, bomb river.

But, doing a little deductive reasoning based on the info you've given...

You can't have AhXh since you stated AhQh is in his flop c-betting range (although you thought he'd bet 50% pot, is he really that transparent???). You can't have a small pocket pair because you also said you thought it was profitable to continue on the flop, and with only 2 outs to improve even counting hearts as bluff outs, this isn't profitable to continue. You didn't flop a set, because you said you think it's profitable to continue on the flop (not you know it is), and assuming you understand how to play this player check/calling a set on the flop and turn would be really badly misplaying it imo.

You can have some of the suited connector heart draws. You can also have 8x, which would leave you 5 outs to improve plus allow you the bluff outs of hearts.

Not sure anyone is going to guess your exact hand without getting lucky, because you have a range of hands on the river here not one specific hand. I'm almost inclined to think if you did make a flush, you picked up straight outs on the turn, otherwise you misplayed the hand imo as just a naked flush draw can not call his turn bet profitably, it's not enough outs to improve and you are never getting paid off a penny if you make your hand.

Like JDean I'm curious to see if you made some mistakes here because unless you have 8x or 5h6h (or misstated something along the way) it may not have been an optimal line vs. this guy.

Edit: You can also have a hand like 5c6c, air on the flop with just a couple back door draws... although you're out of position this guy is a great float candidate, if he checks the turn behind you can bet any river card and take it away with a reasonable degree of success (which would make your flop call profitable based on his float candidacy alone). On the turn you KNOW he's got AK+ when he bets again, but now you can call again having turned an open ended straight draw, giving you 8 real outs and 9 bluff outs (the hearts) to draw at.

Dave


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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 12:55 AM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Wouldn't anybody be worried with a check-raise on the turn with a set (of 8's) that they'll only get called by better (set of K's), and fold out worse (AA, AK)?

I mean like who knows ... I don't know
 
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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 01:57 AM
(#12)
bearxing's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 499
If you are convinced that he does not have a flush draw, then going all in on the river does not make sense if you do have a flush. You have the best hand and will only fold out worse. The same arguement eliminates you having KK.Your reads on the flop have put him on AA, AK or KK. The only hands you could have are AA, AK, 88 or 33 to make calling his flop bet profitable. It is quite possible for your all in to be called by KK, because the flush draw was priced out. AA or AK will almost certainly fold because of your possible trips. Going all in with 88 or 33 will fold out his worse AA annd AK hands, but he will call with far too many better KK hands for it to be profitable. All in with AA gives you a bit better odds as he will fold the AA hands which would chop the pot. Still you would lose too many KK hands to make a profit. The only hand which your all in bet is correct is AK. You fold some of his KK hands and all AA hands which have you beat. You also fold out the AK hands which result in chopped pots. You can call his bets on the flop and turn with AK, even though you know you are behind because his stats show he is very bluffable.
 
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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 05:29 AM
(#13)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
You were right dave and chucky, I had 87 (but of clubs). And yes the guy was really that transparant.

I called this guy PFR since I knew I could outplay him.
since I was drawing to 5 outs and almost certain I'd be payd off on the river.

I am almost never folding on the flop when I hit, but leading out and take a chance of being reraised and have to trowh my hand away is also not an option. Therefore the check/call.

I don't improve and check again to be verified if I am indeed behind, and I am on the turn. So is calling with 6/7 bluff outs and 2 outs and 66% sure he'll bet again if i check when a heart comes that improve me to two pair. with 3 outs to draw to two pair or better.
In total 12 outs where 9 hearts exist?

I was also well aware of my image(more like a nooby) someone who has low % of folding and playing decent amount of hands

Last edited by Sjekkkk; Tue Mar 13, 2012 at 05:51 AM..
 
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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 05:53 AM
(#14)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by bearxing View Post
If you are convinced that he does not have a flush draw, then going all in on the river does not make sense if you do have a flush.
Yeah ...

What I found interesting about the shove was that, while, I didn't think the flush was believable, your shove raised enough doubt that it made it incredibly hard for somebody with just a pair to call.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjekkkk View Post

I called this guy PFR since I knew I could outplay him.
since I was drawing to 5 outs and almost certain I'd be payd off on the river.
Were you still going to shove if none of your draws completed by the river?
 
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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 09:21 AM
(#15)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Wouldn't anybody be worried with a check-raise on the turn with a set (of 8's) that they'll only get called by better (set of K's), and fold out worse (AA, AK)?

I mean like who knows ... I don't know
We should be raising the flop with a set, not the turn, but nope, not worried about losing AA/AK if we raise the flop.


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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 09:29 AM
(#16)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
We should be raising the flop with a set, not the turn, but nope, not worried about losing AA/AK if we raise the flop.
Oh, I was referring to JDean's comment - where he said that somebody with 88 should have check-raised the turn.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
If you hold a hand like 88/33, then you probably should have C/R'ed the turn when it became apparent on the 2nd bullet that the villain believed he held a value hand.
And to that I was wondering if that wouldn't have had the effect of just pumping up the pot for a better hand (a set of K's) whilst folding out worse (AA, AK).

I'm not sure what you mean by saying that you thought somebody with a set would be worried about losing to AA or AK ... is that something some people would be concerned about?

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Mar 13, 2012 at 09:46 AM..
 
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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 11:20 AM
(#17)
becar1989's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 19
Hy!
With that good readings of your opp in my oppinion you could have hearts connectors 5h6h.
 
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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 12:20 PM
(#18)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
We should be raising the flop with a set, not the turn, but nope, not worried about losing AA/AK if we raise the flop.
I agree with this...

My comment was directed at the way the hand played out...if he wanted to check the flop to slow play, at the latest he should have raised the turn. On the turn is when it was said Sjekkkk was sure his opponent held a value hand. If he slow played the flop, then that was the point he should have raised to extract value from his slow play.


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 12:42 PM
(#19)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Well, you know what was weird about this hand, is that if sjekkk had a made hand with like 88 or AK, that set or TPTK was possibly good (if QQ was in the villain's range), but also possibly behind.

Like it's another one of those middling hands.

In which case, the shove on the river to get the villain to fold was kind of weird - like, wouldn't a set of 8's WANT AA and AK to call a river raise?

Except that the hero had no way of knowing if they were ahead or behind.

Like there's that dilemma with a middling hand of whether to pump up the pot or try to pot control.

What do most of you do? You figure maybe with hands that are right in the middle of a villain's range, in which you have no way of knowing of you're ahead or behind, that it tends to wind up a wash over time if half of the time you wind up winning and half the time you wind up losing, such that ultimately it doesn't matter if you raise more or try to put control?

Like sometimes you're able to obtain better clarity about where you stand by betting, but sometimes not, eh?

That's kind of been something that's been on my mind with regards to getting reraised with QQ. In SNG's there was always more time to develop reads, so it wasn't uncommon for me to take a pot-control line, although that got debated once at a table, and one person favored a fold pre, and another person favored a reraise-shove.

But lately I've been playing cash tables, where you don't really get the chance to develop reads, and I've been playing these pots for stacks with QQ and ... I guess they've wound up a wash - one time I was up against KK, another time it was TT. But such a small sample size ... anybody have any thoughts?

Sorry for going off on a tangent ... in my mind, these comments seem related to the o/p, but then again, maybe not so much, eh?
 
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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 01:00 PM
(#20)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I am getting really confused with this one; so there is nothing new there then

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjekkkk View Post
You were right dave and chucky, I had 87 (but of clubs). And yes the guy was really that transparant.
Siekkkkk says here as I read it that he had the 87 clubs.

But how could he have 87 clubs when the flop contained the 8 clubs

Quote:
Flop comes

[Kh] [8c] [3h]
Or am I missing something?

Cheers,

Tony

Last edited by topthecat; Tue Mar 13, 2012 at 03:51 PM..
 

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