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Rasing into draws in Limit?

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Rasing into draws in Limit? - Sun Mar 11, 2012, 12:48 PM
(#1)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
One thing I've noticed at low stakes Limit STT's and cash is that players always raise into draws on the flop (and check when they flop strong but that is another story), I'm wondering especially in cash plays is this a profitable situation?

The draw is going to hit 1 time in 3 but is it profitable raising on every ocasion? By raising you also have a chance of taking the hand down without a showdown, I know it's no foldem at the stakes I play but is betting the river a right play even if you miss your draw? On the times you do hit by the river the pot is usually a big one.

I'm pretty profitable at limit STT's but I've often wondered about this. I do mix my game up and do raise the odd ocasion but as it's a STT my tournament life is more important and I usually wait until I hit knowing it's no foldem before I start raising. I know how to work out my outs but I've never delved into the maths of Limit.

I'm doing something right though.
 
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Sun Mar 11, 2012, 12:52 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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***moved to LHE strategy section since not a ? about a specific hand JWK24***


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Sun Mar 11, 2012, 01:29 PM
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Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
To note, I'll generally raise when I have a 15 outer especially a nut flush draw where I have top pair on the flop (that makes general sense anyway) it's when I have 8 or 9 outs that bothers me.
 
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Sun Mar 11, 2012, 04:38 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
One thing I've noticed at low stakes Limit STT's and cash is that players always raise into draws on the flop (and check when they flop strong but that is another story), I'm wondering especially in cash plays is this a profitable situation?

The draw is going to hit 1 time in 3 but is it profitable raising on every ocasion? By raising you also have a chance of taking the hand down without a showdown, I know it's no foldem at the stakes I play but is betting the river a right play even if you miss your draw? On the times you do hit by the river the pot is usually a big one.

I'm pretty profitable at limit STT's but I've often wondered about this. I do mix my game up and do raise the odd ocasion but as it's a STT my tournament life is more important and I usually wait until I hit knowing it's no foldem before I start raising. I know how to work out my outs but I've never delved into the maths of Limit.

I'm doing something right though.
Hi Ovalman.

Raising draws on the early streets in LHE can tend to be a profitable play as quite often this gives you "free cards".

When done on the cheaper early streets, it can potentially slow down a lead bettor with a somewhat marginal holding (like top pair/weak kicker), and cause him to suspect you may hold a better kicker. If he then checks when the bets amounts go up, you can elect to check behind on your draw, thus causing yourself to see the turn and the river for just the cost of the single "small bet" raise amount. Example:

Bets = 10/20
(5 and 10 posted)

It folds to SB who calls in. BB checks option.
Pot = 20

Flop comes: 8 9 3 rainbow.
SB holds JT and checks.

BB leads for 10...

If the SB can see both the turn and the river he will tend to hit his straight about 34.4% of the time.

If he check/calls, and misses the turn, he will be looking at having to pay 10 + 20 (if the BB bets the turn as well) to get his full 34.4% chance.

If he RAISES however, he may get to check a "scary" card (such as an A), and NOT see the BB bet if the BB holds a weak 9. This could result in him paying just to see the turn AND the river, as he'd then check the turn, see BB check behind, and then check/fold river misses. If he HITS the river however, the 20 lead bet would lay 3 to 1 for the villain to call, and the villain would likely feel obligated to make a "crying call" with a hand like 9x.

It is a matter of calling 10 to perhaps spike a 17% chance, when you are getting only 3 to 1 (needing about 4.1 to 1), and RAISING to set up perhaps a 3 to 1 pay off when you'd get to see BOTH CARDS for the initial 20 chip risk; if you get the free card you'd need only about a 1.9 to 1 pay off to break even.

The problem with folks is that they tend to think LHE does NOT entail "reading" opponents; it does...

In HU pots it really requires someone who will aggressively bet weaker holdings, but then NOT bet those holdings in the face of draws to make betting for free cards on a draw a good idea.

In multi-way pots, you will often see enough in the way of pot odds to make playing draws by calling profitable, and the lesser chance of folding everyone out makes raising to try getting free cards a tenuous proposition.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


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Last edited by JDean; Sun Mar 11, 2012 at 04:40 PM..
 
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Mon Mar 12, 2012, 06:43 AM
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Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
My problem is with no foldem players which I meet a lot of at these stakes, in a typical 6 seat STT I have 3 players with a 50%+ VPiP and the other 2 have a green fish tagged to them. This may sound ideal but I can tell you it isn't, they fold nothing and just keep swopping chips amongst them.



I counted 15 outs on that flop and don't think I done much wrong until the river where I maybe should have checked and called his raise should he do so.

But is this spewing chips knowing the majority of my opponents can't fold? Should I be counting 15 outs on that flop or should I just be counting the 9 outs flush draw? I notice 3 players in every pot chasing every gutshot/ bottom pair under the sun.

Is there a difference betting into draws in STT's than cash? Maybe that's an unfair question as not everyone plays STT's.

I'm a break even Limit player but OK at STT's by combining the two I do OK. Until the start of February I had a ROI of 17% but the inevitable tilt has led me to question my play.
 
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Mon Mar 12, 2012, 11:36 AM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Hi oval,

With a flush draw you're about 4-1 to make it with 1 card to come, 2-1 to make it in 2 cards. If you have at least this much going in on the current street (like in a multi-way pot) then you are actually raising for value with your nut draw as you're getting an overlay.

In this hand you are heads up, and you have 2 overcards but they are not clean outs so you can't just say you have 15 outs. What I mean is catching a J or A do not guarantee you to win the pot, i.e. the villain can have that beat already (like a set) or also improve on those cards (the villain will be playing hands like JT and any flopped pair+ace kicker).

Your bet on the flop is good as a semi-bluff, with a lot of outs (talking about the AdJd hand), on the turn however the bet is bad... your villain is a calling station so once he calls the flop, he's got something. You're not beating any pair, and he's not folding it, so if you bet the turn again you're just charging yourself to draw as an underdog, making this a -EV bet. It's not a semi-bluff if there's no longer a "bluff" component, and that's the situation you've got before you vs. a station who's called the flop bet. You're basically only ahead of him if he's got a draw himself, but most of his range will be 1 pair hands.. so the way to exploit him is to check back the turn and take the free card that stations give way too often. If you miss the river, just check it down and hope to win as you are beating all busted draws but losing to any pair and this villain is always calling with a pair (good read on the villain btw, given what he actually showed down).

Hope this helps,
Dave


Head Live Trainer
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Mon Mar 12, 2012, 03:31 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi oval,

With a flush draw you're about 4-1 to make it with 1 card to come, 2-1 to make it in 2 cards. If you have at least this much going in on the current street (like in a multi-way pot) then you are actually raising for value with your nut draw as you're getting an overlay.

In this hand you are heads up, and you have 2 overcards but they are not clean outs so you can't just say you have 15 outs. What I mean is catching a J or A do not guarantee you to win the pot, i.e. the villain can have that beat already (like a set) or also improve on those cards (the villain will be playing hands like JT and any flopped pair+ace kicker).

Your bet on the flop is good as a semi-bluff, with a lot of outs (talking about the AdJd hand), on the turn however the bet is bad... your villain is a calling station so once he calls the flop, he's got something. You're not beating any pair, and he's not folding it, so if you bet the turn again you're just charging yourself to draw as an underdog, making this a -EV bet. It's not a semi-bluff if there's no longer a "bluff" component, and that's the situation you've got before you vs. a station who's called the flop bet. You're basically only ahead of him if he's got a draw himself, but most of his range will be 1 pair hands.. so the way to exploit him is to check back the turn and take the free card that stations give way too often. If you miss the river, just check it down and hope to win as you are beating all busted draws but losing to any pair and this villain is always calling with a pair (good read on the villain btw, given what he actually showed down).

Hope this helps,
Dave
Agree 100%!

When you flop the draw and the Villain checks to you, betting to possibly win immediately is fine.

A) You may have the best hand, and get called by weaker diamonds.
B) You may not have the best hand, but get a very weak BETTER (like a 3) hand to fold.
C) You may get called by a better hand, but spike one of your many outs.

All in all, the check by the villain with 2 diamonds on board probably means he is on no better than a 1 pair hand (and probably NOT an over pair), so it is reasonable for you to think either a diamond or either of your over cards will be good if you hit them.

Those 15 outs leave you about a 32% chance to improve to a winning hand on the turn in that case, so the 2.5 small bets in the pot pre flop makes your 1 small bet lead +eV.

When the villain check/calls though, then checks the turn blank, the size of the pot (4.5 small bets), a bet is not quite as good really.

A) Villain has already shown he will check/call so he may have some value. Your draw will un-likely be best in that case.

B) If your draw IS best, the villain is un-likely to call with only 1 street to come.

As such, a check behind is better than trying to continue a semi bluff. If you had reason to believe this opponent would check/call the flop with a better made hand he is prepared to FOLD to a turn bet, or if you felt he would check/call the flop and the turn with a weaker draw, your bet is fine.

In a fixed limit betting structure though, you cannot vary your bet sizes to "deny odds" to a call; you are strictly relying on his discipline to fold very weak made hands OR you are relying on hitting your hand to win. By nature, a "calling station" is the type LEAST LIKELY to exhibit the sort of discipline to fold ANY made hand when there is a chance you are drawing or bluffing.

This means you will likely LOSE 1 "extra" big bet (at least) about 2/3rds of the time when you miss, and he continues to call. To best play against a calling station type, someone who will not have the discipline to fold ANY pair in limit to a river bluff bet if you miss, a check behind is far better in my opinion too.

You bet on the river also has little real chance of getting a pair to fold, because by then, the pot has grown to 5.25 big bets (pre flop = 2.25 BB, turn adds 2 BB, a river bet by you adds 1 more BB), and the villain only has to be "right" that his pair is good about 19% of the time to break even.

If you are aggro AND the villain is a calling station, it should be pretty easy to see how he'd believe a 3 was "good enough" to check/call the river too...

...and that's why feeding in a turn bet for him, and then firing the 3rd barrel can be so costly in LHE.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Mar 12, 2012, 03:37 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Self edit, double post.


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Mon Mar 12, 2012, 05:09 PM
(#9)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
That made a lot of sense guys and the maths involved. I knew I made a mistake on the river but I felt the only way I could win the hand was by betting. I didn't realise my mistake was on the turn as well and I'll bear that in mind.

As I said I'm a break even Limit player but an OK STT player, combining the 2 has got me on the Battle of the Planets Leaderboard several times but I'd like to improve. I've never understood the maths but my hand selection, tight aggressive playing style and reasonable reading skills has won for me. I hit a bit of tilt since February and I knew I was spewing chips somewhere. This info has certainly fixed a leak in my game.

Many thanks, now be prepared for me to pick your brains some more
 

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