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Raise K9s from Middle Position

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Raise K9s from Middle Position - Mon Mar 12, 2012, 10:59 PM
(#1)
cletero's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 54
Hi, could anyone explain how could this guy (HERO) have raised K9s from middle position? What are the odds, what is he expecting? What's the plan? He is one of the top Pros in $100NL, so I wonder how it works, also calling a raise and re-raise in the flop with a flush draw. Sorry I didn't put a hand replayer linj, but got the hand from PTR, tried to convert it but wasn't able to make it work in hand replayer.

PS: I was finally able to load it into Hand Replayer, so here it is:


Last edited by cletero; Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 04:25 PM.. Reason: able to load hand into Hand Replayer.
 
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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 01:06 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hello Cletero.

Answering this question you pose with specifics is quite hard, but answering it in general terms is quite easy:

Hands such as K9s can be marginally playable if you have a specific PLAN for them.

The pre flop raise can be a good idea if the Hero knows his table is passive enough not to 3bet him. It can also be a good idea if they tend to not bet quite strongly post flop, which would increase the playability of any draws he might flop.

The flop call when he picks up the 2nd nut flush draw is really not terrible, as the depth of money going to the flop could net the Hero quite a LARGE pot if he spikes the turn. The min raise of the donk lead really doesn't change a whole lot for him if he has an effective range on his opponents, and thinks a K hi flush will still tend to get paid off well; there is still quite of bit of money he could possibly win left in the stacks he is playing against.

The check by the hero on the turn is perfectly reasonable, and he may consider giving up if the MP2 player bets again. His check gives him "relative position", and allows him to see the full range of actions by both opponents to assess the possibilities his hand has to continue; this is perfectly reasonable as well.

When the river gets him to his 2nd nut flush, there is really no sense in the Hero betting his hand. It is unlikely that anyone with a set would pay him off when the 3rd club comes, and with a good bit of $ left in the stacks, he could see a large river RAISE that may put him to a stern test. By checking through the river on his flush, there is a marginal chance MP2 may bet again on a set or 2 pair hand, and Hero can probably call that bet.

all this is speculation though...

The key thing to note is that if you have solid reads on opponents you can generally range them effectively, and then determine your equity with a wider variety of holdings that players without the ability to form solid reads have. after that, it is a simple matter of maximizing your equity...

I'm not saying this is a 'great" play, but raising K9s versus the right set of opponents can work...as long as you have enough info to PLAN what you are going to do on a variety of flops.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 10:10 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hand looks pretty standard to me, but I don't like his river check.

Your asking why he opens K9s, what are the odds of hitting and what is he expecting, indicates you're playing his cards. I guarantee you he's not. K9s in mp is more of a semi-bluff preflop, he probably believes the table dynamic is profitable for it. Personally I would open K9s here if there were loose-passive players behind me (I open it for value since they call with lots of worse hands) or if there were tight-passive players behind me (because they fold too much and don't punish me with raises when they're ahead). If there were very aggressive players behind me I'd tend to just pass it in mp as this hand is difficult to play well oop vs. aggro players on 100 bb stacks.

Flop play is standard, BB donks into us and if he thinks this guy will not be bet/folding to a raise then semi-bluffing is no good, so for whatever reasons he feels flatting with his big draw is the best play, it's fine. Folding to the min-raise would be atrociously bad. Even if he were 100% certain both opponents would simply fold if the flush card comes (a pretty ridiculous assumption), he's still getting over 6-1 to call this raise on a 4-1 shot, so the call is immediately profitable. And he's likely to get additional action if he flushes, as the min-raiser usually will have a big hand or big draw himself (like a combo draw, which K9s can over-flush.

Turn check is standard, we can't expect the min-raiser to fold to a bet now, and in fact might get raised, so betting is just charging ourselves to draw.

Personally I think a value bet is in order on the river. Now when the flop min-raiser checks back the turn his hand looks like a draw making a free card play. So maybe he's going for a check-raise. Without reads I think it's better to bet straight away so we make sure we get value from good 1 pair and 2 pair type hands, and if the guy made a flush we may well get raised. Sometimes he'll have the nut flush but there will be enough worse flushes in his range that it's profitable for us imo. Maybe he had reads (which we don't have) that lead him to check.

Dave


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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 10:15 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
When the river gets him to his 2nd nut flush, there is really no sense in the Hero betting his hand. It is unlikely that anyone with a set would pay him off when the 3rd club comes, and with a good bit of $ left in the stacks, he could see a large river RAISE that may put him to a stern test. By checking through the river on his flush, there is a marginal chance MP2 may bet again on a set or 2 pair hand, and Hero can probably call that bet
Hero should never fold in this spot. And MP2 is never checking back a set or 2 pair on the turn, so we can comfortably take those out of his range imo. Regardless, he's much more likely to get a value bet paid off by 2 pair+ than he is to induce those to bet once the flush card comes. I would only check this river is some special unique circumstances (which may exist, we don't have hero's reads), generally a value bet is in order imo.


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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 12:58 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hero should never fold in this spot. And MP2 is never checking back a set or 2 pair on the turn, so we can comfortably take those out of his range imo. Regardless, he's much more likely to get a value bet paid off by 2 pair+ than he is to induce those to bet once the flush card comes. I would only check this river is some special unique circumstances (which may exist, we don't have hero's reads), generally a value bet is in order imo.
I will be honest, I do not think ANY opinions about what the hero in this hand should, or should not do are really valid, and as such I probably should have avoided putting ANY thoughts up. We have ZERO info about the ranges of the villain(s), we have ZERO info on theeir bluff tendencies and value betting tendencies, and we have ZERO info about the sort of equity a 2nd nut flush may have in this spot given this bet pattern. This means we have zero chance to really know if the villain maximized his expected value in this spot...

The point of this question was: "How can a good palyer play a hand like K9s from middle position"...and the simple answer to that is...

The more info you have on opponents, the better you can plan what to do to get the most out of a wider range of hands.

For a newer player, entering a pot with K9s from MP is not (normally) a very good play at all.

A newer player may not be able to range his opponents effectively enough to determine his equity versus those ranges. A newer player may not be able to process info he does have well enough to maximize his equity with hands like K9s either. As such, a newer palyer benefits from keeping his decisions as simple as possible by playing a tighter range of hands when he may find himself out of position.

A better, more experienced player who has a good hadle on the ranges of his opponents, can determine his equity versus those ranges on a variety of boards, and knows how to maximize that equity versus the specific opponents he is playing the hand against, can see benefit in getting involved MORE OFTEN in hands in order to potentially see more chances to get into the stacks of opponents.

ANY hand can "win"...

You just have to know how to process your information in order to see if THIS hand can potentially win, and plan your actions before you decide to enter to give you the best chance for winning.

The better you can do that, the more hands there are that become playable for you.


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Tue Mar 13, 2012, 01:32 PM
(#6)
cletero's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 54
Hi guys, thanks for the answer, I found this hand so interesting because I struggle when I bet 3BB preflop with AA-AK, KK and opps call with this type of hands, then no A comes on the flop and they raise, I find it hard to know if they are making this kind of play on a flush/straight draw or if they actually hit a set and I´m already behind. I´m loosing a lot on this (I'm talking $2NL of course, so no big deal), and because last week I hit a bad run and was not hitting a single good flop with my best hands, I actually decided to take a few days off until I get a grip on this (I was overwelmed by how opps were playing with me). I was close to being able to move up to next stakes but now I lost like 10 buy ins in a 3 days and don't see hope of recovering unless I learn. Have a nice day.
 
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Wed Mar 14, 2012, 12:43 AM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by cletero View Post
Hi guys, thanks for the answer, I found this hand so interesting because I struggle when I bet 3BB preflop with AA-AK, KK and opps call with this type of hands, then no A comes on the flop and they raise, I find it hard to know if they are making this kind of play on a flush/straight draw or if they actually hit a set and I´m already behind. I´m loosing a lot on this (I'm talking $2NL of course, so no big deal), and because last week I hit a bad run and was not hitting a single good flop with my best hands, I actually decided to take a few days off until I get a grip on this (I was overwelmed by how opps were playing with me). I was close to being able to move up to next stakes but now I lost like 10 buy ins in a 3 days and don't see hope of recovering unless I learn. Have a nice day.
No problem cletero...


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