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Card Counting Question

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Card Counting Question - Wed Mar 14, 2012, 05:55 AM
(#1)
jergul's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 80
Do some situations allow for counting cards with reasonable accuracy?

Here is a contrived example:

I am BB with AKo. Everyone before me calls. Given player tendencies to play all A and most K (at my level of play), is it then possible to estimate how many A and K remain in the deck in this situation?

My gut tells me ~3 of 6 remaining AK are already dealt in this situation. Which seems significant. But is it correct in an average way?
 
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Wed Mar 14, 2012, 05:59 AM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
That seems like a very rough, but logically correct way of thinking.
 
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Wed Mar 14, 2012, 06:22 AM
(#3)
0HighTimes0's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 840
I learn't five hundred from my grandfather, and u had to count cards too win, which helps in poker I think
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...ed-Card-Games-!

Last edited by 0HighTimes0; Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 07:19 AM..
 
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Wed Mar 14, 2012, 08:05 AM
(#4)
taxi128's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 245
Quote:
Originally Posted by jergul View Post
Do some situations allow for counting cards with reasonable accuracy?

Here is a contrived example:

I am BB with AKo. Everyone before me calls. Given player tendencies to play all A and most K (at my level of play), is it then possible to estimate how many A and K remain in the deck in this situation?

My gut tells me ~3 of 6 remaining AK are already dealt in this situation. Which seems significant. But is it correct in an average way?

card counting can only be used when the same deck is used for consecutive hands. then you see what cards are gone from the deck and know what cards remain also all cards must be turned up so you can see them. In regular poker card counting is imposible.
 
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Wed Mar 14, 2012, 08:21 AM
(#5)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
Not really. My fuzzy logic tells me, a "tendency to play all A and most K" would also include a "tendency to play most pairs and most suited", not to mention a whole other range of hands.
 
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Wed Mar 14, 2012, 08:41 AM
(#6)
0HighTimes0's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 840
@I'mJigJig
I'm talking about over many1000s++ decks of cards not just one hand there is patterns of how cards come out i believe(i maybe wrong here) and that's random in its self (if flush has just come out there more likely be full house/four of kind/straight flush / royal etc after flush etc?)

Last edited by 0HighTimes0; Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 08:45 AM..
 
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Wed Mar 14, 2012, 10:33 AM
(#7)
jergul's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 80
I think a lot of callers does tell me AK are underrepresented in the sense that if I were to get the hand with 8 callers on the BB 1 thousand times, I would find that fewer than a normal number of AK remained in deck preflop (assuming I could check this out of course).

This would mean that my likelihood of drawing an A or K is less than normal. So the odds we all use (well this is at worst a toss up with perhaps several tossers since they all called and none raised) is no longer true. This is worse than a toss up and I am an underdog.

Normally this would be a shove 3b+8 = 11 is usually going to be at least 1/3 of my chips. But here I will probably lose to any pocket pair, though likely win against any other holding. If I assume at least 1 pp somewhere, then I want to get rid of him somehow. Well, the best way is still a shove. I will beat Ax and Kx most likely. They might call of shove, just as small pairs might fold and their might not be larger calling pairs. So I pretty much play AK as I normally would.

What if the circumstances were the same and I had (what I would do):

JQ, J10 suited (shove)
Pocket pair 22-55 (check)
66+ (shove)
Suited or connected anything (check)
Anything else (check)

The hands I am playing different than normal are JQ, J10, 77, 88, 99. Otherwise the normal 3-bet+1 per limper applies, or I am spec calling.

The main point being there are some hands I would play differently.

There is a method to my madness in a contrived circumstance at least

Last edited by jergul; Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 10:38 AM..
 
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Wed Mar 14, 2012, 10:52 AM
(#8)
jergul's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 80
Jigjig
The value of what you hold on hand preflop is always based on a likelihood. You don't need to know what other people are holding to figure that QQ is pretty good, even if it turns out two other players are holding AA and KK.

So you bet the QQ strongly, even without knowing what other people have. You are betting on the likelihood that QQ is good, not the certainty that it is. Are there times to fold QQ preflop? Well, is the betting telling you one or more are likely holding AA, KK, AK? There is no way of knowing for sure, but the way they bet should give an indication.

We all use odds without knowing for sure. And use information available to adjust our suspicion on what we think our chances are for winning.

This is also true in the case of the contrived example I gave.
 
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Wed Mar 14, 2012, 03:49 PM
(#9)
jergul's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 80
I dunno Jigjig, I am pretty analytical, though still in a very early learning curve stage in poker.

Your position seems to be that in this contrived case at least, the way people bet tells you nothing about the cards they have. Which seems a novel approach to poker if we were to unfairly extend that perspective to all situations.

I could be wrong in making assumptions based on limping preflop - which to me are not completely random hands. I did post this in beginners questions after all. No need to stomp all over the posts.

Cheers,
jergul.
 

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