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river decision | 90 man

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river decision | 90 man - Wed Mar 14, 2012, 11:33 AM
(#1)
CZDonkey's Avatar
Since: Mar 2010
Posts: 60
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $300(BB) Replayer
SB ($5,282)
BB ($5,703)
UTG ($2,995)
UTG+1 ($2,457)
UTG+2 ($4,150)
MP1 ($12,361)
CO ($2,920)
Hero ($5,860)

Dealt to Hero T:diamond: K:spade:

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $630, SB calls $480, fold

FLOP ($1,760) A:heart: 6:diamond: K:diamond:

SB checks, Hero bets $1,056, SB calls $1,056

TURN ($3,872) A:heart: 6:diamond: K:diamond: 3:heart:

SB checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($3,872) A:heart: 6:diamond: K:diamond: 3:heart: T:spade:

SB bets $2,400, Hero ???

what is best line here? call or reraise allin.


Or bet more on the flop (1200) and set pot size for turn bet allin?
 
Old
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Wed Mar 14, 2012, 12:10 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Bet smaller on the flop. If he doesn't have an ace, he'll go away.

I like your play in this hand, and I think the river action should depend on your read on the villain.

If he's a weak player:

Reasons to raise:

His range has a ton of Ax hands in it that will call any sized raise on the river. Most of these hands are only one pair hands, so you get value from his range even though you don't beat every hand (you beat A9-A7, but A6 beats you).

Reasons not to raise:

His range does have flush draws and straight draws in it, and you cannot raise for value against ether one. Flush draws will fold, and straight draws will call you and win with a rivered straight.

If he's somewhat tight:

Reasons to raise:

I can't think of any.

Reasons not to raise:

He has fewer Ax combinations in his range. He'll also have fewer draws, but just about anything that called you on the flop is beating you now (AK, 66, 33, etc.). Two exceptions are AQ and AJ.

I think raising for value is somewhat thin, and it looks to me like there is more evidence advocating a fold than a raise. In-game, without a read that he's tight, I would usually raise this anyway, because there's also always a chance that he's just clueless and will call you with 64s. And the value you get from A2 is probably bigger than I think it is.

Great post.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Wed Mar 14, 2012 at 01:34 PM..
 
Old
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Wed Mar 14, 2012, 01:28 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi CZDonkey!

Where are we at in the tourney? Is it near the bubble, after the bubble, mid-tourney?
What chip position are we in? What reads do we have on the opp? Have they been passive, aggressive or been playing many flops?

The answers to these questions will determine the way that I'd play the hand.

On the flop, if I wanted to c-bet and try to represent an A, then I would make the bet size even slightly higher, as I need to price out a straight draw, flush draw and possibly a combo draw. To do this, I need to bet 3/4 pot. When the opp calls, I'm putting them on an A or one of the draws.
The read on the opp that I had would determine whether I would check or c-bet here. With 2nd pair and an A on the board, I'm most likely checking the flop.

I would check the turn when the blank hits and the opp checks to me, for pot control with having be the flop. If I checked the flop and the opp checks again, then I would make a value bet here to try and take down the pot right now.

On the river, I now have 2 pair, but one of the straight draws hit. The opp that has been passive the entire hand now leads into me for about 2/3 pot. Here again is where a read on the opp would be critical.
If the opp has been very passive, I may even muck here depending on chip position and number of players left in the tourney.... will only happen a very small % of the time, but is an option.
The wide majority of the time here, I"m going to call, as I don't want to put my tourney life on the line with a hand that I'm not sure is the best hand.. and I do have showdown value.
If the opp is very loose, playing the majority of the hands, and is known to bet most river cards, then I'd consider shoving over them.

In this hand, reads and tourney info (stack size relevant to the others in the tourney, how many are left in), etc... will be what determines the way that I would go about playing it and unfortunately, this info was not provided.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Wed Mar 14, 2012, 02:31 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Hi CZ,

Let's go street by street. What does his flop call represent? He's probably got some piece of this flop. It could be a pair, two pair, a set, or some kind of draw. This gives him a range of a bunch of Ax, A6, Kx, 6x, pocket pairs like 22-55, 77-99 (discounting the bigger ones since he just flats preflop), a couple of diamonds, or QJ/QT/JT. Although, with the board a little drawy and definitely expected to hit your range hard you would expect him to most of the time play two pair or a set faster and check/raise you right then.

When he checks the turn and leads the river there are a few options. Either he was planning on check/raising the turn, OR he sees what he wants on the river. This is a pretty strong line. We can pretty much take all those marginal pairs out of his range, as there's really nothing for them to get value from, and they shouldn't need to turn into a bluff. He probably has an ace or king minimum for his value range (possibly trying to value bet against JJ, QQ, since you were preflop raiser these are totally in your range). He also has a few two pair possibilities that beat you (A3, AT, A6)

What about his draws? The flush draw and all but one straight draw missed so that's a good thing right? Remember the two reasons for betting: to make better hands fold, to make worse hands call. With a busted draw that's totally busted, no pair, he might feel the need to bet here to try to take the pot down. (and he clearly won't call a raise) But what if he had a hand like ? Would he really feel the need to bet, as he's probably not making a better hand fold? [Also, neat thing, you have the ! This means he can't have a diamond draw that backs into a pair of 10s.] Anyhow, same goes for his straight draws. QJ gets there, but QT and JT back into a pair. They would most likely NOT lead with this pair, and certainly are not expected to bet and call a shove with them. If he had checked to you I'd say this is a great value bet spot, as a lot of his draws have backed into a pair, but I wouldn't want to raise here. In fact if checked to I might just shove to make it look like I'm the one with the busted draw! Since as I said a lot of his draws have paired up, as well as the Ax hands he can have, he has a lot of bluffcatchers in his range and may try to bluff-catch you since you're only representing QJ/busted draws!

Anyhow, I don't think you leave much value by just calling here, and you never make a better hand fold. If he does happen to have you beat you still get out with about 7 BBs.


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Wed Mar 14, 2012, 11:21 PM
(#5)
CZDonkey's Avatar
Since: Mar 2010
Posts: 60
Thanks.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $300(BB) Replayer
SB ($5,282)
BB ($5,703)
UTG ($2,995)
UTG+1 ($2,457)
UTG+2 ($4,150)
MP1 ($12,361)
CO ($2,920)
Hero ($5,860)

Dealt to Hero T:diamond: K:spade:

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $630, SB calls $480, fold

FLOP ($1,760) A:heart: 6:diamond: K:diamond:

SB checks, Hero bets $1,056, SB calls $1,056

TURN ($3,872) A:heart: 6:diamond: K:diamond: 3:heart:

SB checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($3,872) A:heart: 6:diamond: K:diamond: 3:heart: T:spade:

SB bets $2,400, Hero calls $2,400

SB shows J:diamond: Q:diamond:
(Pre 44%, Flop 42.6%, Turn 25.0%)

Hero shows T:diamond: K:spade:
(Pre 56%, Flop 57.4%, Turn 75.0%)

SB wins $8,672
 

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