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1$-45mans Bubble

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1$-45mans Bubble - Thu Mar 15, 2012, 10:25 AM
(#1)
nee0903's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 61


No specific read on the villain.The villain had lost a couple of pots with good hands so could be a little tilty ,but no specific info.Do you call with this hand being the bubble in this situation.What factors do we consider here. Do ICM calculations come into picture here?
 
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Thu Mar 15, 2012, 01:28 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Hi nee. Easy shove imo. Here's why:

1) You are ahead of the shover's opening range. He is shoving 3bb UTG; in the next two hands, half his stack will be gone, and he knows this. Most players from his position would be shoving any two cards that look any good at all.

2) You are priced in to call with just about any two cards anyway. You are getting 2-to-1 in pot odds.

3) There is only one person behind you, and the chances of him having a better hand than yours are slim. Even if you do get called, you may be ahead of his calling range because KQs is a very good hand.

4) There is only one way you can bubble the tourney this hand- The BB needs to call, and both the shover and the BB need to beat you. The majority of the time, the shover should be bubbling this hand.

5) If you lose this hand, you have a full orbit before you need to get involved in another hand. That's plenty of time for someone deeper than you to make a mistake and knock themself out in a $1 game.

6) If you fold here, there's a decent chance the BB will not take his amazing pot odds and call, so the table short stack will basically get a free pot. You have a hand, so don't let that happen.

Hope that helps!
 
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Thu Mar 15, 2012, 01:33 PM
(#3)
nee0903's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 61
thanks panicky poker..i thought the same way before shoving..
 
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Thu Mar 15, 2012, 03:10 PM
(#4)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Nee,

Well played I think.

I agree with Panicky

KQs should play very well vs his shoving range given his position and stack size. We also never want to flat in this spot and let the BB try and bully us out. So the shove is perfect to isolate the short stack.

In terms of ICM if we know/think the BB is folding we only need 40% equity to make the shove here since we are not the ones at risk. So KQs is going to play well enough.

If the BB does call, an ICM calculation gets a bit confusing. But if the BB does show up with a great hand then he will likely bust the short stack also meaning we should still take 7th. So I think we are good in this situation also.

Good Luck
Andy




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