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Help me be clear on Pod odds 1: flush draw

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Help me be clear on Pod odds 1: flush draw - Thu Mar 15, 2012, 11:03 AM
(#1)
cletero's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 54
Hi, been watching some videos and I believe I had understood pod odds incorrectly, so I will try to ask a few questions just to be clear that I understand things properly. I will ask one at a time and start one thread for each to avoid confussion. So, maybe I should start by preflop, but this interests me the most for a start, since it's a common situation:

I hold AdQh, I raise 3BB, villain calls, blinds fold, so the pot at this point is 6BB plus blinds, so it's 7.5BB.

Flop comes Ac Ah 7c, and I believe my opponents is going for the flush (it's his kind of hand) so, for ease of understanding, I go to Poker stove, select all hands which involve 2 clubs (AcKc all the way to 3c2c), I evaluate the hand with this flop and get roughly 75% equity for me and 25% for villain.

Now, I assume he will call any bet, so how much should I raise to make him loose money in the long run? I would say half pot is the break even point, anything bigger and he would be loosing, am I correct?

I know the example is simplified, but I want to focus on odds and leave other stuff out of the question (like whether or not my hand is good enough, whether he called w 77 and already has a full or can get quads, stack sizes, whether he had odds to call preflop, etc.).
 
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Thu Mar 15, 2012, 12:49 PM
(#2)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
My understanding of pod odds is its the chance of surviving an attack by a man eating plant.

For pot odds in your example he would with 2 cards to come expect to make a flush 1 time in 3 (i think)

So if he has to put in more tahn one third of total pot (after your bet he is getting incorrect odds)

This may change if he knows you have set and if he thinks you will NOT pay off if a flush card comes...

so in summery carry a chainsaw if you travel near flesh eating plants


Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Mar 15, 2012, 01:59 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
@ cletero, the odds of him making a flush are about 4-1 against with 1 card to come, and 2-1 against if he's getting to see 2 more cards. You can figure this for any draw by counting outs. In this case you can see 5 cards (your hole cards and the flop), so there are 47 remaining cards that are "unseen", any of which can theoretically come. If you hold a flush draw 9 of those cards get you there, while 38 of them don't, so you are 38-9 against turning a flush, or ~4.2-1 against. If he's getting a worse price than this then chasing it is -EV long term. The equity run in pokerstove for your specific example is a little worse for the flush draw, because the Qc is not an out (it fills you up), and you have other ways to make a full house or quads on the turn which leave him drawing dead, or if he flushes the turn, you'll have 10 outs to river him.

@ Grade b, wow I am glad you posted because you are taking a really fishy line vs. man eating plants. The most dangerous man eating plants will inject you with a neuro toxin that will render you paralyzed in a matter of seconds, preventing you from using the chain saw. Additionally, you run the risk of being picked up on suspicion of being a serial killer if you are walking around holding a chain saw. At the very least you will get a lot of funny looks and it's not very social outside of the lumberjacking community. Carry a strong anti-neurotoxin when you anticipate problems with these man eating plants. It's easy to carry inconspicuously, and once the neuro-toxin is neutralized, it's easy to free yourself with your bare hands, it's just a plant after all.

Hope this helps.

Dave


Head Live Trainer
Check out my Videos

4 Time Bracelet Winner




Last edited by TheLangolier; Thu Mar 15, 2012 at 02:02 PM..
 
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Thu Mar 15, 2012, 02:50 PM
(#4)
cletero's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 54
Yes, a little misunderstanding with the tittle there, I sometimes write in a rush and just trust my typing skills.

So, about the hand, the reason I placed Pokerstove calculated equity was to eliminate all the interpretations taken when calculating outs, ranging hands, implied odds, being in position, etc. which are a skill by itself. I promise I will make my point after I get answer, just want to be sure I´m right with this.

So lets do it simplier, and start from the beginnig: PREFLOP. Bove guys are equally bad, the only thing I have to my advangtage is that I have a HUD, Pokerstove and know about equity. What I'm going to describe is my average hand and why I might be loosing money. I play $2NL so it's 1c/2c blinds.

I am Small blind with AdQh and 3bet and get called by the Bigblind, who according to my HUD does this 30% of the time. So I run a quick pokerstove calculation and put AdQh vs 30% of hands and get 60% equity. That means 60% of the time he loses 2c and 40% he wins 4c. Am I right?

Last edited by cletero; Thu Mar 15, 2012 at 03:12 PM..
 
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Thu Mar 15, 2012, 03:44 PM
(#5)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by cletero View Post
Yes, a little misunderstanding with the tittle there, I sometimes write in a rush and just trust my typing skills.

So, about the hand, the reason I placed Pokerstove calculated equity was to eliminate all the interpretations taken when calculating outs, ranging hands, implied odds, being in position, etc. which are a skill by itself. I promise I will make my point after I get answer, just want to be sure I´m right with this.

So lets do it simplier, and start from the beginnig: PREFLOP. Bove guys are equally bad, the only thing I have to my advangtage is that I have a HUD, Pokerstove and know about equity. What I'm going to describe is my average hand and why I might be loosing money. I play $2NL so it's 1c/2c blinds.

I am Small blind with AdQh and 3bet and get called by the Bigblind, who according to my HUD does this 30% of the time. So I run a quick pokerstove calculation and put AdQh vs 30% of hands and get 60% equity. That means 60% of the time he loses 2c and 40% he wins 4c. Am I right?

Nope. If it goes to showdown 100 times he wins 40 of them and you win 60 but only (and this is important) if all the money goes in here. (i think)

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Mar 15, 2012, 04:03 PM
(#6)
cletero's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 54
Or if we check all the way to the end... that's why equity is used at the moment, it will change depending on the flop and play will be different. My question is based on that moment he decides to call preflop, is he loosing, and how much? If he doesn't call he is already loosing his blind too.
 
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Thu Mar 22, 2012, 02:00 PM
(#7)
billybrims's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 1
[QUOTE] I am Small blind with AdQh and 3bet and get called by the Bigblind, who according to my HUD does this 30% of the time. So I run a quick pokerstove calculation and put AdQh vs 30% of hands and get 60% equity. That means 60% of the time he loses 2c and 40% he wins 4c. Am I right?

You say 3bet and get called by the big blind. who are we 3betting?

Its folded around to us in the small blind holding AdQh and we open raise for 3x the big blind.Acording to our HUD villan calls with 30% of hands in this spot. so we have 60% equity vs villans 40%.If no more betting happens and we aways see a river our EV=2.6 big blinds.

Our equity * what we win - Villans equity * what we lose .

60% * 6 - 40% * 2.5

3.6 - 1 = 2.6

I think.
 
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Thu Mar 22, 2012, 09:11 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Cletero.

Maybe this is a bit simpler...

If you think a villain is on a flush draw, and he ONLY has a flush draw (no additional outs like 2 pair outs or overcards etc), then he has approximately a 17% chance to hit the turn. He needs a bit over 4 to 1 to break even on a call with pot odds (as Dave says).

To DENY him that price, you would need to bet right around 1/3rd of the pot.

EXAMPLE:

Pot = 150
You bet 1/3rd (50).

Pot = 200, and villain is risking 50 to win 200, at 4 to 1.

He needs a bit OVER this this amount to make a call +eV on pot odds alone.
(if he had a 20% chance to hit the next card, you'd NOT be denying odds with this bet, but rather laying the EXACT price).

Simple!

Now to get a bit more complex....



Betting the absolute MINIMUM to deny pot odds to a draw is not always a great idea though...

Your "goal" when you think you hold the best hand should be to bet to deny odds, and also to INVITE A CALL at that bad price. Betting the absolute minimum is certainly "inviting" of a call. The thing is, does it actually deny a TRUE price to draw? Consider...

The only way we are denying a correct price with the absolute minimum bet amount is if we intend to call NOTHING if a 3rd suited card comes...ever.

If we intend to call SOMETIMES, just in case the opp might bluff a flush or jsut in case we have some chance to improve to BEAT a flush, we are adding "implied odds" to his possible win for taking the draw risk.

EXAMPLE:

Pot = 150
You bet 1/3rd (50).
Pot = 200, and villain is risking 50 to win 200, at 4 to 1.

3rd of a suit falls on the river, we check, the villain bets 50, and now WE are getting a "price" of 5 to 1 to CALL.

That "price" means if we think the chance that the villain is bluffing PLUS the chance of us improving to a hand that can beat a flush, adds up to at least 16.67%, we "break even" by making a call.

4 outs to a boat plus 1 out to quads with 1 to come gives us about a 10.87% chance to improve to a boat+ just on our re-draw outs. That means we need to think the villain might bluff a flush hit only about 5.8% of the time to break even on a call.

We are almost ALWAYS going to be able to think we have that much of a chance a villain might bluff if we bet small on the flop, and then see a small bet by the villain behind a check by us on the turn, right? We can think that just because we have not shown a very STRONG betting line at all...

If we do intend to call a min bet then, that means the REAL price we gave with our flop bet was:

Pot = 200, and villain is risking 50 to win 200, at 4 to 1, PLUS another 50 we will call.
So we gave a chance at risking 50 to win 250...not 200, and the implied odds price was 5 to 1.

Needing only a bit over 4 to 1 to break even on a call, we actually gave the villain a +eV spot to continue BECAUSE we bet so weakly, and because we did not REALLY intend to insta-fold on ANY possible bet is a 3rd of a suit fell!

The thing is Cletero, betting to deny odds but invite a call with a value hand is pretty opponent specific.

The minimum amount to deny odds is easy to know really, as it is just a matter of reading the board and seeing what the BEST possible draw against you is; just bet the minimum to deny odds to that draw and you are fine no matter WHICH draw he holds...

BUT...

- if the opp was willing to pay MORE, you lost value by being "too inviting".
- if the opp was willing to call a LESSER amount that still denied odds, but betting against the "worst case" draw made him FOLD, you lost value by not being inviting enough.

The way to "strike a balance" between these 2 possibilities is to look a STANDARD BET AMOUNTS.; the reason they became "standard" is usually because they tend to work in the widest range of circumstances.

A "standard" Flop bet in a HU pot is usually half pot.

As we saw above, this denies odds to any 8 or 9 out draw quite nicely.

A half pot bet lays a price of 3 to 1 to call.

That half pot bet also tends to remain "inviting" to an opp with an incomplete knowledge of pot odds because they may (incorrectly) THINK their chance to improve on an 8 or 9 out draw is right around 35% and they only need a bit over 2 to 1 to break even. the chance of improving is around 35%, but only if you allow them to see both the turn and the river for that same price. You will have a chance to bet again on the turn though, so their 'real" chance of improving before they must pay MORE is only about 17% and they need a bit over 4 to 1 to break even on that chance...see?

I will finish this long ramble with an answer I gave to a question that was sent to me in a pm
(note, this hand is played OOP, and some small things change if you are in position. But I think you can get an idea on what adjsutments to make):


I raise with AhKs UTG opp call, flop Kd 8s 4d, How do I bet to protect my hand?

....

The BEST answer I can give you with the information you've provided is:

If I think I have the BEST hand on the flop, I want to bet to DENY odds, but INVITE a call.

With your hand on this flop, you have a pretty strong reason to believe you are best.

Against typical opponents, a bet is fine, but the sizing of that bet will change based on other factors.

If you think that "protecting" your hand means you want to bet so much that an opponent CANNOT CALL on a draw (or any lesser hand than yours), that would tend to be a mistake. It is a mistake because you are leading an opponent to make the "right" play against you (folding worse, or calling/raising better); doing that costs you value.

I would tend to favor a 1/2 to 2/3rds pot lead bet bet in a HU pot oop on this flop myself; this gives the maximum chance of getting called by worse, with the minimum risk of increasing my loss if my opponent gets lucky.

You could be facing as many as 14 outs for a draw here, and to deny odds for that to hit the turn you'd have to bet around 75% to 80% pot. If you are facing a 12 out draw like a 57d hand, you'd have to bet around 55% to 60% to deny odds. Versus just a 9 out flush draw though, you could bet as little as 33% to 35% and deny pot odds.

If the opponent will call MORE on a draw, or if I am so short that betting half to 2/3rds will commit me anyway, I would probably bet more.

If the opponent is always going to fold to a half or 2/3rds pot bet, but call a lesser amount with a draw (or a weaker K), I would probably bet between 35% and 40% of the pot.

If I CANNOT bet at least 1/3rd pot with ANY hope of being called by a lesser hand (VERY rare, but possible), I would tend towards CHECKING the flop in hopes my opponent will try a bluff stab I can either call to pot control, or raise for value (this line could result in you giving a 'free card" that could beat you though, so it is VERY opponent dependant).



Hope it helps!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Mar 24, 2012, 10:32 PM
(#9)
cletero's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 54
Hi JDean this helps and I understand, but sadly, hasn't done anything for me. Since I kept being told "you are on a bad beat", "you are winning on the long run", etc etc. I took 2 weeks off since it was getting into me. I watched videos, read info, posted on this forum, bla, bla, bla... I returned to playing yesterday, result: 4 more buy-ins lost. My best hands yesterday: QQ I raise, get called, villain makes flush, QQ again, villain makes flush, again, QQ again, flush possibility on the river, I bet anyway and get called, no flush but villain was short stack so I don't win much. AA, I raise, everybody folds, KK, I raise, folds around, KK again, get called, K on the flop I bet opp folds.
Todays top hands: AKo, raise 4BB, get called by villain w K7s, she gets two pair on the K7x flop, I end up loosing my buyin. Next hand TAo, I get called, ace on the flop, villain ends up having AJo. Next hand AQs, I raise, button goes all in (50BB) and BB al well, I fold, board comes out 9QJKQ, opps show AJs (button) and 77 the BB. Of course the one hand I decide not to call I would have gotten my first winning trips in about 3 weeks. Then I have JJ, opp raises so I decide to slow play call, flop comes all low cards, he obviously Cbets so I call, K on the turn he checks, I check back, 7 on the river so I decide to bet, he calls with QQ.
Last hand I have 99, opp raises, I call, board comes out low cards, I bet (no more slow playing), opp ends up showing KK. I decide to stop playing.
I can't remember the last time I got a flush, straight or even two pairs, and each time I at least hit top pair opps hit better hands with cr*p. If I don't at least try to play my top pairs, then I would be loosing anyway, since I'm never getting better hands.
I'm just done with this, I have no clue and no matter how much I try to learn, I just can't make it....
 
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Sat Mar 24, 2012, 11:53 PM
(#10)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
We've all been there, it's one of those horrible downswings. No matter how good your hand it seems you can't win, you get totally frustrated.

You have to learn to deal with it, no one runs good all the time. The only consolation is that it will turn around sooner or later. I know it's hard, but sometimes you just have to grit your teeth and carry on.

Hope this helps, good luck!!

 
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Sun Mar 25, 2012, 05:27 PM
(#11)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi again Cletero!

Todays top hands:

AKo, raise 4BB, get called by villain w K7s, she gets two pair on the K7x flop, I end up loosing my buyin.

What were the stack sizes?

If you were extremely deep going to the flop, you will probably lose SOME chips in this situation, but you may not have a "need" to stack off completely with a 1 pair hand.

Next hand TAo, I get called, ace on the flop, villain ends up having AJo.

AT is not a great hand if/when an Ace flops. Do you "expect" an opponent to call you with A9 thru A2, and then pay you off if/when you bet?

If so, why?

If you DO expect "them" to be bad enough to pay off on a lesser A, then why were you so "shocked" in the first hand to see a rag K call you and flop 2 pair vs your top/top?

Next hand AQs, I raise, button goes all in (50BB) and BB al well, I fold, board comes out 9QJKQ, opps show AJs (button) and 77 the BB.

What was YOUR stack? What was the BB's stack?

If you had the BTN covered, and you were not ITM or were not facing a BIG chance he'd shove over you with a big chunk of his range consisting of un-paired cards weaker than AQs, hen your fold is fine. What happens on the flop after that point is totally moot; sometimes when you fold 72o the flop will come 772...does that mean you want to call an all in with that cheese hand "just in case" you flop the boat?

.......

Bottom line is this Cletero, each of these spots where you lost are INDIVIDUAL SITUATIONS, versus opponents who are "individuals". When those individuals make mistakes, you WILL profit in the long run...as long as you do not make WORSE mistakes in the hand as well.

The point of my post above is that if you bet solely with an eye toward "blowing people off the pot" then you will most often get exactly what you want; no calls. Unfortunately, you gain nothing EXTRA from your opponents making further "mistakes" either...

BECAUSE you make nothing "extra" when the opponents compound their mistakes, when opponents DO NOT fold to large bets/raises, you tend to lose a LOT MORE.

Result: you win less when you win, you lose more when you lose, and you find it almost impossible to eke out a net PROFIT.

The problem with some people who get fussed over "beats" is that they tend to fall into a mind set where they try to PREVENT those beats. Beats are bad luck...bad luck happens...you CANNOT CONTROL THAT!

All you CAN control is you decisions.

There are times to get your stack in on 1 pair, and there are times when doing so is a really bad idea no matter how strong your 1 pair hand is.

There are times to play a top pair/medium kicker "fast", and there are times when you need to back off on those sorts of hands and possibly fold them pre flop.

There are times when what MIGHT be a better hand than your opponent's holding is simply not worth the risk of trying to play it, and since that decision will be either valid or in valid BEFORE you see any board cards, nothing which comes on the board later changes a good decision...even if you would have flopped a royal flush.

The idea behind all your poker decisions should be to maximize your return, but sometimes that calls for you to be a bit "careful" because PART of your "return" will include amounts you do not lose.

To keep playing, one must accept the fact that all one can control is ones DECISIONS, and then one should seek to put the most effort into each individual decision to make the most of the current situation. If you still lose, but your decisions are all CORRECT, then it is bad luck...and you cannot control that.

all you can do is recognize that no matter how it feels at the time, bad luck will NOT happen "all the time"....when it does not happen, you will re-coup the amounts you lost to bad luck, and enough of an amount to give you a profit too!

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 

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