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10nl 6max 99- A fold? or just get the money in?

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10nl 6max 99- A fold? or just get the money in? - Fri Mar 16, 2012, 05:36 AM
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Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 152
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Hi Everyone,

I seem to be posting alot of River spots lately and here's another one,i flopped my set of nines and proceded to value bet on the flop and turn and got called twice by my opponent who was ralatively new to the table he eventually had stats of vpip:17 pfr:17 from 41 hands but at the time when i played this hand it was from around 20 hands so i didnt really know if i could rely too much on his stats for a clear picture of his tendancies.

If a really passive opponent raises me allin on the river i would fold usually but in this spot could i really put my opponent on a backdoor flush? do i get my money in and if he made it he made it? or do i have to give this player more credit than i did at a level with many passive players?
i just couldnt bring myself to fold a set here,i thought my opponent could have made some 2 pair hands maybe a worse set.

What do you guys think? your thoughts would be much appreciated
 
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Fri Mar 16, 2012, 11:15 AM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi Nashy,

First of all, the vast majority of the time this is a value raise on the river, it's almost never a bluff (many players are not even capable of shoving the river as a bluff, and without specific reads it's a very safe assumption that a huge river bet or raise is for value).

So it becomes a matter of deciding what range of hands the villain can get to the river with that will now shove for value over your 3rd barrel. Given that you bet all 3 streets, including a flop that is very dry (the only legit draw is specifically 87) I'd say his call on the flop indicates at least an ace. He can also have flopped sets which he elects to slow play on a dry board to suck you into continuing to bet (in his eyes). And both AA and 66 are likely in his preflop raising range.

so let's figure out what his river shove range is. We led on a rainbow flop so the back door clubs should NOT scare him at all... therefore I think he is shoving for value with his sets. Aces up like specifically AJ make sense too. Can he have a flush? Yes, he didn't call the flop with 2 naked clubs but he certainly would have called the flop with AcXc, so while not probable the flush is possible.

It's a tough spot because our hand is at the top of our range and does beat a bunch of the holdings he'd probably shove for value.

Opponent specific reads would be so nice here.......

vs. a conservative or nitty player, they will always have a flush as they only raise all in on the river with the nuts or very close to it, so against that type it's an easy fold.

vs. a spewy player who likes to make moves, or one that overvalues strong 1 pair hands like AK in this spot, we have an easy call since they'll be shipping so many worse hands than ours.

An unknown is somewhere in the middle usually... we have to call $5.77 into a pot of $20+, doing the math we need 22% equity to break even on a call. Will we be good at least 22% of the time here? The short answer is, vs. an unknown villian I don't know, but probably yes. If he would only shove sets, AJ, and nut flushes (assuming AcXc since I don't think he calls the flop often with no pair and no draw we're actually about even money to have the best hand with our set of 9's, making it an easy call needing to be right only 22%+. Anything else he might shove falls into the worse hand category and only makes us right more often. So yeah I'm not exactly fist pumping with excitement here, but I think we have to call.


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