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6Max 2NL AKs Flop Nut Flush Draw & Overcards

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6Max 2NL AKs Flop Nut Flush Draw & Overcards - Sat Mar 17, 2012, 05:42 AM
(#1)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
This is a situation I am finding a lot on the flop, and I tend to try to get all my chips in fast, but I am not sure this is correct.

I am wondering what range of hands does my opponent need to hold for this to be a -EV move?

If the opp holds or has hit a single pair on the flop I believe I am still favourite with my draws on the flop, but if I range my opp tight am I wrong to shove the flop or call an all in bet with overcards and the nut flush draw?

In this example I get committed on the flop anyway against a smaller stack so probably wouldn't ever fold to the opps check raise all-in shove.



Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Sat Mar 17, 2012 at 05:47 AM..
 
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Sat Mar 17, 2012, 04:12 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi Ed,

It's always going to be profitable to c-bet/get it in vs. a villain playing a short stack like this guy, so 50 bb deep don't worry about it.

It may not be idea to get stacks in on the flop if the stacks are much deeper AND the opponent is tight/conservative. If they are stacking off 1 pair hands then go for it, but if for example you're 250 bb's deep with a villain who will only stack sets or better, then you'd be getting stacks in bad against them so it's better to just call generally. You might even take an alternative line like not c-betting the flop, check back flop and raise turn, which looks very strong and is deceptive because the villain doesn't put you on a flush draw then so if you river the nuts you'll be much more likely to get paid.

Again though alternative lines should come into play deeper stacked, on 50 bb effective in a 3b pot just c-bet get it in every time against all villains.

Dave


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Wed Mar 21, 2012, 08:54 AM
(#3)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
100% call,
it is the guy his first hand and your AK high might even be good,

you have to call 60 to win 160, which is roughly 2.8 to 1

against a one pair hand (that is not AA or KK) your hand will win 52% of the times.. factor in that he might be bluffing an A high as well.

The guy is a short stack and the play he makes PFR indicates that he is a weak player. if he flopped trips good game for him, he didnt get the good odds to call. and we still have 9 outs to the nuts.

a flush draw will win roughly 25% of the times vs a set allin on the flop.. this is your worst case scenario and 25% win chance is 3 to 1 and the odds are laying you 2.8 to 1.
 
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Thu Mar 22, 2012, 09:20 PM
(#4)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...c?sitId=164481

Your ahead of 99-QQ, AT, JQ, 9T, 78. 55% to 45%. Only need 45% to break even.Can't see you ever losing money here, except maybe against the tightest player ever who would only shove with top two pair or a set only.

Would never assume your up against AA or KK here. Even so, against KK your getting 45% odds to win which is still good enough lol. 33% vs AA still if the unlikely occurs and he shows up with em at showdown.
 

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