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2 months worth of bad beats

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2 months worth of bad beats - Sat Mar 17, 2012, 02:36 PM
(#1)
mikeyamr6's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 12
BronzeStar
Hi all.I no we all suffer from bad beats from time to time but i'm suffering from them like never before.A couple of months ago i had a week where i could do no wrong hitting every card in the deck at the right time.I sat at the table with so much confidence i knew i could bully players with any 2 cards and still win.But i realise that for every week like that i have to pay for it with at least 2 months of the worst luck you could imagine.I no people are thinking that i'm over playing hands or playing bad etc etc,but it isn't bad play everytime i'm sure.I no about calculating odds and outs having read the pso article about it so most of the time i no i am at least 90% ahead when the river comes only to see my opponent hit that 1 miracle card to make a set a flush a straight what ever.It happens all the time i no but when it happens over and over and over again at virtually every game i'v played in for the past 2 months i just feel like throwing the towel in.I'm now at the point where if i'm all in with another player and i no he has only say for example 4 outs i literally no they will hit it almost to the point where i'll leave the table to save prolonging the agony.I won't bother to explain the way the hand was played the last time it happened, all i'll say is phil ivey would have played the hand the same way i did and still i lost going to the river 96% favourite.When i hear about players being called internet phenoms and how they have made a fortune playing on the internet all i can think is they must have more than there fair share of the luck gene.
 
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Sun Mar 18, 2012, 08:46 AM
(#2)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
hey mikey how are you? good i hope, I have been reading this post for two days now and surprised no one as commented all ready.
I have only just decided to comment because this is the same story as mine, I did actually post a similar story not so long ago, and fair play it was deleted as my wording was not so great and did not come across as yours does.
I too had a card rush and was kickng variance in the teethe. however one day that rush was bound to come to an end.
MY rush came to an end and oh boy I carried that rush on when I knew I was going to put myself into trouble.
Over confidence is worse than having no cards, I let myself think I could win every hand literally.
I know you are saying about bad beats rivers etc, and yes i to have experiened this in my down swing, however taking a good look at my self and my hand history i realized lots of these pots should have been over long before the river. mainly preflop to be honest.
I now have dropped back to nit play which personally saves my bacon on more than one occasion,hopefully i can pull it back with some serious grinding.
I had a steady routine playing only a few a day . started winning so started to increase the hours I played, this lead to disaster. I then started to chase my loses again disaster.
I finally realised and put an halt to my play,now i am hanging on back in there slowly and hopefully pulling it back. I changed my game it cost me.
This not may be the fact in your case i am only presuming it is a similar case, so just ask your self and look at your self. are you playing to much.are you chasing loses etc etc.
hope this helps mikey good luck with the come back. let me know how you go on am interested.

Last edited by holdemace486; Sun Mar 18, 2012 at 08:48 AM.. Reason: typo
 
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Sun Mar 18, 2012, 09:12 AM
(#3)
XDcchrisXD's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 66
well even if you have a 90% chance to win at the turn, there is always the 10% chance you may lose. But there is always the possibility that this happens quite some times in a row, However, if you have a 90% probability to win, you will in the long run also win 90% of the time with these hands. Probabilities don't lie, but our mind tells us that the probabilities are somehow wrong. I have a course about decision making at the university in which we also learned something about psychological heuristics, and the thing you describe is a good example of how our mind sometimes thinks irrational. Just keep in mind when playing and you think you have a 90% chance to win, you shouldn't give up the hand, because the probabilities just don't lie. I hope your bad run will end soon, because it does suck to lose with hands that you lose on the river

(you probably know already what I just said, but that's just my opinion on the situation )
 
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Sun Mar 18, 2012, 09:48 AM
(#4)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Mikey based on your stats, you play mostly 50/50 and have only managed a 37% itm all time which only goes back to April 2011 when it appears you started playing. You also only have an 8*** rating which is pretty bad. You state up front that you could play any 2 cards and win for a week straight which leads me to believe you are not a TAG player and therefore bleed chips regularily which is backed up by yet another stat of 20.1% early finishes!

You also state that you have 2 straight months of losses yet I checked every month going back to April and you have in fact lost money every month in sng's ( i didn't check mtt )

I'm not saying this to be harsh I am saying this to help you understand that the numbers can be validated by anyone that chooses or has the right tools ( I use poker pro labs ) and the reason I do this is because I am involved in staking as well as the Cowboy's Challenge and I need these numbers.

I'm glad you have posted here and I'm glad that you are in the PSO forum because you can learn along with the rest of us and improve your game. I hear you crying out for help and there is plenty here. Videos, live training, hand analysis....... please take the opportunity to use these tools.

Giddy Up!
 
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Sun Mar 18, 2012, 10:22 AM
(#5)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
The only direction for your luck to go directly after an upswing in luck is back down. Your 100% going to run WORSE soon after. Now, you might not hit a downswing, but at the very least your luck will start running more normally.

It sounds like a serious problem you are going to have to work on is 'winner's tilt'. You are playing worse than you normally do when your running hot, spewing chips left and right. Sure you may be getting lucky a lot at the time, but of course it is not going to last. You shouldn't allow bad or good swings in luck effect your judgement at the table.
 
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Sun Mar 18, 2012, 12:57 PM
(#6)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
If a two month variance streak puts you down, how are you going to survive a six month one?

Each hand is independent from the one before. The cards or RNG does not remember the past. As you have seen variance swings both ways. Playing too loose on a hot streak is a form of tilt.

Whenever you're playing focus on making Good Decisions. When you learn that decisions matter in this game your game is ready to move up a notch.
 
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2 months of bad beats - Mon Mar 19, 2012, 10:54 AM
(#7)
mikeyamr6's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 12
BronzeStar
Hi mate thanks for your reply in fact thanks for all replies from everyone about my bad beat problem. I think i may have a solution and that is to play in freerolls.I also play on another poker site from time to time that runs a points for play system and remembered i had enough points to play in a £100 guarenteed tourney.I played the same way i would if i was playing in a $15 S N G it had 650 entrants and payed the top 70 places i made it all the way to 84 before i got knocked out.This time i put it down to bad play not a bad beat for a change but the difference is because it was a freeroll i just shrugged and walked away from the computer where as if i had payed to play i would have sworn wanted to break the computer and sulked for half an hour pathetic i know but thats the way it sometimes makes us all feel.My poker stars account now stands at 360 fpp's which gives me 18 freerolls at 20 fpp's a time which hopefully i can use to play me out of my downswing and it should also help to make poker fun again like it should be but best of all i no if i lose i won't be looking upon it as the end of the world as there will always be a freeroll tomorrow.Hope the rest of you guys make a profit and don't suffer to many bad beats.
 

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