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99 vs Raises

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99 vs Raises - Tue Mar 20, 2012, 07:04 AM
(#1)
jamesthefish's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 30
Ok, so I usually play live, but decided to take a punt at making some micromillions money without investing any cash.

This hand was early in a 3FPP+R qualifying event for MM52 - a $1 freezeout. As expected, some of the play was terrible.


Blinds are 100/200. Villain 1 is UTG+2 and has exactly 1000 chips (a starting stack). He has recently joined the table a folded his first couple of hands.

Villain 2 is in HJ with ~2100 chips. He is an absolute maniac has has made >4 rebuys already and has shoved pre-flop the last 4 hands.

I am on the dealer button with 2850 chips and have played one hand (AA) and tripled up - now on 2850.


Villain 1 raises all in to 1000 chips. Villain 2 re-raises all-in for 2100 chips. I have 99 in the D button.

At this stage, I am just below average stack (~3200) and we are still within the rebuy period. Am expecting around 200 players with at least 400 rebuys in total, so likely top 35-40 will recieve the tournament tickets.


I am relatively certain here that I am ahead of villain 2. Villain 1 I have little information on, but must give him some respect for at least two high cards (A8 upwards). Winning the pot would take me up to ~6000 chips and be in good position to cash for a ticket. Is it worth the call? I reckon there would be at least 3 overcards? The loss leaves me with 750, but a chance to rebuy for 1000.


What would you do?


Ta,

James
 
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Tue Mar 20, 2012, 09:37 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi James!

Thanks for the read info, as that really helps with getting an appropriate range into pokerstove for this one.
With villain 2 being a maniac that is shoving 5 hands in a row, I'll use basically ATC for them. Villain 1 could be a maniac, but could also be playing a much tighter range. Since it is a rebuy, I'll use about a top 20% range to start.
With these ranges, 99 has a hand equity of 42%.
To call the all-in's, I need to call 2100 into a pot that will be 5500 if I call (38%).

To get to be a breakeven EV play, villain 1 has to be playing about a top 10% hand.

Since the hand equity is going to be even or better than the pot equity, I'm going to overshove with 99 in this situation, especially in a rebuy tourney where if I win this hand, I would be in great shape to get a ticket.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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