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Micro Millions $11

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Micro Millions $11 - Tue Mar 20, 2012, 05:13 PM
(#1)
AJEI's Avatar
Since: Oct 2008
Posts: 61
We are ITM,

Rich_Richi88, only 6 hnads with him, no read.

sparta, 88 hands, VPIP 14/88 15.91% , PR 13/88 14.77%




I had 25BB when the hand started, and 18 after i got 4 bet all-in, i think I should have made my 3-bet a bit smaller, maybe around 12,500.

Now with 19 BB left, should I fold on this spot ?

If his range is only 5% then im 50/50,
if his range is QQ+, AKs, its 38/62.
If its QQ+, its 35/65.
And if KK+, its 23/77.

I am getting 2 to 1 to call. Should I fold on this spot and wait or call looking for a nice stack and possible deep run ?

Thanks
 
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Tue Mar 20, 2012, 09:29 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Hi AJEI,

It's a call in my eyes. The stats you give make the guy look like a typical TAG. I don't think the guy is ever folding AA, KK, or QQ with the action in front of him. I think it's fair to say that he might shove AK, so we'll say he's only shoving AKs, instead of all combinations of AK (which would assume he's always shoving AK).

Already, we've established that the range he's shoving is wide enough to make it +EV to call (you're 37% to win at worst vs. his range and you only need 34%). I don't think any more analysis is required, since folding here isn't going to guarantee you any +EV spots in future to make up for the value you'd be passing up now, and you're not close enough to any pay jumps to make calling potentially -EV due to ICM considerations.

I say call, and hope he misclick shoved 83o.
 
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Tue Mar 20, 2012, 09:53 PM
(#3)
AJEI's Avatar
Since: Oct 2008
Posts: 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post

I say call, and hope he misclick shoved 83o.

lol wished that would have been the case, after looking it over and over I think even beeing a 2 to 1 underdog, and since I am getting 2 to 1, and considering there is no significant difference in the prize from 1000th to 100th place I think the call was ok. UNLESS I would be certain his range would ONLY be KK, AA, and I think that would really be too tight

Thanks
 
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Wed Mar 21, 2012, 03:04 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,506
(Head Trainer)
Hey AJ,

I think it's a call, it may be close but I don't think we can exclude JJ and AKo from his range at the very least, so yeah it's not an exciting spot to be in but I call.

I think 3b/folding AKs on a 25bb stack is just not tenable unless the circumstances are quite extreme. This is close, but not quite close enough imo.

Dave


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