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Tough spot on the turn

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Tough spot on the turn - Fri Mar 23, 2012, 09:04 AM
(#1)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141


I just sat down, 17 hands in.
The villain did play one hand so far. He can´t be found when searching his name so I reckon he is a regular.
the two callers PFR are weak players
 
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Fri Mar 23, 2012, 09:06 AM
(#2)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
perhaps I should raised more PFR,
I was going to fold to a 4bet.
Haggys folded the turn
 
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Fri Mar 23, 2012, 11:41 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi Sjekkkk,

I agree that if we're going to 3b here we should be making it a bit larger given that there's 2 cold callers already. I don't think we should ever be 3b/folding on 100 bb stacks with QQ unless we have some good reads that we don't have here, so once we take this line I'm willing to stack it off preflop.

On the flop we've bloated the preflop pot enough that the SPR is below 2, I don't think I'm planning to fold an overpair of queens with this low an spr generally. Now it's a multiway pot so that does change the commitment decision a bit with the increased chance for players to hit hard... for instance if the OR check-raises us, the next guy check-raise-3b jams, and the next guy check/calls off, I think QQ becomes a really easy fold even on a low spr.

As played, I am calling. Just trying to range the opponent, JJ seems to be the biggest concern. AA or KK are possible but he chose not to 4b with 2 active players still behind him pre and I'd expect a 4b usually in that spot. But I think he can also have just a jack here, or a hand like TT that he thinks is good, or be semi-bluffing with diamonds. The reason is your flop c-bet is really small relative to the pot, it looks a bit like AK leaving itself room to get away, and if the villain peeled the flop with a jack, he may decide it's good. His line in this case is not unreasonable.. he flat calls to see 1) how the other 2 players who "checked to the raiser" react, so he can still get away from weaker one pair hands if one of them jams and 2) no ace or king hit the turn, then he goes with it. It's also a nice turn jam size to apply maximum pressure.

So yeah, not terribly excited about it, but I think without reads it's generally long term profitable to make this call.

Dave


Head Live Trainer
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Fri Mar 23, 2012, 03:58 PM
(#4)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
thanks dave,

I did call and the villain had KK.... I had the same read as you did, and when I saw the replayer I noticed my 3bet was a bit small..

the reason I bet so low on the flop is that I want to rep AK and get value from any kind of Jx, the flop in general is unlikely to be hit, and people should fold if they haven´t hit anything
 

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