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can i really fold in this spot

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can i really fold in this spot - Sun Mar 25, 2012, 02:51 PM
(#1)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
this was about the 15th hand of the tourney . Villain open shoved utg on the very first hand , and had re raised all in from the button to a raise from MP with AT .to me he looked the type of player that is going to shove or call a shove with any ace or any pair . his 30xBB bet on this hand basically told me what sort of hand i thouhgt he had . but if i flat call i cant fold on the flop if he puts me all in can I , and if he checks to me on the flop i have to go all in anyway and hope he calls and my aces hold up . so i thought the only thing to do was go re raise all in . I mean i cant fold pre flop here just because he has me covered can i ?


Poker Stars Freeroll No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30/t60 Blinds - 9 players - View hand 1701768
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: t2840 47.33 BBs
SB: t2180 36.33 BBs
BB: t2540 42.33 BBs
UTG: t2560 42.67 BBs
UTG+1: t2610 43.50 BBs
UTG+2: t4845 80.75 BBs
Hero (MP1): t2210 36.83 BBs
MP2: t2350 39.17 BBs
CO: t2965 49.42 BBs

Pre Flop: (t90) Hero is MP1 with A :spade: A :heart:
UTG calls t60, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises to t1800, Hero raises to t2210 all in, 6 folds, UTG+2 calls t410

Flop: (t4570) 7 :heart: K :club: J :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t4570) 2 :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t4570) 9 :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

he had pocket 9s . iwish this would stop happening to me
 
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Sun Mar 25, 2012, 03:00 PM
(#2)
AceKingBlows's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 101
BronzeStar
Fistpump shove (with QQ+?), unlucky result.

Same thing has happened to me a couple of times today - maddening, but part of the game.
 
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Sun Mar 25, 2012, 03:50 PM
(#3)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
frasier just make a note on the guy and hope you see a lot of him and that he has the ability to reload (a lot). Because he's going to need to.

Anyone making a 30bb raise here,Hell anywhere,doesn't know much more about this game than what beats what and I'm willing to guess they may get bamboozled on that as well. If you have 30bb behind you one doesn't need,nor even want,to be shipping their stack. This player has even more. If this player has any kind of volume at all in their results I'm betting they're putrid.

Nothing really to analyze in your play...of course you can NEVER fold in this spot. The villain isn't playing poker,more like Bingo. But if they never hit doing this they would stop doing it so we just have to roll with the punches.
 
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Sun Mar 25, 2012, 05:01 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
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Hi Frasier!

I'm basically never folding in this spot and I totally agree with Moxie about making a note on this opp and hoping that they are at my table very often.
When I get AA or KK, I want the opps to be making a large raise so that I can shove over them, as by doing this, they are value owning themselves.

99 is going to win here 1 in 5 times (20% equity) and unfortunately they hit one of them.

Good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Mar 25, 2012, 06:06 PM
(#5)
AceKingBlows's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 101
BronzeStar
KK is your min req for stacking off here JWK? Just curious, I suppose that makes sense since people frequently make this type of "scared" raise with AK and if you shove over with QQ you're flipping for your tournament life 15 hands in.

Though in my own experience opponents like this will so often show up with JJ 10-10 9-9 and even 8-8 (pairs they feel uncomfortable playing postflop) here that I still think shipping with QQ could be +EV too?
 
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Sun Mar 25, 2012, 06:12 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
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Hi AK!

It'll depend on the type of tourney as to where I'd draw the line on calling. It'll be totally different based on whether it's a league game, cash tourney, or if I have any notes on the opp. If I know the opp will be shoving a wider range, then I'll call with QQ, AK, maybe AQ or JJ too. It'll depend on the situation.

If it's a league game, since points are the only thing that matters in them... the majority of the time I'll even fold KK here.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Mar 25, 2012, 09:55 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi!

Nope, you can never fold here because you are all in pre flop

About the only time you could fold here is if you are in a bubble situation of a flat pay structure (like a sattie where everyone gets the same ticket when itm regardless of stacks), and when your stack is large enough to give you better than around 95% chance to get itm by folding everything.

In this VERY SPECIFIC case you might be trading a 5% chance to bust for as much as around a 21% to 22% chance to bust for chips that are not needed.

Any other spot, this is a clear "ship it".

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Mar 26, 2012, 05:02 AM
(#8)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
hi folks

I am never foldng or flatting here , but i was curious if anyone would consider folding in this spot because it was so early in the tourney .

Moxie dont worry I took a note of this player and look forward to meeting him again . His open shove on the first hand was i really needed to know about this player .
 
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Mon Mar 26, 2012, 11:45 AM
(#9)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
hi folks

I am never foldng or flatting here , but i was curious if anyone would consider folding in this spot because it was so early in the tourney .

Moxie dont worry I took a note of this player and look forward to meeting him again . His open shove on the first hand was i really needed to know about this player .
Hi Fraiserbeams...

Early on in an MTT, the advantage you gain in chipping up early is just too great to even consider mucking in this spot.

There is an old question that MAY argue for a fold of AA pre flop in an early point of an MTT though. The situation that is not a bubble in a flat pay structure event where you COULD consider it is this:

1st hand of the WSOP Main Event.

A MIN CASH represents a HUGE increase in your total bank roll (such as if you sattied in cheaply, and a 19k min cash or so increases your total playing amount by 19 times+)

You are in the BB, and EVERY player at the table has moved all in pre flop ahead of you.

In this case, the sheer size of the field does not guarentee you a cash even if you add 9 times your stack on the very first hand by winning.

Your net chance against the FIELD in this hand is less than 50/50, and if you call and lose you will be out ANY chance to make a significant cash for your bank roll; it doesn't matter WHO busts you, losing to anyone knocks you out.

If you FOLD, your stack is still quite deep, and the levels are long enough, you stand a pretty good chance of finding better spots later on to pick up chips you'd need to make the money.

Change any of these factors though, and the 9 times chip you you could make as the "favorite" of all the players all in is certainly worth the risk of an early bust.

To me, the chance to double a 36BB stack and then be "bullet proof" at my table (meaning no one can knock me out with 1 suck out) is CERTAINLY worth the risk of fading 20%!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 

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