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NL16 QJs river play?

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NL16 QJs river play? - Sun Mar 25, 2012, 03:59 PM
(#1)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
PokerStars Hand #77800971706: Hold'em No Limit ($0.08/$0.16 USD) - 2012/03/25 21:36:45 CET [2012/03/25 15:36:45 ET]
Table 'Lalage VI' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Dasha_1989 ($9.90 in chips)
Seat 2: optim787 ($6.43 in chips)
Seat 3: Ko1in ($8.08 in chips)
Seat 4: tadejusce ($16.24 in chips)
Seat 5: Nocco88 ($22.90 in chips)
Seat 6: to_je_fer ($8.33 in chips)
Ko1in: posts small blind $0.08
tadejusce: posts big blind $0.16
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Nocco88 [Qs Js]
Nocco88: raises $0.32 to $0.48
to_je_fer: calls $0.48
Dasha_1989: folds
optim787: folds
Ko1in: folds
tadejusce: folds
*** FLOP *** [5c 9d Qd]
Nocco88: bets $0.80
to_je_fer: calls $0.80
*** TURN *** [5c 9d Qd] [Tc]
Nocco88: bets $2.40
to_je_fer: calls $2.40
*** RIVER *** [5c 9d Qd Tc] [6d]
Nocco88: bets $4.96
to_je_fer: calls $4.65 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($0.31) returned to Nocco88

The villain is unknown. The river card is very bad for me, but he hasn't got too much money left, so I just bet the river. Check/fold here is better?
 
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Sun Mar 25, 2012, 07:39 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi again Nocco!

The SPR set up pre flop (just under 7) does not really favor stacking off with a top pair or over pair hand, but it is pretty CLOSE.

On he river, the likeliest hands you are ahead of have pretty much all gotten there, so I think a check/fold as played is probably the best you can do.

- you can't "love" bet/fold as any jam lays you too fat a price.
- you can't "love" putting him in with the 3rd d and losing an extra $4.65, and you are pretty much never folding out better than your hand in this size of pot (MAYBE better q's fold, but that's about it).
- you can't "love" a check/call, because the pot has built to the point that you are pretty sure to see an all in anyway.


I do think when the villain flatted your flop bet, your vulnerable top pair hand MAYBE should have thought a bit more about pot control when you picked up the OESD on the turn. At that point, you picked up some outs in case he was on a better hand, and you might have been able to call a bet he might make on a float.

Don't get me wrong, I "get" why you would bet the turn as well, but that is the point you set up your tricky spot on the river. If you were not pretty sure what you were going to do on the river, then a check/call on the turn might have been better.

All in all, a VERY tricky spot with no info at all, and I can certainly get why you might act as you do on the river in HOPES he was just calling down on AQ/KQ and will fold. But I think I would prefer the check/fold to save the $4.65 in a somewhat hopeless spot.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Mar 26, 2012, 05:43 AM
(#3)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
Okay, thank you I would like to ask that, what is the good play on the river if the river card is a blank?
 
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Mon Mar 26, 2012, 10:15 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nocco88 View Post
Okay, thank you I would like to ask that, what is the good play on the river if the river card is a blank?
Hi again!

That can be tough without info too...

In that spot, since the opp called 2 bullets, I MAY be partial to check/calling.

That way I might lose the max (if he shoves) and I call, but I am not allowing a 2 street float to bluff me off the pot I have built either. I may not lose the max though, as he may be willing to only put around a half pot bet out there too (mainly because of the straight threat).

I think, lacking info, there is enough of a chance he is flush drawing that after 2 streets of building a pot on my top pair, I'd not want to give up my weak-ish top pair on a river blank very often at all. As I am pretty unlikely to get called by worse on a river blank though, there really is no need to bet again.

I would essentially have showdown value with a QJ only, so I'd really want to get there if I were betting early in the hopes he was drawing.

Again though, since I do lack info, I really would be partial to trying to pot control a little bit so that I can leave a fold of a marginal top pair as a cheaper possibility. That may seem a bit "careful", but when oop vs an unknown opp we cannot range effective, nor against whom we can really guess at the type of mistakes he might make, being careful and possibly folding the best hand is not really a crime in my opinion.

We can probably find a BETTER spot to tangle with him later on.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Mar 26, 2012, 12:26 PM
(#5)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
Okay, thank you very much again. I got it. And what is the case when I have AQ here? Can I bet the river? And what if the villain isn't an unknown but a fish?
 
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Mon Mar 26, 2012, 02:47 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nocco88 View Post
Okay, thank you very much again. I got it. And what is the case when I have AQ here? Can I bet the river? And what if the villain isn't an unknown but a fish?
Hi again...

I am gunna start with the last part first...


If the guy is NOT "unknown", but a "fish", I have to ask: What FLAVOR of fish is he?

Brook Trout tastes a lot different than Salmon, and the sorts of "mistakes" one fish makes will be quite different from those another might make. A clear way to guiding yourself through a poker hand is to follow the REM process (Range - Equity - Maximize).

- The more info we have, the better we can range our opponents.

- The more info we have, the better we can determine our equity for various actions against our opponents.

- The clearer the notion we have of our equity versus all their tendencies, the better we can work to MAXIMIZE our equity.

As played, we lack any info on the opp except what we SAW him do; he called 2 rather stout bets.

In that case, a hand like top pair/jack kicker has to REALLY shrink up in value on a board with this many threats. My preference in those types of spots are to give my opponents CREDIT for being decent players, and to use what I might do in their spots as my ranging ideas.

To me, this means:

There is a strong likelihood this opp has flopped a set, or holds a VERY STRONG draw like JTd if he can withstand 2 barrels. Next most likely (in my opinion) is that he holds something like 87d/86d that started out with "decent" 2 way draw value, and improved its draw value on the turn. Finally, I put him on a Q.

There is also a rare chance this guy simply has ZERO CLUE and is trying to bluff you, or that he is trying to call down on something stupid like 2nd pair or a gut shot that spiked a 6, but without info to say an opp is that bad it is really hard to give any of that much credit in my opinion. An over pair played like this is pretty spew-y as well (it should certainly act more aggressively earlier), so we also have to discount that somewhat.

When we get to the river, and see the 6d, the BULK of his range that consisted of draws pretty much ALL got there. Since there is so little we can beat, a check/fold is probably the best we can do.

If we get to the river and do NOT see a diamond, we have to think about what hands the villain might hold that can CALL a river bet if we make it. Of those, QJ beats none (if we "assume" that only Q's with another broadway are in an unknown micro player's pre flop call range). But since we built the pot earlier, we can pretty much feel we are going to HAVE to call at least some of the time. I'd rather check/call and hope the villain bets half pot for value, than bet and ENSURE he shoves for value, or folds giving me nothing extra. I really doubt we could get an opp who will ride AQ/KQ this far to fold to any river bet anyway...

If we get to the river, do not see a diamond, and hold AQ, then our only worries are a slow play of some sort, or a weird river spike. In this case we are almost certain to call a shove (if only because we built up the pot and started out pretty close to the right SPR to stack off with top/top), so we may as well hope to get some value from KQ/QJ by ensuring that shove.

This is all assuming we do not have specific info though, and if we DO have that info, even if that this guy is a "fish", our best actions have to take his particular "fishy-ness" into account...and THAT can vary widely player to player!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Mar 26, 2012, 04:49 PM
(#7)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
Okay I understand. Thanks for the very detailed analysis
 

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