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NL16 QQ preflop and postflop play?

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NL16 QQ preflop and postflop play? - Sun Mar 25, 2012, 05:04 PM
(#1)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $21.30 (133.1 bb)
UTG: $16.96 (106 bb)
MP: $22.11 (138.2 bb)
Hero (CO): $16 (100 bb)
BTN: $16.37 (102.3 bb)
SB: $37.83 (236.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q:spade: Q:heart:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.48, BTN folds, SB calls $0.40, BB raises to $1.44, Hero calls $0.96, SB calls $0.96

Flop: ($4.32) J:spade: 8:spade: 3:club: (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $2.24, Hero calls $2.24, SB folds

Turn: ($8.80) 4:diamond: (2 players)
BB bets $4.64, Hero calls $4.64

River: ($18.08) 5:club: (2 players)
BB bets $8, Hero calls $7.68 and is all-in

BB's stats: VPIP: 66 PFR:33 AF:2,3 3B:0 H:25
SB's stats: VPIP:58 PFR:4 AF:1,3 H:97

What is the good play here preflop and postflop?
 
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Sun Mar 25, 2012, 05:35 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nocco88 View Post
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $21.30 (133.1 bb)
UTG: $16.96 (106 bb)
MP: $22.11 (138.2 bb)
Hero (CO): $16 (100 bb)
BTN: $16.37 (102.3 bb)
SB: $37.83 (236.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q:spade: Q:heart:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.48, BTN folds, SB calls $0.40, BB raises to $1.44, Hero calls $0.96, SB calls $0.96

Flop: ($4.32) J:spade: 8:spade: 3:club: (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $2.24, Hero calls $2.24, SB folds

Turn: ($8.80) 4:diamond: (2 players)
BB bets $4.64, Hero calls $4.64

River: ($18.08) 5:club: (2 players)
BB bets $8, Hero calls $7.68 and is all-in

BB's stats: VPIP: 66 PFR:33 AF:2,3 3B:0 H:25
SB's stats: VPIP:58 PFR:4 AF:1,3 H:97

What is the good play here preflop and postflop?
Hi nocco88!

Welcome to the Hand Analysis forum!

Versus BB you only have 25 hands of info, so the fact he has a 0 3bet % really wouldn't trouble me that much. He is seeing the flop on 2/3rds of hands, and raising half the time upon entering. He may not feel the "need" for a premium hand to 3bet a CO raiser.

The SB is pretty wide to call as well, and not nearly as aggro, so the fact he calls to take the flop doesn't worry me much at all either.

As such, I think I would favor a solid 4bet with QQ here, something on the order of $4.00 to go. This sets up a low SPR going to the flop which favors you getting the rest of your chips in early in the hand on any over pair. If the BB 5bets, you can re-assess, but that is going to be pretty rare I'd think.

On the flop, you still hold an over pair, but there is a the chance you are facing draws that could call. The 4bet to $4 pre flop would set you up with a single pot size C-Bet left in your stack if both villains call, so you could then pretty easily get the rest of your chips in. The larger pre flop pot created would serve to lower the call standards for your opp's simply because the pot would be too large to "give up" on.

Since they will quite often be BEHIND your over pair if/when they call, you would have set yourself up for the best shot at getting max value, with the minimum of risk in my opinion. If they fold, at least you got the rather large 4bet amount form them pre flop...

If only 1 villain calls a 4bet pre, any C-Bet by you that gets call easily sets you up to get your stack in on the turn.

As played...

You still have a pretty low SPR going to the flop, but you've increased your risk quite a bit because you cannot get your stack in as easily early, and get called by worse.

When the villain barrels you on the flop, I think a raise for value is likely to only serve to "clue him in" on the strength of your hand (simply because any standard type raise would be to around half your remaining stack almost), and this could set up a check/fold of the turn on any J or flush draw which does not come.

When the villain barrels the turn this is the point I think you could have reasonably shoved. You have a bit over half your start stack in the pot, and it would be quite difficult for the villain to fold any hand he could reasonably have barreled twice here; A lot of those hands are going to be worse than your QQ.

I see your flat on the turn as simply increasing your risk TOO MUCH, either for a draw out if you are ahead, or for a loss of value if a scary card comes for the villain and he cannot bet the river.

...but then I also see not 4betting opponents showing a pattern this wide as being a pretty big risk to take, either in getting sucked out on or in not getting maximum value from your QQ. So I think I'd prefer a pre flop 4bet myself...

Hope it helps!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sun Mar 25, 2012 at 06:09 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 25, 2012, 06:16 PM
(#3)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
First of all, thanks for the analysis. What I experienced at the micro stakes, that usually when people 3-bet or squeeze that's a very strong hand (KK,AA or AK). His 3bet stat is 0 so far, so if I 4-bet here with QQ then I should fold it to a 5-bet or a shove? That's doesn't make sense for me. I think if I 4-bet here, then I should call the all-in, or shove when he 5-bet me. Because if I fold my QQ here then I turned my QQ into a bluff.
 
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Sun Mar 25, 2012, 07:05 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nocco88 View Post
First of all, thanks for the analysis. What I experienced at the micro stakes, that usually when people 3-bet or squeeze that's a very strong hand (KK,AA or AK). His 3bet stat is 0 so far, so if I 4-bet here with QQ then I should fold it to a 5-bet or a shove? That's doesn't make sense for me. I think if I 4-bet here, then I should call the all-in, or shove when he 5-bet me. Because if I fold my QQ here then I turned my QQ into a bluff.
That is the problem really with minimal info...

I advocate the 4bet for value. I say this because he is raising half his hands. We can realistically assume he is not 3betting as wide a range as this, but QQ is still going to have great value versus a likely 3bet range of say 15%. Down to about a 2.5% 5bet range, you are going to have 50%+ equity to get them in with QQ.

Whether your minimal hand info is ENOUGH to know if he might 5bet tighter than 2.5 or looser than that becomes the question. I simply cannot answer that though, as I was not the one playing.

I DO know that in the face of only 25 hands, and with 0 hands in this specific situation, I THINK the info is pretty much there to assume this guy would 3bet light; regardinless of what "other" micro stakes donks do. Not all micro donks have 66/33 VPiP/PFR afterall...

Since it should be pretty rare that he will have a 5bet hand, and since you set yourself up better to get the max value out of him if he is willing to flat the 4bet loose, I left it "open ended" as to what you do IF you are 5bet.

Versus this guy, I think QQ is enough of a hand to go for it quite often if 5bet though...but you may not feel the same.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sun Mar 25, 2012 at 07:10 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 25, 2012, 07:19 PM
(#5)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
Okay, thank you very much for the answer
 

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