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straight draw | 90 man

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straight draw | 90 man - Mon Mar 26, 2012, 03:26 PM
(#1)
CZDonkey's Avatar
Since: Mar 2010
Posts: 60
can I check raise AI these small draw? it's somewhere in the midlle of tournaments.



 
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Mon Mar 26, 2012, 05:02 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
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Hi CZDonkey!

The bottom line is NO to both. Here's why for each hand.

Hand 1 (46s): Preflop, I would check and see the flop. The flop comes with an OESD for me but with two clubs. This gives me what normally would be 8 outs for the OESD, but here the two clubs can easily be compromised by a flush, giving me 6 outs. 6 outs gives me 12% hand equity to the turn and 24% hand equity if all-in.
To make a bet on the flop, I would need to bet less than my 12% hand equity to make the play a +EV play for me. This would only be 177 chips and even a min bet is 250. Therefore, I'm checking.
The opp now bets 500, so first, let's see about a call. To call would be 500 chips into a pot that would be 2475 (20%) while my hand only has 12% equity. Since the pot % is higher, I do not want to call.
If I shove, it'll be 2340 into a pot that will be 6155 if they call (38%). Since I'll get to see both cards, my hand equity here is 24%. Once again, the pot equity is higher than the hand equity... so this is not a good play either.

The only option left is to fold, which is the play that I will make.

Hand 2 (25o): Preflop, I'm again checking and seeing the flop. The same scenario comes as I have an OESD, but with two spades on the board, the spade outs can easily be compromised.
To make a bet on the flop, I would need to bet less than 12% of the current pot, which is 48 chips and lower than the blind. Due to this, I'm checking.
The opp now bets 300. To call, I need to put 300 into a pot that will be 1000 (30%). This percentage is more than my 12% hand equity, so I do not want to call.
If I shove, it'll be 1290 into a pot that will be 2980 (43.3%). Since I'll get to see both cards, my hand equity is 24% (6 outs * 4% for each out). The pot percentage is higher than it is for my hand, so I do not want to shove.

The only option left is to fold, which is the play that I will make.

In both situations, it is a -EV play to call (-8% in the first hand, -18% in the second) and an even larger -EV play to shove (-14% in the first and -19.3% in the second). Since all of these plays are going to cost me chips on average, the optimum play for both in my opinion, is a 0EV play, to fold.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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