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did i do something wrong or just unlucky?

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did i do something wrong or just unlucky? - Tue Mar 27, 2012, 10:31 AM
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Austerror's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 85


recently moved to the table and hadn't seen this guy play a hand yet..
 
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Tue Mar 27, 2012, 11:46 AM
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Scarface RD's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1
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perhaps the only thing i would have done is bet more on the flop. was a scary flop for ur 7,7. Even hitting the set with the draw he was on maybe make him pay more for it. But watching the video I was thinking 10, 9 after the turn bets so maybe u were too & didnt want to believe it. Best of luck
 
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Tue Mar 27, 2012, 01:54 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Austerror View Post


recently moved to the table and hadn't seen this guy play a hand yet..
Hi Austerror...

Based on the RESULTS, you really did nothing wrong. But when we look at the REASONING for your decisions, there may be some things you can think about doing differently in my opinion...

1) Pre Flop 3bet.

You lack info on the opponent per your own admission, so how are your ranging him to know that 77 is going to play well versus his button raise range? How do you know the best way to maximize the equity you DO have may be to 3bet?

By 3betting pre flop, you set up the pot to be $1.45, and the stack to pot ratio to be really low. This means you will tend to be faced with a committment decision for the opponent's entire stack quite soon. How often do you expect 77 to be the "best hand" on the flop?

Sure, an opponent will tend to MISS the flop about 2/3rds of the time when he has un-paired cards, and sure if he has a BETTER pp than yours, the early aggression might allow you to better represent over cards, but without info on what the opponent might FOLD, a 3bet with 77 oop is quite risky.

With his $4+ behind his BTN raise, all you needed to see was about a $1.20 post flop pay off from this villain's stack to "break even" on a "cheaper" set mining shot oop. It really should not be too hard to get that from most opp's (even unknowns) if he catches a piece, so I think in this spot I'd prefer flatting to set mine, rather than bloating the pot to create a situation where the opp MIGHT bluff, or bet hard, and test us when we C-Bet on the over cards that 77 will see far more often than not.

do not get me wrong, if you HAD info on this opp, and that info said he was quite loose in his pre flop calls, and/or quite loose in his post flop calls (to the point he'd stack off COMPLETELY if you flop a set), or if you have info saying he will give up frequently to a C-Bet, there really is nothing wrong with taking an aggro line here; it DOES increase your chance to win the pot without needing to flop a set. But by your own admission, you do not have info at all...

2) Why bet the flop so small?

Any time you contemplate variation from a STANDARD PLAY, you really should have a strong reason to do so. A standard play would be to C-Bet around 1/2 to 2/3rds pot. You only bet around 28% pot...

Now again, if you have info which would lead you to believe that the opp will view this tiny bet as "weak", and ATTACK it, making that bet is a worthy risk. but again, you lack that info...

With the KJ on board here, there is a chance your opponent is on an OESD. Had he held that hand, he would have gotten a CORRECT PRICE to draw at the turn to beat you. Per the fundemental theorem of poker, any time you act in a manner which causes an opponent to play his hand as he would play it if all cards were known, you LOSE VALUE. This means had your opponent held QT, you would have LOST value with your bet.

The way you lose value by betting so small is simple:

Far more often than not, an oesd will not hit the turn. If you bet and he then folds, due to your small bet your "win" is SMALLER than it would be had the opponent been willing to call a LARGER bet.

As I said though, if you bet small because you have info that says the opp might "attack" that show of "weakness", it is a worthy risk, but you lack that info.

As played, it turns out the opp did not have an OESD, and as played your bet WAS sufficient to deny odds to the gut shot draw he actually held, but it was TOO INVITING to a call.

By betting so small, you essentially invited a much wider range of hands to stick around that could possibly out turn you (AT/QT/Q9/88/T9/KJ/K7), and you really left yourself no clue how best to possibly LIMIT your potential loss if a card that completes one of hands that could beat you from amongst this pretty wide range of WEAK draws. I will grant that once you flopped a set you probably would not have FOLDED just to the presence of one of these threat cards (not with the size pot created pre flop), but you could have possibly looked to control your loss a little better because your flop bet kept the pot smaller.

...either that, or you could have sought to charge a stiffer price to your opponent IN CASE he wanted to stick around with his weak draw.

But as I said, when we see the RESULTS, we really cannot say you did anything "wrong" here. It is just that throughout this hand it seems you "waffled" between aggression and slow playing, and then back again. Not really having the info to effectively PLAN the best route to maximizing value form this opponent, that sort of indecision can tend to hurt you...

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 02:16 PM..
 

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